UFC 241 Cormier vs Miocic II

[Yotsuya]

I listened to first segment of Heavy Hands. Pretty Orwellian as eyepokes were not mentioned once even when discussing, that Stipe was fading towards the end of the round. Connor (who is a huge Cormier fan) did pick him this time because he’s the more creative fighter of the two though.

 

[And]

 

[Jordan3399]

We'll have to agree to disagree about the grappling. DC no doubt is a better wrestler, but but IMO he does not have a MMA wrestling advantage in this fight. Stipe is strong and big and has good MMA wrestling himself which IMO nullifies DCs wrestling advantage.

Again, what good MMA wrestling has Stipe shown? Do you not think Cormier could outwrestle Hunt and Ngannou? Cause I highly doubt Stipe could hang with guys like Gustafsson, Jones etc.

Even against the mutual opponent they have at HW Cormier did a lot better, Stipe struggled hard to takedown Roy Nelson but Cormier had zero issue ragdolling him cause, unlike Stipe, his chain wrestling, set ups, takedowns and pretty much everything in his MMA wrestling is better than Stipes. Stipe would shoot an awkward poorly set up shot and just end up in the clinch with Nelson throughout the fight while Cormier got him down at will. It was only late in the fight when Nelson was gassed that Stipe got even a brief TD.

 

[ill800]

Watching Dobson get outboxed at times by Lauren mueller

I favor Mazo but really wouldn’t feel comfortable betting either at current odds

Dobson could decide to wrestle and if that happens Mazo is in trouble

It’s a clear path to victory and Dobson would be dumb to try to stand with Mazo for 3 rounds

 

[Vir_Ars]

Watching Dobson get outboxed at times by Lauren mueller

I favor Mazo but really wouldn’t feel comfortable betting either at current odds

Dobson could decide to wrestle and if that happens Mazo is in trouble

It’s a clear path to victory and Dobson would be dumb to try to stand with Mazo for 3 rounds

She is also coming from an injury and pretty sure less training because of that.

 

[Larthus]

Stipe isn’t even that good lmao

Cormier gang will feast this weekend

 

[BigNick100]

You guys can go back and forth all day about this DC/Stipe fight. The fight didn't even go a full round, hard to take a ton from that fight and apply it to the rematch.

Both guys are a year older, and could be slower. DC returning from back surgery and from basically doing no training since that back surgery until May of this year and having to start a training camp the heaviest he has ever weighed. Stipe doing who the fuck knows for the last year.

One thing for sure, Stipe is aware of being exposed when breaking the clinch now so the surprise factor won't be there.

Should be a great fight regardless.

 

[Austisthunder]

Two things:

A. Bermudez isnt a positional grappler, hes a sub hunter, meaning the weight discrepancy isnt as large a deal as it could be

B. I wonder wat body fat % DC is at vs Stipe

 

[Oblivian]

I get the size thing that people bring up between Stipe and DC but I think people forget that Stipe picked up Josh Barnett and slammed him. DC was fighting heavyweight before he came to the UFC.

I really wonder when the size thing will stop with DC. How many HW fights does he have now? He's obviously shown that it has not been an issue. We're also seeing a lot of people being successful moving up in weight. Stipe, a smaller HW, is really going to be the guy to highlight size being an issue? I'm not really seeing it.

 

[Broe.]

Two things:

A. Bermudez isnt a positional grappler, hes a sub hunter, meaning the weight discrepancy isnt as large a deal as it could be

Yeah yeah i heard the same thing when he fought morales and people said it wouldnt improve his takedowns and then he got morales down in 30 seconds.....

 

[TrueAscension]

In the very first clinch stipe controlled DC for about 1 minute and a half. After that every time DC tried to clinch he couldn't do anything grappling wise, just strike, which worked really well since he has the faster hands.

A minute and a half is what you are building the narrative around bud.. and you're speaking as if Cormier was in serious trouble..

 

[TrueAscension]

I know, I've seen the breakdown. It was a great game plan. But the cat is out of the bag now. I'd assume stipe has been working his ass off to avoid it happening again.

After watching the fight for a third time, DCs eye pokes were nasty. Several times he flung his fingers at stipes eyes, and the one that caught stipe in the eye was legit inexcusable on purpose.

The cat is out of the bag? You think DC might not have yet another cat in a bag? You can work to avoid something but that doesn't mean it will succeed.. I will agree with you on the eye poke. That was inexcusable and Stipe could be even more motivated to fuck DC up because of it. That doesn't mean he will.

 

[Spounman]

I really wonder when the size thing will stop with DC. How many HW fights does he have now? He's obviously shown that it has not been an issue. We're also seeing a lot of people being successful moving up in weight. Stipe, a smaller HW, is really going to be the guy to highlight size being an issue? I'm not really seeing it.

I think he has around 10 fights at heavyweight. He fought Mir and Roy Nelson and Soa Palelei and Josh Barnett and Jeff Monson.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Watching Dobson get outboxed at times by Lauren mueller

I favor Mazo but really wouldn’t feel comfortable betting either at current odds

Dobson could decide to wrestle and if that happens Mazo is in trouble

It’s a clear path to victory and Dobson would be dumb to try to stand with Mazo for 3 rounds

I was initially going to bet very big on Mazo.

However, after watching tape, I decided to put a mere 1u on Mazo at +115. Dobson actually has some legitimate striking skills. She can throw competent straight rights, right hooks, and even a respectable (if painfully telegraphed) right hook, all of which are rare on this level of WMMA. Her jab is worse than Mazo's and a little shorter, but it might have slightly more impact.

In fact, from the standpoint of raw skills, she should have brutalized Ariel Beck (who has no business competing in MMA) inside of a minute and dominated Lauren Mueller.

Instead, Dobson had a close, competitive fight with Beck until Beck gave up from taking a few hard strikes and Mueller edged her out in a close decision.

Why? Because Dobson fights the exact opposite of how she looks. You would think a tatted up black lesbian would be pretty tough and aggressive, right? Instead, she fights how you would expect a blonde valley girl who cries if she chips a fingernail to.

She will retreat backwards like her life depends upon it in response to the weakest strike. She hates any sort of contact and it will disrupt her rhythm and cause her to get very tentative.

EVEN when she lands, and EVEN when she has her opponent hurt, she won't start getting aggressive and swarming her with more strikes, but will often reset or (I wish I was joking) retreat.

However, Dobson is a very new fighter to MMA and hasn't fought in over a year and a half. She might have fixed this as well as other flaws, although it should be noted that her improvement from her time on TUF to her last fight was depressingly limited.

Too many uncertainties here about both fighters, so I limited my risk to a unit on the plus side.

I think the current odds (Mazo at -130, Dobson at +110) are close to accurate.

 

[TrueAscension]

I think he has around 10 fights at heavyweight. He fought Mir and Roy Nelson and Soa Palelei and Josh Barnett and Jeff Monson.

I thought I read 15 somewhere but ya same same

 

[Dooze]

I thought I read 15 somewhere but ya same same

Tomorrow will be his 16th HW fight in total. He went 13-0 before dropping to LHW due to Cain being champ, then obviously the Stipe and Lewis fights most recently.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Yeah yeah i heard the same thing when he fought morales and people said it wouldnt improve his takedowns and then he got morales down in 30 seconds.....

Morales also got taken down and beat up repeatedly by Brett Fucking Johns. Not a good measuring stick for Berms wrestling capability imo.

 

[Sadistics]

I was initially going to bet very big on Mazo.

However, after watching tape, I decided to put a mere 1u on Mazo at +115. Dobson actually has some legitimate striking skills. She can throw competent straight rights, right hooks, and even a respectable (if painfully telegraphed) right hook, all of which are rare on this level of WMMA. Her jab is worse than Mazo's and a little shorter, but it might have slightly more impact.

In fact, from the standpoint of raw skills, she should have brutalized Ariel Beck (who has no business competing in MMA) inside of a minute and dominated Lauren Mueller.

Instead, Dobson had a close, competitive fight with Beck until Beck gave up from taking a few hard strikes and Mueller edged her out in a close decision.

Why? Because Dobson fights the exact opposite of how she looks. You would think a tatted up black lesbian would be pretty tough and aggressive, right? Instead, she fights how you would expect a blonde valley girl who cries if she chips a fingernail to.

She will retreat backwards like her life depends upon it in response to the weakest strike. She hates any sort of contact and it will disrupt her rhythm and cause her to get very tentative.

EVEN when she lands, and EVEN when she has her opponent hurt, she won't start getting aggressive and swarming her with more strikes, but will often reset or (I wish I was joking) retreat.

However, Dobson is a very new fighter to MMA and hasn't fought in over a year and a half. She might have fixed this as well as other flaws, although it should be noted that her improvement from her time on TUF to her last fight was depressingly limited.

Too many uncertainties here about both fighters, so I limited my risk to a unit on the plus side.

I think the current odds (Mazo at -130, Dobson at +110) are close to accurate.

You're missing the part where Mazo has no hands, as well as a giant speed difference. Mazo landed about two punches on Moroz.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

You're missing the part where Mazo has no hands, as well as a giant speed difference. Mazo landed about two punches on Moroz.

Mazo landed a lot more than 2 punches against Moroz, heh. Nevermind that Moroz was coming forward, pressuring, and disrupting her rhythm constantly with clinches and a takedown. While Dobson is theoretically capable of preparing a similar gameplan, it would be the polar opposite of everything she has shown so far in her fights. She likes to timidly dance at range, throw out her jab, and occasionally throw a right hand.

I don't see this "giant speed difference", either, whether in terms of ring movement, reactions, or handspeed. Dobson is not that fast. She was getting hit a fair amount by freaking Roxy Modafferi in the stand-up on TUF, repeatedly by Ariel "No Business in MMA" Beck, and then badly HURT by Lauren Mueller of all people.

Out of curiosity, at what price did you play Dobson?

 

[Sadistics]

Mazo landed a lot more than 2 punches against Moroz, heh. Nevermind that Moroz was coming forward, pressuring, and disrupting her rhythm constantly with clinches and a takedown. While Dobson is theoretically capable of preparing a similar gameplan, it would be the polar opposite of everything she has shown so far in her fights. She likes to timidly dance at range, throw out her jab, and occasionally throw a right hand.

I don't see this "giant speed difference", either, whether in terms of ring movement, reactions, or handspeed. Dobson is not that fast. She was getting hit a fair amount by freaking Roxy Modafferi in the stand-up on TUF, repeatedly by Ariel "No Business in MMA" Beck, and then badly HURT by Lauren Mueller of all people.

Out of curiosity, at what price did you play Dobson?

I got +135 for a little over 1.5u. We're seeing the fight very differently, can't agree with most of your Mazo analysis, though I do agree with a lot of the faults you point out in Dobson