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UFC 241 Cormier vs Miocic II

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jul 29, 2019.

  1. Yotsuya Brown Belt

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    He usually fights at outer range to use his reach and to avoid takedowns. He trades punishment for volume and outlasts his opponents and touts them into making mistakes. That's pretty smart for his properties. I'm not sure he's faced a kicking range threat like Pettis who has no td threat before, so I have no idea how he'd deal with an opponent like that.

    Also, I'd imagine Diaz might regard this as a warm-up fight for a ppv headliner money fight, so he has incentive to fight smart. He called Pettis out, so maybe he has a plan to beat him.
     
  2. ApplesVild Banned Banned

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    The reality is it's complete speculation on Diaz. We could get the exact same Diaz that left, wide open for the leg kicks, only wants to box, starts fairly slow and builds as the fight goes on and his opponent slows... We could get a worse version who's rusty, older and hasn't advanced his game in any way... Or he's been working his balls off for the past few years, comes in injury free, muscle added to be a big welter weight and new tools added to his game.

    No one knows and realisticly this is a stay away fight as there are too many unknowns.
     
  3. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    I mean I'd say that the most likely scenario is somewhere between options 1 & 2. If he's randomly completely overhauled his game 15 years into his career whilst training with the same camp/people who also are still showing the same vulnerabilities themselves, I think that'd just be a 'these things happen in MMA' bad beat. Diaz was also pretty happy getting booked to fight Poirier at LW earlier this year, so I don't think he's yoked up to massive WW scale.

    Pettis isn't completely absent a TD threat. Managed to lay n pray Stephens years ago in a strange fight. Honestly wouldn't shock me if just sitting on Diaz wasn't a viable tactic for him here. I don't think there's a plan, so much as people tend to overrate Pettis' shotness and misinterpret the sort of pressure that he's vulnerable to.
     
  4. ApplesVild Banned Banned

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    If he came in a built welter weight with his usual pressure boxing high out put game I think he would give Pettis trouble.

    Pettis will come in with a leg kick heavy game, I'm sure if that, but in several years off that should be a small adjustment for Nate to make, checking more kicks. Not saying he will have made the adjustment but it's not impossible, and he wouldn't have to check many to get Pettis questioning throwing any more.

    Most likely we get the same Diaz and he either lands the shots and wears Pettis down or he gets beat up with kicks from range and complains about how Pettis was running.
     
  5. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Having difficulty checking kicks is 100% built into Diaz' game. He's successful since he's a heavy front-foot pressure boxer, he cannot check kicks since he's a heavy front-foot pressure boxer. He can't adjust for one without killing his volume or aggression advantages.
     
  6. Yotsuya Brown Belt

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    I'm going by very distant memory here, but wasn't Nick Diaz way more aggressive with his high volume forward pressure with more clinch work and Nate was the rangy anti-td adjustment of that style. So basically it's not that far fetched adjustment in that camp to go back to Nick's style so to speak. This thought has been lingering in my mind since the beginning, but I don't have time to look into it.

    This could very well be true.
     
  7. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    Cormier by decision is +410 love that
     
  8. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    Ill disagree with him being smart,

    Did dumb shit vs cezar/ shoeface but his strength/ athleticism bailed him out
     
  9. ApplesVild Banned Banned

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    There's definitely a big money fight potential for Diaz if he wins. The Conor fight, its unlikely, but the first two where at WW. No doubt he calls out Conor for the rubber match if he wins, and that is still a Madison Square Garden top of the bill fight if they make it.

    Even the Masvidal fight, that's a big one too, two 'street' guys going at it in the build up.

    Either fight is probably the biggest seller of the year with the most hype
     
  10. clemente Blue Belt

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    Yoel Costa GTD
     
  11. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    Is there anything stopping Romero from wrestle fucking Costa?
     
  12. trident Water Belt

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    Romero doesnt like to work that hard so it prob wont happen. Costa is going to have a hard time hitting him and will leave himself open to one of Yoels attacks.
     
  13. northsofia Blue Belt

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    Maybe tha fact that he is goin go gas hard?
     
  14. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    [​IMG]
     
  15. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    His gas tank allows for 2 hard minutes of activity per 15 minutes lol
     
  16. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Even when he uses it his wrestling isn't that effective in MMA, he was a freestyle wrestler which doesn't translate as well as others. Costa hasn't shown terrible TDD and is a BJJ black belt so won't just be easy for Yoel to outgrapple him for 15 minutes. Not to mention 15 minutes of wrestling would wreck Yoels gas tank.
     
  17. theTKDguy Silver Belt

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    {<redford}
    i don't get how some are so confident about nate. he always comes with the same straight forward gameplan and doesn´t really adapt when things aren't going his way. thing is pettis needs to fight a perfect fight from the outside throwing tons of kicks mostly (which i think he'll try to do, he is a more intelligent fighter than nate) but i feel he could get dragged to a brawl at some point (cause pettis is now this "just bleed" guy all of a sudden lol) and nate is clearly the more effective boxer and most importantly, more durable guy. pettis breaks and this isn't good against a punching bag like nate. i do expect pettis to be the much more athletic guy, faster and more explosive for the first half of the fight, nate is stiff af and slow. either way, i'm liking FGTD more and more.

    pettis should watch nate vs thomson. he has all the tools to repeat that. good luck trying to ko nate again tho.

    agreed. yoel definitely ain't wrestling his way to a dec, he'll fight a slow paced striking fight and pick his shots as always.
     
  18. hawk77 Orange Belt

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    I dont think anyone is finding value in Diaz at close to evens. You just dont make money betting on a guy with that layoff and amount of question marks at close to coin flip odds. There is a version of him that could give pettis problems but a 3 year layoff is too much to overlook. Pettis has been fighting the best and has improved his skill set more in the last 3 years. I cap pettis closer to -175 and only because of my respect for nate i dont go into the 66% range. At best its a pass or small play on pettis. I am in for 5u which is pretty much maxed for me. I got -106 for 2.5 and -125 for 2.5. Id wait for the live bet on diaz if you want value on him or are on pettis and change your mind. Aside from an injury to petti's anke or fist from hitting diaz in the skull so frequently i think pettis takes this 29-8 or 30-27 with a not so sneaky chance of finish via kick.
     
  19. hawk77 Orange Belt

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    Also on stipe large. another big play. I personally cap stipe as a -120 favorite so getting him at +125 or +130 makes this great EV.
     
  20. edole Brown Belt

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    Where are we at on the Kenney/Bermudez fight?

    I'm of the belief that Bermudez has been beating total jobbers, whereas Kenney beat Ray Borg on 6 days notice in his debut.
     

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