UFC 246 McGregor vs Cerrone

SelectFruits said:
I think you're just disagreeing with an obvious pick here for the sake of it.

You think Cowboy's smart gameplan should be to kick from range and shoot reactive doubles? What are you talking about.
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That obvious pick is nearing -250 now, I'm not disagreeing for the sake of it I'm disagreeing with the value on it and even said I expect Cerrone to get himself KO'd.

Not sure what's confusing in what I said, the guy needs to play to his strengths and avoid Conor's, and Conor's only real skill advantage is boxing. He should stay in kick range and when Conor comes forward to close the distance and box Cerrone needs to deny that with either the clinch or a reactive double which will lead to grappling and/or clinch exchanges both of which he'll have the advantage in. If he can keep that going for about 10 minutes denying Conor his one area of likely success he'll probably be finishing him in R3 as Conor gasses.
 
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Will any of you be in Las Vegas for this card?

I arrive in Vegas on Friday the 17th at 6:30pm, and leave on Sunday.

Message me if you want to meet up.
 
Has Yusuff's TDD ever been tested? I'm looking through his fight history, and from a fairly superficial scan, I can't see that he has fought opponents who go for TDs.
 
I don't see any value in Cowboy. I think he's brought in to lose. I know Cowboy normally isn't showing up with a loser mentality but after the JG fight i'm not so sure if Cowboy still has it to compete on a certain level. To me he looked really old in the JG fight. He was plodding slowly, poor reflexes and his defence was non-existent. His body language also told me "I'm done". This is most likely his farewell fight and a decent last payday as a professional MMA fighter. I didn't like what i saw from him recently. I know there is a game plan for him to expose McGregors weaknesses but the question is if Cowboy is still able to translate the theory into practice. I don't think so. I doubt he has better cardio than McGegor at this point. McGregor was able to win Round 3 vs. Khabib after he was grapplef***ed for two rounds. I doubt Cowboy will be able to tire McGregor out in the first half of the fight. I can see him catching McGregors lead leg with a few nice kicks, but McGregor is really light on his feet, not heavy on his lead leg, i doubt Cowboy has much success with aiming the lead leg. Also it'll be really tough for him to shoot in as i see McGregor moving out or catching him with a knee. Cowboy simply too slow.

I already put a decent parlay in - McGregor + Haqparast at + money.
 
I guess I should re-tape them both but I feel like I just did and don't wanna...

But doesn't Askarov give Elliot exactly the kind of fight he's after? I don't read much in to the Fig loss. The guy is a beast and at least Elliott went out quick without sustaining a beatdown first. Meanwhile, Askarov had a sloppy IQ test fail against Moreno who seems alright. Although the 'F' in KKF has always stood for Fraud anyways.
 
longway said:
Has Yusuff's TDD ever been tested? I'm looking through his fight history, and from a fairly superficial scan, I can't see that he has fought opponents who go for TDs.
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Honestly I'm pretty happy to fade Yusuff at this point. I think Benitez looked like a -150 in that fight and kinda got starched in a fight he was taking over pretty firmly, and even against Sheymon it was ultra competitive with just a knockdown to divide them.
 
Soccer Steve said:
I guess I should re-tape them both but I feel like I just did and don't wanna...

But doesn't Askarov give Elliot exactly the kind of fight he's after? I don't read much in to the Fig loss. The guy is a beast and at least Elliott went out quick without sustaining a beatdown first. Meanwhile, Askarov had a sloppy IQ test fail against Moreno who seems alright. Although the 'F' in KKF has always stood for Fraud anyways.
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Taped them.

Not wanting to get overly enthusiastic with the stink of Hooper-Teymur still hanging over me, but imo anything with a + beside Elliott is great value. Moreno beat Askar (Draw? gtfo) in a janky, scrambly fight when it was pretty clear he would've rather kept it on the feet. Yet off a TD of his own, Moreno dominates an entire round. And janky, scrambly, top-control is Elliott's forte and he'll be the bigger man chewing through minutes while in Askar's guard. Or he outvolumes him 3-1 if it stays standing.

Elliott likes to get subbed though and that is a real concern. However, I don't see Askar locking in the guillotine off a TD. I don't see a guard sub because Elliott has shown to defend those fine before. A RNC or back-take with body-lock to ride out round(s) is his PTV. But if Moreno can sweep and reverse and scramble, Tim Elliott surely, surely can.
 
Soccer Steve said:
Taped them.

Not wanting to get overly enthusiastic with the stink of Hooper-Teymur still hanging over me, but imo anything with a + beside Elliott is great value. Moreno beat Askar (Draw? gtfo) in a janky, scrambly fight when it was pretty clear he would've rather kept it on the feet. Yet off a TD of his own, Moreno dominates an entire round. And janky, scrambly, top-control is Elliott's forte and he'll be the bigger man chewing through minutes while in Askar's guard. Or he outvolumes him 3-1 if it stays standing.

Elliott likes to get subbed though and that is a real concern. However, I don't see Askar locking in the guillotine off a TD. I don't see a guard sub because Elliott has shown to defend those fine before. A RNC or back-take with body-lock to ride out round(s) is his PTV. But if Moreno can sweep and reverse and scramble, Tim Elliott surely, surely can.
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Agree with all of this, I thought Moreno should have won and Tim presents a lot of similar issues.
 
longway said:
Has Yusuff's TDD ever been tested? I'm looking through his fight history, and from a fairly superficial scan, I can't see that he has fought opponents who go for TDs.
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Not really but it's not like Fili is an amazing wrestler, though he is very good at sticking to a game plan imo.
 
Anyone who bets on Cowboy at those odds will actually deserve to have some ApplesVild criticism thrown thier way.
 
At even money I'm tempted to fade the 42 year old Oleinik here.
Maurice "The Crochet Boss" Greene doesn't inspire alot of confidence but still.
I don't think Aleksi's cardio will last too long so unless he gets an early ko or sub I've got to give it to Greene.
 
Sono07 said:
At even money I'm tempted to fade the 42 year old Oleinik here.
Maurice "The Crochet Boss" Greene doesn't inspire alot of confidence but still.
I don't think Aleksi's cardio will last too long so unless he gets an early ko or sub I've got to give it to Greene.
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I think Oleinik is entering that 'one clean punch and you wobble' territory, old as fuck too.
 

For some reason I'm not quite seeing the confidence here
 
The one thing that worries me with Greene is that he can get overwhelmed.
 
Oblivian said:
The one thing that worries me with Greene is that he can get overwhelmed.
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Yeah I just think after r1 those chances will fall off hard. I don't think Oleinik can sustain a pace for long or move as fast as the last Russian to dust Greene.
Seems like Greene ML with an Aleksi r1/sub hedge might be the way to go
 
SelectFruits said:
Don't sit on the fence this time, pick a side
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My side is there is no value either way. With all the red flags around Conor and the fact Cerrone has multiple solid paths to victory at best I'd cap it at -200/+200. +250-300 range Cerrone would be slightly tempting but livebets more than likely the best option with him. Can't play him pretape given he tends to forget he has a solid antipressure game he can use and he likes to start stupid blitzing combo's that are easy to counter and will likely get him KO'd here. If he's fighting smart I'll happily hit him.
 
Gugabe said:
Honestly I'm pretty happy to fade Yusuff at this point. I think Benitez looked like a -150 in that fight and kinda got starched in a fight he was taking over pretty firmly, and even against Sheymon it was ultra competitive with just a knockdown to divide them.
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I agree, Yusuff's striking is over-rated imo. His power is good, but his chin seems suspect as well. I like Fili at plus odds. I'm not sure whether I should pull the trigger now or not, in case the odds widen more.

Hellowhosthat said:
Not really but it's not like Fili is an amazing wrestler, though he is very good at sticking to a game plan imo.
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I remember him gettings TDs against Bermudez. I dont think he established top control though. Im going to watch quite a bit of tape on Fili, he seems to have improved recently.
 
Jordan3399 said:
My side is there is no value either way. With all the red flags around Conor and the fact Cerrone has multiple solid paths to victory at best I'd cap it at -200/+200. +250-300 range Cerrone would be slightly tempting but livebets more than likely the best option with him. Can't play him pretape given he tends to forget he has a solid antipressure game he can use and he likes to start stupid blitzing combo's that are easy to counter and will likely get him KO'd here. If he's fighting smart I'll happily hit him.
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Agree with this. Cowboy is likely going to get himself KO'd early, probably rd1 as he always starts slow and is too rigid on the feet. However if he actually employs a smart gameplan and makes it out of rd1, he will have a solid chance to take over as Conor slows and his power wanes. Current lines feel pretty accurate (65-70% that Conor sparks him out early)
 
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