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UFC 241 Cormier vs Miocic II

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jul 29, 2019.

  1. Nate should be the underdog around +130. Dude has been active on Twitter for the last 3 years while Pettis fought Max, Poirier, Tony and Wonderboy. He lost a lot but we still know where Pettis is at. Only thing you can say about Nate is "Well, he looks good on Instagram, so he should come back even better".

    Nate Diaz is still a journeyman. Pettis won a belt and still fights at the highest level no matter what. We know the deal with Nate. Leg kicks will work against him. Only 3 rounds. Nate relies a lot on his chin and that’s always a bad strategy especially when you’re getting older. I don’t believe that Nate has the style to break Pettis in 3 rounds. No insane pressure like Tony, no wrestling and no KO power. This will be a boxer vs a kickboxer match.

    I can visualise a bleeding Nate act like he was robbed when the scorecards get announced lol.
     
  2. ApplesVild Banned Banned

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    Pettis in his last few fights has done a lot of standing and waiting and then circling off, during which nothing is thrown. He seems to look for particular shots and if he's interrupted before he finds what he's looking for then he circles, resets and then looks again.

    He has looked great in scrambles and on the mat though
     
  3. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    He said he caps pettis at -300 which I think is absolutely insane
     
  4. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Now I've seen Diaz in good shape I'd cap it closer. There's a huge difference between the inshape Diaz that fought Michael Johnson and the Diaz that missed weight vs RDA or the Diaz that was too lazy to cut to 155 and just said screw it I'll get ragdolled at 170 instead.
     
  5. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    Diaz did come in off a vacation and beat mcgregor on short notice
     
  6. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    True, but that was largely down to Diaz being a good punch bag with cardio. He'd also fought the Johnson fight 2 months prior and didn't have to cut much to make weight with the move to 170.
     
  7. I think all 3 dogs in the final 3 fights of this card are live(counting Nate as one, despite it being a pick'em now).

    Already discussed Nate/Pettis.

    Romero pre Bobby Knuckles and pre red panty night lawsuit win would smoke Romero.

    But his eye is STILL fucked from that fight, and he's that much older now. Not to mention he won 28 million dollars. He could show up to this fight for the purse, lose, retire and ride off into the sunset.

    I actually bet on DC during the first Stipe fight, it was my biggest MMA win up to that point.

    But I got DC @ +240. Stipe has been obsessed with running it back with DC, so you've got to imagine he's been training hard and has a dartboard with DC's face on it in his gameroom.

    Stipe @ +odds is a steal imo.
     
  8. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    I like DC a lot in this match, did the first time too. Skillwise I think he's just a lot better than Stipe and athletically too. Just him being the much better wrestler, more durable with considerably better cardio could be enough to win this fight as a couple of rounds of intense wrestling would probably leave Stipe gasping for air. Everyone seemed to miss how hard he gassed vs Ngannou where he was struggling to do much of significance after the 3rd.

    It's not like Stipe was as dominant as made out as champ, JDS and Reem had him in trouble early and Cormier KOing him was no fluke with how bad Stipes defence was in the clinch. He just has a lot more holes and is a lot less durable than even a 40 year old Cormier.
     
  9. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    Nate Diaz has 5" reach advantage and much better output than Pettis. He is going to win the striking if Pettis doesn't land a monster kick or trick punch like he did vs WB.

    But the question I have is...can Pettis grapplefuck Diaz? I know they are both bad wrestlers, but Nate Diaz is worse. The fact that he has been inactive and is aging, probably not expecting a strong grappling attack likely makes this the best path to victory for Pettis
     
  10. Larthus Orange Belt

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    Drakkar Klose is working with the same neuro company Cejudo trained with. I cap him at -1000 because of this reason.
     
  11. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

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    He was Conors punching bag until Mcgregor gassed. More luck than skill in this win
     
  12. Masterbettor White Belt

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    I put him around -180
     
  13. NorthernLights Blue Belt

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  14. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    How is it insane? Slow-starter who's been out for years and has never been able to deal with a functional kicker against elite kicker. Conor being an idiot and playing into Nate's win conditions really seems to have made people think Nate's a lot better than he actually is. Nate's the best canvas that Pettis has had to work with since Chiesa. Nate's just got the optics advantage of having not fought in a while, and getting particularly pressure sensitive opponents in Johnson & Conor to cover for his holes.

    Diaz would be the second worst, maybe even the worst, loss of Pettis' UFC career. There's a good chance that Pettis stops him cold inside 5 minutes.
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2019
  15. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    The guy who has quit in fights multiple times is going to beat Nate diaz 75% of the time? With kicks? Lol

    And now you’ve doubled down and said there’s a good chance he stops him in the first round.
     
  16. Doc R Blue Belt

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    Rematches usually go the same aside of a few exceptional fighters. (I love when the previous winner is an underdog, ragin al v Lee, porrier v max, arlovski v Rothwell)

    Stipe got KOed by Struve via eye pokes. Cormiers didn’t stem directly from the pokes but he threw about 15 in R1. Stipe maybe sees that shot from the clinch if his eyes weren’t completely fucked.

    I think DC wins again but I’m interested to see if he throws jab to finger flick pokes now that he’s already KOed stipe. Fight is a pass for me when you add in angry stipe, dc back surgery, eye pokes.

    Costa got Rocked by Hall. So I see Romero getting him with a big shot striking. Different levels. Although Romero’s potential cryptonite is other obvious PED users(Tim Kennedy stoolgate).

    Like Diaz by ko.
     
  17. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    Diaz was able to deal with Cerrone's kicks

    And Pettis has looked pretty bad lately. He is far from his showtime days. Just bc he has been losing to stud competition doesn't mean it's unlikely he loses when he takes a small step down. Wonderboy picked him apart for 2 rounds while he did nothing. If Pettis doesn't find a grappling advantage, the Diaz fight could possibly look the same.

    Conor is an elite striker who struggled to hang with Nate at 170 because Nate is a great striker with monster reach, chin, and cardio. If Nate can hang with Conor striking, he can definitely beat low output Pettis.
     
  18. Now imagine Science Paulo Costa... that alone is a reason why I’m not betting this fight lol.
     
  19. Cowboy is a different kicker and that was years ago when Cowboy was way worse whe he got pressured. He fixed some of his weaknesses as we saw recently. Despite that he is standing fully straight throwing different kicks. Pettis is more fluent with his kicks and movement.
     
  20. BigNick100 Green Belt

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    Ian at -175 and Sand at -160, let the good times roll!
     

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