UFC 242 Khabib vs Poirier

Red_2 said:
There's bound to be some upsets here, and if it is I'm going with Jojo & Silva.

Have a few u on Blaydes, Islam & Muhammed so far. Just haven't picked my dog for betting yet.
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I took Blaydes, Machachev and Muhammad as well. You still could have got Blaydes and Machachev less than the open up until a lil while ago. I'm looking at a few other ML plays but waiting to see where the line moves.

Gugabe said:
CDF and Shamil lines are nuts. They could legit win at >50% clip
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I can see why you would like Ferreira, he is a special fighter. I see Ferreira's main path to victory being a decision but I dont think he will be able to realize that equity. I didnt bet Taisomov yet because I'm counting on people thinking CDF at +230 has to be value, I also want to see props but may go ML anyway if I really like the price.

Shamil I dont get. Dont see a finish from him at all but I guess he can somehow thread a needle to a DEC. Maybe?
 
RuthlessRich said:
Someone talk me out of betting Sarah cheesecake Moras lol...
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No!

Wouldn't be too surprised to see that line become the coin flip that the fight is. Moras looked borderline ok against Macy for a few minutes. That's gotta count for something. This other chick...bunch of time away. Could come in looking tiers better. Could be complete meh. 2 of the 3 girls she's fought who had winning records finished her. The third girl, and her most recent fight, she beat via Maj Dec. Sarah is a loser but at least she's losing to UFC caliber fighters.
 
Andrea Lee is probably going to dominate and get a one sided decision over Calderwood. The difference in defence is huge, Calderwoods main offence is kicks which Lee always counters with punches and no way is Jojo going to outgrapple her to a decision when De La Rosa and Evans-Smith failed hard at that.
 
Yes hello i taped every fight and heres muh thots

I favor Paul Felder at +140 or so here, if he limits his bullshit spin techniques he likely out-lands Barboza here and aggresses/ octagon controls his way to a decision.

Islam should win this but somehow i dont wanna bet this line, islams best win is a wrestlehumping match vs Arman and im not sure i wanna bet him vs a legit blackbelt, id be more comfortable if id seen Islam be able to apply a pressure stand up game

CDF is worth a value stab

Belal muhammed i hit , hes a smart fighter whose a tier above his opponent imo

Taleb is the correct side but a KO loss for him is definitely in play here

Andrea Lee is muh biggest play here, she will almost certainly bully her way into a 30-27 UD till she almost gets arm barred for zero fucking necessary reason with a minute left
Calderwood belongs at 115, and her only hype comes from Beating Lipski ( LOL)

Finally big bird vs Liana Jojua

I taped jojua and am very impressed by her facial structure, Ossetian facial features are a very nice sight when living amongst 400 Pound American megafauna that would otherwise be classified as “women”
I tried 2 watch her fights but accepted the reality that i was just watching dem thighs 4 roughly 20 minutes

Conclusion: im still in low level wmma ptsd shock from betting +10U on cifers , fuck this fight
 
Any ideas for a decent accumulator bet on this card?
 
Austisthunder said:
Yes hello i taped every fight and heres muh thots

I favor Paul Felder at +140 or so here, if he limits his bullshit spin techniques he likely out-lands Barboza here and aggresses/ octagon controls his way to a decision.

Islam should win this but somehow i dont wanna bet this line, islams best win is a wrestlehumping match vs Arman and im not sure i wanna bet him vs a legit blackbelt, id be more comfortable if id seen Islam be able to apply a pressure stand up game

CDF is worth a value stab

Belal muhammed i hit , hes a smart fighter whose a tier above his opponent imo

Taleb is the correct side but a KO loss for him is definitely in play here

Andrea Lee is muh biggest play here, she will almost certainly bully her way into a 30-27 UD till she almost gets arm barred for zero fucking necessary reason with a minute left
Calderwood belongs at 115, and her only hype comes from Beating Lipski ( LOL)

Finally big bird vs Liana Jojua

I taped jojua and am very impressed by her facial structure, Ossetian facial features are a very nice sight when living amongst 400 Pound American megafauna that would otherwise be classified as “women”
I tried 2 watch her fights but accepted the reality that i was just watching dem thighs 4 roughly 20 minutes

Conclusion: im still in low level wmma ptsd shock from betting +10U on cifers , fuck this fight
Click to expand...
Wmma ptsd is real breh

#endthestigma
#raiseawareness
#mentalillness
 
Austisthunder said:
Yes hello i taped every fight and heres muh thots

I favor Paul Felder at +140 or so here, if he limits his bullshit spin techniques he likely out-lands Barboza here and aggresses/ octagon controls his way to a decision.

Islam should win this but somehow i dont wanna bet this line, islams best win is a wrestlehumping match vs Arman and im not sure i wanna bet him vs a legit blackbelt, id be more comfortable if id seen Islam be able to apply a pressure stand up game

CDF is worth a value stab

Belal muhammed i hit , hes a smart fighter whose a tier above his opponent imo

Taleb is the correct side but a KO loss for him is definitely in play here

Andrea Lee is muh biggest play here, she will almost certainly bully her way into a 30-27 UD till she almost gets arm barred for zero fucking necessary reason with a minute left
Calderwood belongs at 115, and her only hype comes from Beating Lipski ( LOL)

Finally big bird vs Liana Jojua

I taped jojua and am very impressed by her facial structure, Ossetian facial features are a very nice sight when living amongst 400 Pound American megafauna that would otherwise be classified as “women”
I tried 2 watch her fights but accepted the reality that i was just watching dem thighs 4 roughly 20 minutes

Conclusion: im still in low level wmma ptsd shock from betting +10U on cifers , fuck this fight
Click to expand...
Am I completely insane to expect jojo to get a meme-level sub here? I also lean Taleb and Muhammed here. Not much value. I want to see Taleb hit underdog odds to be worth a play.
 
never forget how shamil brought shame upon dagestan when timothy johnson easily finished him on the ground
 
Red_2 said:
Am I completely insane to expect jojo to get a meme-level sub here?
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Calderwood is a fairly mediocre grappler with just the one sub win over Faria while Lee just got her brown belt off Relson Gracie and shutdown 2 better wrestlers in Evans-Smith and De La Rosa.

But it's WMMA so its always a reasonable possibility.
 
Red_2 said:
Am I completely insane to expect jojo to get a meme-level sub here? I also lean Taleb and Muhammed here. Not much value. I want to see Taleb hit underdog odds to be worth a play.
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Think Lee takes it fairly simply. I have her at -165 though and can understand people starting to consider Calderwood at some point.

He opened +150 and I got him just before he flipped over at +105. Suspect Taleb as a dog is over for good.

Sato is KO or bust. He might but I just don't see it. Belal will be way too much for him. Some of the best fight IQ out there.
 
Felder at dog odds has value imo. The first fight was pretty competitive, but Felder was inexperienced and fought the entire time at kickboxing range. He willingly ate a lot of body kicks and spent too much time headhunting the killshot. He's grown.

I think he'll come in with a much better gameplan. He'll force Barboza to fight in the clinch a lot, make it an uglier fight. He has the edge in durability and he's grown a ton in realizing that he's not going to finish everyone via spinning backfist and needs to throw combos and volume to win rounds.

I actually favor Felder a bit and any + odds on him is a great bet imo.
 
Still mostly fading wmma but after watching some more tape I'd be shocked if Lee doesn't win. Better striking stiff jab, movement, solid cardio. I was worried after my last bet on her when she went to the ground a few too many times but she worked De La Rosa anybody see her face before the cameras cut away? Calderwoods striking looks.. bad and her defense even worse. If Lee keeps it standing I don't see how she loses. Even still she has a solid ground game and knows how to work/get up from the bottom.
 
Hate I missed the opener but I think Lee still has alot of value. Going small although I'm starting to like this better than my Khabib play. KGB earns a straight bet and a spot in my parlay.
 
Sono07 said:
Still mostly fading wmma but after watching some more tape I'd be shocked if Lee doesn't win. Better striking stiff jab, movement, solid cardio. I was worried after my last bet on her when she went to the ground a few too many times but she worked De La Rosa anybody see her face before the cameras cut away? Calderwoods striking looks.. bad and her defense even worse. If Lee keeps it standing I don't see how she loses. Even still she has a solid ground game and knows how to work/get up from the bottom.
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Lay the chalk bro.

abGyZ2Wg_400x400.jpg
 
Just placed 5€ on Khabib at -350 like some bitch-ass noob but as they say, alhamdulillah.
 
Austisthunder said:
Yes hello i taped every fight and heres muh thots

I favor Paul Felder at +140 or so here, if he limits his bullshit spin techniques he likely out-lands Barboza here and aggresses/ octagon controls his way to a decision.

Islam should win this but somehow i dont wanna bet this line, islams best win is a wrestlehumping match vs Arman and im not sure i wanna bet him vs a legit blackbelt, id be more comfortable if id seen Islam be able to apply a pressure stand up game

CDF is worth a value stab

Belal muhammed i hit , hes a smart fighter whose a tier above his opponent imo

Taleb is the correct side but a KO loss for him is definitely in play here

Andrea Lee is muh biggest play here, she will almost certainly bully her way into a 30-27 UD till she almost gets arm barred for zero fucking necessary reason with a minute left
Calderwood belongs at 115, and her only hype comes from Beating Lipski ( LOL)

Finally big bird vs Liana Jojua

I taped jojua and am very impressed by her facial structure, Ossetian facial features are a very nice sight when living amongst 400 Pound American megafauna that would otherwise be classified as “women”
I tried 2 watch her fights but accepted the reality that i was just watching dem thighs 4 roughly 20 minutes

Conclusion: im still in low level wmma ptsd shock from betting +10U on cifers , fuck this fight
Click to expand...
I put some money on Ramos as a +220 underdog. I'm happy.
 
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