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UFC 245 Usman vs Covington
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check ur pm
I think Hooper takes it, either sub or win by close dec taking rounds 2 and 3
D
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Does 5d offer live betting for the main card?
Last weekend they didn't
Last weekend they didn't
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Seems ~5u on Teymur was a bad bet.
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So has Apples been banned? I actually enjoyed his contribution to these betting threads. Seems a bit excessive to ban him for being annoying but as Holloway would say 'it is what it is'. Anyway here a list of bets that interest me:
Usman decision Colby 11/10
This fight is all but guaranteed to go to the decision. In their last 10 combined fights, 9 of those have. The real question is whether Usman is going to constantly be able to take Colby down and keep him there, because if not it's going to be a long night for him. I just can't get the RDA fight out of my head, where Colby was pushed against the cage and taken down multiple times which is something Usman's does extremely well. The betting odds don't really excite me all that much though.
Holloway rd4, rd5 or decision Volkanovski 11/10 (decision 7/4)
Even though I bet on a Holloway decision (7/4), if you are able to get this option it's probably the safer bet. The Aldo fight leads me to believe that Volk can win a decision by wall stalling and wisely choosing his takedown attempts. Still though, Volk has only been past round 3 once in his career and never to round 5, and with the pressure Holloway is going to bring and the huge reach advantage, it's likely that he dominates the championship rounds to either stop him or win a close decision.
Nunes decision GDR 4/1
Sorry I know there are a lot of decision predictions, especially for championship fights but I just really like these odds. In their first fight, Nunes was able to take down GDR in the first round to win but since then Nunes has fallen in love with her striking. GDR, on the other hand, has improved her TDD and has defended 22 out of 22 takedowns since their fight which leads me to believe even if Nunes does try taking her down it won't be so easy this time. However Nunes beat (debatably) Shevchenko in a pure stand-up battle while GDR barely beat Holm, so I still predict her to be able to also muscle the more technical GDR to a close points victory.
Moraes KO Aldo 15/8
After many years of there being talks of Aldo moving up a division, he has made the debatable decision to move down. At his age, this could be a bad decision. Moraes is probably the hardest hitter in the division and much like when Pettis tried to move down against Hollway I feel like there is a good chance its only a matter of time before his body doesn't react the way he wants and Moraes is able to land.
Aldo decision Moraes 9/2
Even though I'm leaning towards Aldo getting KO'd these odds are tempting for a punt, after Aldo looked pretty good at weigh in. If Aldo is able to perform to his abilities after the huge weight cut I predict a close decision win, Moraes doesn't have the boxing pressure that has troubled Aldo in recent years and is prone to gas himself.
Yan decision Faber 15/8
Fabers best days are long gone, he is still able to beat opposition to a certain level but I believe Yan is a step beyond that level. Most tend to be predicting a Yan KO but he hasn't really shown me the urgency to finish if he is comfortably winning. Plus Faber is hard to KO due to his double chin.
Perry > Geoff 9/4 (Decision 17/2)
I've bet on Perry against Olivera and Luque, not necessarily because I thought he was going to win but because they were both close fights with better than 2/1 odds. This is another fight that I just can't pass on these odds. I expect Perry to make it a dog fight and close the skill gap with some pure 'just bleed' violence. Get ready for some black on black crime.
Honestly, there is nothing that really excites me all that much as I could see all my predictions failing... a Perry decision at 17/2 is the bet that excites me the most which I've put £200 on. I also put small bets on both a Nunes and Holloway decisions. Will update on bets but I don't really want to spend too much more on this event as I'm really just betting for the sake of it at this point.
Usman decision Colby 11/10
This fight is all but guaranteed to go to the decision. In their last 10 combined fights, 9 of those have. The real question is whether Usman is going to constantly be able to take Colby down and keep him there, because if not it's going to be a long night for him. I just can't get the RDA fight out of my head, where Colby was pushed against the cage and taken down multiple times which is something Usman's does extremely well. The betting odds don't really excite me all that much though.
Holloway rd4, rd5 or decision Volkanovski 11/10 (decision 7/4)
Even though I bet on a Holloway decision (7/4), if you are able to get this option it's probably the safer bet. The Aldo fight leads me to believe that Volk can win a decision by wall stalling and wisely choosing his takedown attempts. Still though, Volk has only been past round 3 once in his career and never to round 5, and with the pressure Holloway is going to bring and the huge reach advantage, it's likely that he dominates the championship rounds to either stop him or win a close decision.
Nunes decision GDR 4/1
Sorry I know there are a lot of decision predictions, especially for championship fights but I just really like these odds. In their first fight, Nunes was able to take down GDR in the first round to win but since then Nunes has fallen in love with her striking. GDR, on the other hand, has improved her TDD and has defended 22 out of 22 takedowns since their fight which leads me to believe even if Nunes does try taking her down it won't be so easy this time. However Nunes beat (debatably) Shevchenko in a pure stand-up battle while GDR barely beat Holm, so I still predict her to be able to also muscle the more technical GDR to a close points victory.
Moraes KO Aldo 15/8
After many years of there being talks of Aldo moving up a division, he has made the debatable decision to move down. At his age, this could be a bad decision. Moraes is probably the hardest hitter in the division and much like when Pettis tried to move down against Hollway I feel like there is a good chance its only a matter of time before his body doesn't react the way he wants and Moraes is able to land.
Aldo decision Moraes 9/2
Even though I'm leaning towards Aldo getting KO'd these odds are tempting for a punt, after Aldo looked pretty good at weigh in. If Aldo is able to perform to his abilities after the huge weight cut I predict a close decision win, Moraes doesn't have the boxing pressure that has troubled Aldo in recent years and is prone to gas himself.
Yan decision Faber 15/8
Fabers best days are long gone, he is still able to beat opposition to a certain level but I believe Yan is a step beyond that level. Most tend to be predicting a Yan KO but he hasn't really shown me the urgency to finish if he is comfortably winning. Plus Faber is hard to KO due to his double chin.
Perry > Geoff 9/4 (Decision 17/2)
I've bet on Perry against Olivera and Luque, not necessarily because I thought he was going to win but because they were both close fights with better than 2/1 odds. This is another fight that I just can't pass on these odds. I expect Perry to make it a dog fight and close the skill gap with some pure 'just bleed' violence. Get ready for some black on black crime.
Honestly, there is nothing that really excites me all that much as I could see all my predictions failing... a Perry decision at 17/2 is the bet that excites me the most which I've put £200 on. I also put small bets on both a Nunes and Holloway decisions. Will update on bets but I don't really want to spend too much more on this event as I'm really just betting for the sake of it at this point.
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Fuck
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I know the rule is to tail at your own peril, but I want to apologize to anyone I influenced to play Daniel Teymur. Sorry.
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He's not banned, just a weak coward troll who's hiding under the bridge after being dealt double yellow card. Almost everyone else continues to post while having yellow cards meanwhile.
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We all make mistakes all good.
piglord
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you were clear that fight iq was the risk and it turned out to be the case. shit happens.
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All g.
- 1u only @2.0 was worth it and he went full retard. PPV X-factor fucking everybody up.
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I had a very difficult work week which didn't allow me to record a podcast or post thoughts most places. Wish my boss didn't have his baby this week, I would have been able to save some people from the Teymur circle jerk. No clue how people got that excited about betting him. Pay more attention on who you are tailing.
Wow thanks for that captain hindsight.
