Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Dec 15, 2019.
Quick look and early feelings for this one -
Maurice Green as an underdog to Oleinik seems off, one straight shot could get the job done.
CDF with his pressure game should have the advantage, Pettis has been in a decline for a while now but he is still Anthony Pettis. Value will go if the line gets any wider.
I'm on Nasrat until he shows me I've over rated him, even though I really like Dober's last performance it was against Polo who us totally shot.
I see value in Pennington if she actually shows up to fight, if she's lazy or half hearted Holly will pick her off in her usual style. If Rocky is lean and fit on the scales I will take her.
Chase Skelly as decent size dog is interesting in a fight that is going to be grappling heavy, especially as Dawson is fairly untested. Not to discredit him, what I have seen he is very good.
The line on Roxanne is really wide already and I do favour Barber to win but if it continues to grow I wouldn't fault anyone for taking a punt on her.
Main event I take Conor to win but not to bet at the current odds, I may add him to some parleys.
Other than the main event this card is fairly low in terms of name value, I expected a big co-main. The fights are excellent, but to casuals a lot of them wont mean anything. A whole month to pick at this one, lines will probably jump around all over the place.
CDF is going to kill Pettis as badly as the line was killed.
Cerrone can win this, Conor had problems with overrated Diaz in 170lbs. Cerrone can kick and Has dangerous bjj. Despite age I give him cardio advantage
Conor dropped Diaz many times, would those same shots ko cerrone? If yes bet McGregor.
That poster is horrific
One thing that amps up fight fans before a really big fight, is Holly Holm. Genius stuff by the UFC here. No need to put young up and comers on before Conor to get some eyeballs on them, put the most boring fighter on the roster on the main card. This is why they're the best
I really thought CDF would have opened up with a better line due to Pettis' name value. Is this a case of people (here, twitter etc) discussing things before odds drop giving line makers an advantage? Possibly
Conor sparks Cowboy out within 1.5 rounds. It won't be close IMO
My thinking is that it - CDF-Pettis - opened on BOL where limits are much higher than 5Dimes ($250 vs $50). And @Jordan3399 pointed out that the crowd over at BOL is probably, generally 'sharper' than 5D which I'd agree with too. Combination of those two, plus the fact that Diaz made Pettis quit and then got murdered himself gave the oddsmaker's a really easy wiki-cap.
What does Raquel have for Holly?
Probably quite a bit if she turns up like she did last fight. She took Holm to a split 4 years ago and if she fights to her potential probably wins a clear enough dec over Holm who has some really bad and exploitable fight IQ.
I like Yusuf at 1.7 and CDF even at 1.5
I really like JJ at even money.
i think you are vastly overestimating fili, whenever Fili has faced a good striker he got exposed (except vs Sheymon moraes, but moraes got a whole lot of other issues) Fili has definitely made leaps but when he cant get his wrestling going he becomes very predictable. I really don't see Fili outjabbing Yusuf....
Who did he get exposed by since Kattar beat him? MJ was a split decision.
Fade the old and/or washed up fighters... Take Conor, CDF, Rocky, Dawson and Green.
Pennington isnt washed?
She just beat Aldana and her only recent loses are to GDR and Nunes. Holly has beat Bethe and Megan Anderson in the past 3/4 years and lost to everyone else.
She can win, but it's easily as 50/50 fight. 50/50 fight it only makes sense to take the dog.
The poster sucks, but this promo video is fire!
Little doubt that someone is going to sleep, and that someone is most likely Cowboy. I would love to see some vintage Conor, because he is still the King. No fighter brings the goosebumps like this guy.
Welterweight : Conor McGregor vs Donald Cerrone
We know Connor has a good chin. We also know Cerrone's aint what it used to be. Cerrone is far better on the ground, and has great reactive takedowns. IMO if Cerrone wants to win he has to grapple, and sub Conor...otherwise Cowboy is taking a dirt nap.
Women's Bantamweight : Holly Holm vs. Raquel Pennington
If Holly Holm stays true to past performances she is going to come in top shape, and is the bigger, stronger fighter, Will probably bet this one close to the event if I do because HH has been on a bit of a skid, but her opponents are all top shelf competition. Want evidence of improved training.
Rocky lost to HH before but she has since improved her game by quite a bit. She still has trouble hitting with her power shots. Going to avoid because I still think HH is better and is against the ropes career wise. Too big of a skid to risk my $$$ on it though.
Featherweight : Andre Fili vs. Sodiq Yusuff
Fili has a great jab, good distance control, great defense and reflexes. Fast, straight, accurate striking with medium power. Doesn't check leg kicks in favor of striking, and TDD preparedness. Quick to counter strike so it is only a minor concern. Excellent left high kicks. Good chin, hasn't been KOed in 4 years, pretty active.
If you start from the MJ fight, and run through to the Moraes fight he shows huge improvements.
Yousuff has huge power, devastating leg kicks and good striking defense, and reflexes. A bit sloppy on his striking though. Tends to wade in with his shots being open to a quick counter.
Sodiq's kicking will set the range, but Fili is a bit faster, has a better jab, and striking. But he doesn't really check leg kicks. IMO Fili is going to catch Sodiq often with his crisp striking. Risky bet : Edge split. Fili by KO or Sodiq via leg kicks.
Benitez dropped Sodiq with a medium power left hook. Fili has good quick boxing, 2 inch height, and a 4 inch reach advantage. If Fili's improvements continue I can see him getting another KO. Will probably bet Fili if anything. Sodiq getting rocked in his last 2 fights from fairly light punches has me worried.
Women's Flyweight : Roxanne Modafferi vs. Maycee Barber
Maycee is a lot more physical, a lot better at striking, and has plenty of TDD to keep it standing. I love Modafferi to death but this is a no brainer.
(Update: I think the fights going to be a lot closer than the odds suggest. But still no bet ATM. Perhaps more info will come out that point to the odds being wildly out of whack)
Lightweight : Nasrat Haqparast vs. Drew Dober
Nasrat Haqparast is a careful fighter that reads his opponent in the 1st round before getting to business. Great striking defense, and throws heavy fast punches. He is not going to win on points, but he throws fight ending power in all his shots. Not a combination striker but varies his punches enough to catch his opponents off guard. Occasionally throws combos that are well put together. Very good striking.
Drew Dober: Susceptible to submissions. mediocre striking defense, and head movement. I think he's taking a dirt nap, and will bet on it.
Featherweight : Grant Dawson vs. Chas Skelly
Grant Dawson : Grinding wrestler with great submissions. Ok striking. Covers distance very well. Good take downs. Good cardio.
Chas Skelly: Good striking defense, and take downs. He's a strangler with BJJ. Very good submissions.
Both want the fight on the ground but I think grant simply has a better submission game. Both have similar frames but Chas Skelly simply hasn't been very active lately. I'd have to give Grant the edge. No bet because it's going to be a tangle fest dogfight on the ground.
Heavyweight : Aleksei Oleinik vs. Maurice Greene
Aleksei Oleinik very poor striking, and take downs. Devastating submission game. The mat is lava or you are getting strangled.
Maurice Greene: Poor striking defense, bad toolbox for keeping the fight at range. I think Alexei will be able to close the distance and grab him.
No bet because Aleksei is simply too terrible on the feet, and I think Maurice gets murdered on the ground.
Lightweight : Anthony Pettis vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira
Anthony Pettis : Tight crisp boxing, excellent fast kicks, keeps hands up, good at checking leg kicks. Not as reckless as he used to be. Good TDD, and ground game. Showed great fight IQ, and patience vs Wonderboy. Gassed vs Diaz but just about everyone gasses vs Diaz.
Carlos Diego Ferreira: Slow striking. Kyle Nelson exposed his chin pretty well in the 1st round. I think Pettis is going to kill him on the feet. There is levels to this shit and I don't think Carlos is up there with Pettis.
Flyweight : Tim Elliott vs. Askar Askarov
Askarov has elite level wrestling and decent subs. Good chin. Moreno cracked him quite a few times and it held up. Tenacious with grappling. Terrible striking, and striking defense.Askarov took Brandon Moreno to Dec on short notice in his last fight.
Tim Elliot: Good wrestling, scrambles, and subs. Unfortunately he relies on his fast pace rather than technique. Little bit better striking than Askarov but not enough to hurt him. I think Askarov advantage in grappling, and subs.
I'd have to bet Askarov since this is a full fight camp for him, and his performance against Moreno was very good for short notice. He is better at grappling and should end up in advantageous positions over Elliot who tends to be sloppy.
Mabye bet this one late and wait to see if anything else on Tim Elliot comes out. If he gets more disciplined with his grappling and quits with the Ben Askren style wrestling then he could be very good...but he's 32 and you know what they say about old dogs.
Bantamweight : Brian Kelleher vs. Ode Osbourne
Brian Kelleher: Great kicks, movement, and distance control. Chin may be cracked just a bit. KO'd by Linneker, and a short elbow behind the ear put him on his ass for Jackson to finish him via D'arce..but Linneker has crazy power, and everyone goes down with an elbow behind the ear. Showed good careful striking against Linneker, good striking defense. Checks leg kicks. Good power. Took a LOT of shots before going down against Linneker.
Ode Osbourne: Incredibly fast striking, great head movement, and reflexes. Keeps hands down. Good left head kick. Good wrestling, TDD, and submissions. High energy. Dangerous off his back.
Given the level of competition in Kelleher's fights, and how good he looks vs how good Ode looks vs his competition this fight is hard to bet. Odds are even so might be a decent late bet depending on weigh in results.
Women's Flyweight : Sabina Mazo vs. JJ Aldrich
Sabina Mazo: (Moroz fight)Lanky, Good TDD defense. Frames off well with elbow. Good wrist control from bottom. Might have decent BJJ. Sloppy, and weak striking. Poor head movement, and striking defense. Showed good adjustments in R3 ve Moroz. (Dobson fight)Mazo showed huge improvements in this fight. She's only 22 so that's right in there where fighters can make lots of improvements. Instagram indicates she is working on boxing technique, and her striking looks crisp and powerful. Based on the Dobson fight she is also probably working on her MT. If she improves as much this will be a very tough fight for JJ. Definitely a mean driven athlete that looks like she is taking MMA very seriously. Reminds me of Marina Rodriguez, but at only 22yo has huge room for improvement. Could be a huge future moneymaker for us.
JJ Aldrich: Grinding wrestler, decent striking, Likes to clinch. 2 inch height, and 6 inch reach disadvantage vs Mazo. Short arms and high elbow will leave her vulnerable to Mazo's liver kick. She'll probably also get stuck in the thai plum. JJ showed some decent striking improvements against Maycee barber. Good footwork, pressure, and distance control.
This fight looks like a mismatch. Will be betting Mazo considering her likely skill improvements, huge reach advantage, and clinch work. Easy bet.
Women's Strawweight : Cláudia Gadelha vs. Alexa Grasso
Cláudia Gadelha:Built like a brick shit house. Devastating close range striking, Poor striking beyond that. Despite 63 inch reach is capable of lunging with straight punches from medium range. Decent striking defense. Good leg kicks, Ok high kicks. Suffers from height, and reach problems. Excellent grappling, and submissions. Randa Markos wanted nothing to do with her on the ground if that says anything. Gadelha new camp(Mark Henry) so not going back farther than Markos aside from grappling/submission credentials. By the time she fought JJ in 2014 no one wanted anything to do with her on the ground. Her opponents are usually on their bicycle for 3 rounds.
Alexa Grasso: Poor head movement. Vulnerable to grappling. Sharp striking but with medium power. Suarez, and Esparza both punished her on the ground. Little to no evidence of a ground game.
Gadelha's heavy hands are going to punish her, but ultimately Grasso's sharper striking, and range will probably lead to Gadelha taking her down. My pick is Gadelha via sub.
Picks for UFC FN165
anyone else fucking hate this card for betting?
i have nasrat at -185 and i think that might be a wrap for me.
It should be clarified that everyone else is Amanda Nunes, Cris Cyborg, Germaine De Randamie and Valentina Shevchenko all of whom would also beat Pennington.
Separate names with a comma.