UFC 241 Cormier vs Miocic II Official Bets

Dobson +110 1u
Kang -175 3u
Jodie +245 0.5u
Kenney +135 1u (made before catchweight announcement)
Assuncao +185 1.8u
Pettis -120 2.5u
Yoel -140 1.4u
DC -135 3.1u

May add Klose -170 for 1.5u

Good luck to you all.
 
Considering Sandhagens striking defense and what Lineker almost did to him anybody think Assuncao by KO for +1278 and Assuncao by Sub for +1000 are crazy? 1u on Assuncao by KO if he lands a nice check hook it might be over, either way for all his range Lineker was tagging him with hooks
 
Sandhagen is going to KO/TKO Assunção I think to earn a title shot. Marlon got his vs Cejudo by finishing Assunção with a guillotine...

Sandhagen has 5 finishes in his last 6 fights btw with the exception being John Lineker. Cory is a beast looking for the finish. Think the props on him are crazy to not bet right now. +1000 for Sandhagen go finish him in round 2? I’ll take that.
 
Sandhagen is going to KO/TKO Assunção I think to earn a title shot. Marlon got his vs Cejudo by finishing Assunção with a guillotine...

Sandhagen has 5 finishes in his last 6 fights btw with the exception being John Lineker. Cory is a beast looking for the finish. Think the props on him are crazy to not bet right now. +1000 for Sandhagen go finish him in round 2? I’ll take that.
Yeah Marlon finished Assuncao but he also almost chopped down Cejudo's legs in round one and I favored Cejudo coming in. Sandhagen also finished his last fight on the losing side of a guillotine... and got booed when he "won" the decision. My bets are 1u Assuncao KO 1U and 3u Assuncao NSC. I don't doubt Sandhagen can win but I can't bet on him with his striking defense and I think the Brazilian will be tough to put away
 
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I took Smith/Worthy Under 1½ at -182. Khama Worthy is in on short notice and has been KOed quickly multiple times against an opponent in Devonte Smith who has a lot of fast knockouts.
 
I got
$30 on Nate at 2.1 U
$20 on Stipe at 2.25 U
$15 on Costa at 2.1 U
$15 on Assuncao at 2.75 U
 
In Lake Tahoe, I got some terrible drunk bets for you guys.

$30 on Cormier, Pettis, Romero, Sandhagen, Brunson to win $462.75

$20 on Romero by decision for $110

$10 on Cormier to end it round 5 for $210.

Might go back to drop some better bets tomorrow while I'm not drinking.
 
3 units Costa +130
2 units Nate +115
4 units Stipe +125
 
Cormier -133 $750
Cormier/Miocic O1.5 -184 $250

Diaz +140 $250
Diaz/Pettis GTD -148 $450

Costa DEC +650 $70

Smith/Worthy U1.5 -167 $1000
Smith/Worthy U1min +895 $20

Klose -160 $750
Klose/Giagos GTD -225 $175

Kenney +130 $400

Esquibel +245 $500
Esquibel/Cifers GTD -350 $555

Kang -180 $750
Kang/Davis GTD -134 $200

Dobson +137 $750

I blindly bet Diaz when it opened and still haven't taped, may just freeroll that. A few spots I wish I passed, lowered my Dobson action a tad. Really wanted to bet Heinisch and Sandhagen, may settle for -140 on Ian, but I need -170 area for Cory. I did fit him into a little juiced "lotto"

Screenshot_20190816-165920_Chrome.jpg
 
2.5U Romero @ 1.78
0.5U Romero RD3 @ 7.15
1U Sandhagen @ 1.52
1U Pettis/Diaz FDGTD @ 2.46


£5 Free bet parlay
Klose/Giagos FGTD, Romero KO, Sandhagen KO @ 17.29
 
Stipe ML - 1u for 1.2u

Pettis ML - 2u for 1.56u
FGTD - 1u for 1.05u

CostaR1/2 Romero R3 - 1u for 2u
Yoel R3/Dec - .5u for 1.5u
Yoel R3 - .25u for 2.25u
R3 finish - .25u for 1.25u

Benitez - 1u for 2.73u
FGTD - 1u for 1.03u

Assuncao ML - 1u for 1.4u
Assuncao r3/dec - .5u for 1.3u
FOTN - .5u for 4.25u

Manny Sub - 1u for 1.4u

Esquibel ML - 1.5u for 3u
Esquibel points - .5u for 1.5u

Davis ML - 1u for 1.38u

Thought I bet Mazo as well at dog odds but cant find it so mustnt have
Looking forward to this one good luck all!
 
241.jpg Worst bet on the card: Kyung Ho Kang. You have to be square as fuck to bet on this guy at this point. Davis is huge for 135. Kang finds ways to lose close fights, and nearly got KO'ed by Ishihara.

Best bet on the card: Ian Heinisch. The guy has looked absolutely fantastic against two athletic wrestlers in Shoeface and Ferreira. Over the hill brunson has a puncher's chance here and little more.

I do like Klose as well. While Giagos has looked much improved, Klose is on a different level.
 
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Bet stars
Mazo -110 $412/$374.55

Golden nugget
Dobson +115 $366/$420.90

Golden nugget
Kenney Berm goes dec +170 $255.25/$433.92
Dk
Kenny Bermudez no dec -162 $425/$263.50

Daniel Cormier -148 $444/$300

Fan duel
Pettis Diaz doesn’t start rd 3 +250 $40/$100
Pointsbet
Pettis Diaz starts rd 3 -233 $98/$42.14

Fd
Diaz Pettis to dec +108 $92.39/$99.78
Draftkings
Diaz Pettis no dec +115 $89/$102.35

Fd
diaz ends in points +100 $100/$100
Dk
Diaz no dec $93/$106.95

Fan duel $10/$261.32
Daniel Cormier by dec +470
Khabib -430
Donald Cerrone +192
Joanna -310
 
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Cormier 3u @ 1.70ish

Yoel 2u @ 1.70ish

Pettis 2u @ 1.70ish

Cifers/Esquibel GTD + Smith / Worthy ITD 3u @ 1.50ish

<DCWhoa>
 
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2u for 2u Diaz probably just a fade on Pettis but I like the style match up

3u for 5u Assuncao NSC
1u for 11u Assuncao KO Cory probably wins a decision but I don't think it'll be an easy night

Dogs parlay
2u for 7.5u Miocic + Costa

4u for 6u Romero ML + Smith Worthy u1.5
 
2u for 5.5u
Klose + Heinsich + Smith/Worthy U1.5
 
Haven't postet my bets in here like forever...
here we go:

2,5u Benitez 3,90
2,5u Romero 1,63
2,5u Heinisch 1,65
2,5u Pettis 1,87
2,5u Assuncao 2,40
2,5u Cormier 1,72
2,5u Main Event O2.5 2,17
2,5u Klose 1,64
2,5u Smith/Worthy ITD 1,22

Kenney and Dobson at dogs out seem to be fine bets as well but I have so much exposure already that I'll rather not put more money on this card
 
DC ML - 5u for 3.57u (-140)

Pettis ML - 3u for 2.73u (-110)

Costa ML - 1u for 1.4u (+140)
Costa Decision - 0.5u for 2.75u (+550)
Over 1.5 Rounds - 4u for 3.1u (-130)

Heinisch ML - 5u for 2.86u (-175)

Sandhagen ML - 3u for 1.67u (-180)
Assuncao NSC - 0.5u for 0.8u (+160)

Kenney ML - 3u for 3.65u (+122)
Kenney Decision - 0.5u for 1.25u (+250)

Klose ML - 5u for 2.94u (-170)
Klose Decision - 1u for 1u (+100)
Klose Round 3 - 0.25u for 4.75u (+1900)

Davis ML - 1u for 1.75u (+175)

Cifers ML - 3u for 1.11u (-270)
Esquibel ML - 0.5u for 1.1u (+220)
Esquibel Decision - 0.48u for 1.5u (+315)

ML: Cifers + DC - 0.51u for 0.67u
O1 Round: Klose-Giagos + Sandhagen-Assuncao + Pettis-Diaz + Cifers-Esquibel - 1.66u for 1u


Unit size going up after this event; win or lose.
Tidied up my Cifers action before I convince myself Esquibel is major value. I want nothing to do with that shit. Also forgot I had a shitty parlay with Cifers too. Will probably lose a bunch live betting it anyways because MMA judges.
 
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$250 Diaz (SC=NA) +100 to win 250

$50 Romero Dec. +630 to win 315
$50 Romero R3 +900 to win 450

$75 Benitez +300 to win 225

$500 Brunson +175 to win 875
$100 Brunson (SC=NA) +150 to win 150
$25 Brunson - Heinisch Draw +7500 to win 1875

$200 Assunçao +200 to win 400
$100 Assunçao (SC=NA) +160 to win 160

$700 Kenney +145 to win 1015

$150 Esquibel +260 to win 390

$250 Davis +185 to win 462.5
$25 Davis KO/TKO/DQ +975 to win 243.75

$100 Dobson +125 to win 125

11x$25 RR (Brunson +130, Davis +175, Kenney +150, Assunçao +200) to win 3767.53

Fights to go distance:
$15 O 9.5 +4000 to win 600
$10 O 10.5 +27200 to win 2720
 
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