Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jul 29, 2019.
Almost ninety full minutes of Gianni The Greek breaking down UFC 241 for the hardcore fans:
I got drunk and had a dream of Romero KTFO’ing Borrachinha last night, so now I’m scared. lol
agree on both, TKD.
pettis is a highlight reel type fighter, he looks for opportunities to finish the fight in a spectacular fashion and usually if he doesn't get them - he folds (mentally). it is not conducive to winning decisions.
but on the other hand we have nate who is kill or be killed type of fighter. meaning he is not there to outpoint you, but to finish you. he never folds. but he will be too focused on that one thing, while he is being outsmarted and slowly, but surely loses the fight. but unlike pettis', nate's style caters to the point system because of the volume.
the slightly more adaptable fighter here is pettis IMO. but he is being adaptable just in his area of spectacular finish. meaning he will adjust things so he will increase his chances for KO. but won't do things beyond that. nate is insanely stubborn, but he too adapted a little over the years - he is a tad bit more more active kick defender and a kicker himself. but he still doesn't adapt for every individual opponent, that's why I said he is less adaptable than pettis.
both fighters' approaches to the sport are flawed, but will still work on middle of the road opposition. won't win championship belts fighting like that, but I respect them
Good point. I like his arguments tho
At the end of the day, this fight is honestly not the best for betting. Not much value on either side.
Can someone who watched it please give us cliffs. I can't stand his voice for 90 minutes but I'm very interested in his opinion since I want to fade him.
I already know that he likes Cory Sandhagen.
LOL what a big head helps you absorb damage better??? How was Bigfoot ever knocked out???
Do people really foresee a stoppage in this co-main event bout? Diaz/Pettis Over 2½ now improved to -185 and I doubled up on it.
I am not saying it like it's a scientific fact, Stew. Just my observation is that on average fighters with big heads absorb damage better. Also fighters with thick/short necks.
TBH the odds for a (t)ko are really good (diaz +800, pettis +600) There's definitely value there. But a dec win for either is the most likely path of victory.
Just noticed the odds have shortened diaz (t)ko is now +650 and pettis +500.
I don't have a good feeling either way. Pettis may break something physically or mentally so I'm fading him completely. Nate isn't easy to knock out but neither was Thompson and Pettis may land a well timed counter or flashy kick if he gets time/space.
Not really. I was thinking about this a few days ago but people have convinced me it will be a decision.
The most unexpected finish today is gonna be Cifers putting to sleep that Esquibel bum.
I took Romero by decision at the sports book in Lake tahoe when I was drunk. I doubt it happens. I also took Cormier to win in the fifth round for +2000 odds lol. Gonna go do some more manageable bets today before it starts
I took her round props small tbh. She's got some pop.
Highly unlikely but not impossible considering that Cifers has some wins by stoppage
This guy gets a lot of undeserved shit lol. Listened to the whole thing and his perspective on overall betting and some fight analysis is actually spot on
Jodie gonna chook the muscled up atom weight.
My most valuable lines this card are mostly fgtd plays. Davis-Kang gtd at current price is an obv steal, I like Diaz-Pettis gtd a lot, I like Klose-Giagos goes the distance a lot but it costs a lot more, I like Assuncao-Sandhagen gtd a lot but again, it costs a lot more. More unconventional fgtd I like are Brunson-Heinisch, Yusuff-Benitez and Bermudez-Casey.
ML wise there are a lot of good dogs on this card. Assuncao at +200 is just ridiculous and I recognize Sandhagens current talent and his future potential, thats why I think it's closer to 50-50. I dont think either guy has much of a chance to finish but If there is a finish I actually favor Assuncao to do it.
Davis at +170 is pretty good too but I really dont think he gets submitted, hes also not an easy guy to control. I dont think Davis can finish Kang that often either so I really like Davis DEC +350 and I actually put a small play on that instead of his ML.
I like Brunson at +135, I favor him slightly. The guy doesnt go to DEC often but when he does, he wins, he gets robbed or KOed by rd3 Romero. If someone is going to be on top, however briefly, it's going to be Brunson. Heinisch isnt good enough or active enough standing for me to give him much of a chance at the KO but it's definitely there. If there is a finish, I think its more likely he does it.
I like Diaz +120, I definitely favor him, liked his DEC line a lot too. I like Esquibel, no, I said that one wrong, I mean the line is way off but I'm not going to advocate for Esquibel. I do have a very small play on her though. Bermudez-Kenny is very tough for me to feel accurate on but I really dont think Casey finishes, the finish is essentially all Bermudez but I can see Bermudez winning a DEC as well. I know I favor Bermudez but not sure to what degree, definitely wouldnt feel comfortable putting him over 60% though. I liked Costa at better prices than current but I still favor him so there is still value at +120. I think Cormier at -140 is ok but there isnt a lot of value there, I think he wins 65% but thats not a firm 65, it's probably less, maybe 60.
Hello fellow gamblers, I mean i can see how everyone is going Cormier, but please let me know what i am missing with Pettis-Diaz fight. I favor Pettis to win this in a one sided fashion. I mean Diaz is no Tony Ferguson, why is everyone is riding so high on Diaz? Enlighten me...
"Everyone". Most people on here are on Pettis, I'd say it's about 70/30 Pettis/Diaz.
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