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UFC 241 Cormier vs Miocic II

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jul 29, 2019.

  1. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Definitely wide, guess his wins over Knight and Bandenay didn't age too well despite being impressive at the time.
     
  2. theTKDguy Silver Belt

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    I like your picks
     
  3. Captain Crunch28 Green Belt

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    I know he’s fought since then but didn’t showtime break his hand in October 6? I have him winning but be cautious ​
     
  4. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    No that was just an excuse to pull out of the fight because he gave up. I'm surprised the lines are set at evens considering diaz hasn't fought in 3 years which is so damn long, and the blueprints for beating him has already been laid out.
     
  5. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Wasn't broken, x ray confirmed it and he slept Wonderboy with it in March. Hand should be fine its his mentality thats questionable.

    Saying that I went 5u on Pettis -110. He should be like -300. Diaz path to victory relies on him being in great shape after 3 years and applying a consistent high pressure boxing game like he did to Johnson to win a close dec. Anything else and he gets worked at range.
     
  6. Macaque Blue Belt

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    Might bet a bit on Borrachinha out of BR pride. lol
     
  7. Masterbettor White Belt

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    Biggest bet I've ever made is on Stipe at +130. The more I think about it the happier I am with it.
     
  8. mmabettor White Belt

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    I feel the opposite with my bet on DC. Even Jon Jones believes DC will win the fight.
     
  9. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    mentally his confidence should be at an all time high after a possibly career best(or close) win, and motivation should be extremely high also as this is likely going to be a mighty big payday for him. I'm glad you agree his price is way too high, I just don't understand this price with the red flags diaz has concerning lay-off and cumulative damage taken throughout his career, and the stylistic gameplan set out so clearly with little chance he has changed his style. that said he should still be in decent shape.
     
  10. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Pettis nuts upon Diaz. Diaz gameplan's long been written, 3 year layoff and Nate has never really effectively defended kicks. Also very possible that Pettis is the better grappler.
     
  11. Yotsuya Brown Belt

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    Moroz out according Tapology...
     
  12. ApplesVild Banned Banned

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    Well that's the card ruined, they may as well cancel the whole event
     
  13. Red_2 Orange Belt

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    Costa/Pettis parlay is a must.
     
  14. When has Pettis ever implemented a leg kick style strategy and stuck to it? Especially while being pressured?

    Pettis has looked like absolute dogshit the past few years, aside from a quite lucky KO over WB, a fight in which he was getting pieced up.

    I'll take a 3 year layoff Nate over the Pettis we've seen recently anyday.
     
  15. Got this tiny parlay in pretty early, the odds have shifted quite a bit since.
     

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  16. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Yeah I'm confident in Pettis here, with his mentality I'm mostly just concerned with how he 'quit' essentially against Poirier, Ferguson and Holloway. Saying that I think Diaz won't be able to push him as far as those guys did so it's not really an issue.
     
  17. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Ferguson round 1. Ferguson a lot better at pressuring than Diaz. Pettis woes more down to matchups than personal regression. Diaz has only looked competent since he got Conor and MJ who are both favorable as hell.
     
  18. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Literally his last fight vs Wonderboy was low kicks and pressure and setting up big strikes like the fight ending one off of that.

    And Pettis looked solid vs Chiesa and Miller. He's not been what he was since he lost the belt but Pettis has still had some brilliant moments since. Aside from Barboza (who would wreck Diaz) he's still only lost to championship level guys and Diaz will need come out great and follow a very consistent pressure boxing gameplan for the duration of the fight to beat Pettis.
     
  19. theTKDguy Silver Belt

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    early thoughts

    i think duke roufus will come with a leg kick heavy gameplan against diaz. problem is, unlike rda, pettis doesn't have the wrestling to mix it up nor the hands to keep nate honest. he isn't a prolific leg kicker either. nate should be able to pressure and land volume while pettis looks to chop his legs off. this ain't going to the mat. nate's conditioning shouldn't be questioned, the guy is always in good shape (i mean, he's always running and shit so his cardio isn't a concern) and has been boxing quite a bit. Both of these guys have a clear ptv and i think the odds are right, plus i think we can all agree this is most likely going to a dec. question here is: how good pettis' boxing is? i feel he has improved but he still eats too many punches and his cardio isn't as good as nate's, pescialy if he's being pressured. i'll prob play the over/ fgtd.

    stipe vs cormier i think dc should take, think he's the better fighter BUT his latest surgery plus being out of shape a couple weeks ago and this basically being his retirement fight is no bueno. stipe IS more hungry atm and could make this interesting. this is the HW division, only takes one good shot. still, i think dc is the rightful fav, highly doubt he wins by tko in the 1st like the last one but prob a 3rd or 4th rd finish. he's too fast and agile at hw, he sees most of stipes punches coming. plus he packs good power. doubt we see much wrestling, it cancels out (in fact, i think stipe is the most likely to start a wrestling exchange out of the two, just to throw dc off, but i doubt it).

    regarding costa vs yoel, i think yoel should take this one comfortably. costa hasn't shown anything that makes me think he's at romero's level, while yoel hasn't shown any real signs of slowing down at 40 years old, besides having a hard time with the weight cut.

    Assuncao vs corey is a great matchup, prob goes to a decision. if corey is decent underdog it could be good.

    Really like klose and heinisch, fading giagos and brunson.
     
  20. Diaz beat Miller way worse than Pettis did back when Miller was younger and arguably better.

    Chiesa was a pretty favorable matchup for Pettis, not to mention he had an incredibly rough weight cut. Chiesa has god awful stand-up, worse BJJ than Pettis, and is very hittable, which led to his demise in that fight.

    I agree Barboza would obliterate Diaz.

    I remember going into the Max fight, a lot of people thought Pettis would win using the same arguments that people are using against Diaz.

    Max has 7-8 inches less reach than Diaz. I'm not saying Diaz is as good as a boxer as Max, Max has much better footwork than Nate. But Nate's boxing is literally levels ahead of Pettis.

    I just don't see a path to victory for Pettis. He'll never follow through with a leg kick heavy gameplan, and barring an early head kick KO, he's going to get beat the fuck up standing by a superior boxer, who's longer, has better cardio, and pushes a pace that Pettis can't deal with.
     

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