UFC 246 McGregor vs Cerrone

Elliott is a bit of a loser. He has got the justin scoggins syndrome, he might do great for a while and then fucks up again.
 
Elliott is a bit of a loser. He has got the justin scoggins syndrome, he might do great for a while and then fucks up again.

He's just wild in his fight style, but it's not like he's constantly underperforming. The only loss that looked bad IMO was Nguyen. His other losses are as a dog for the most part.
 
Cowboy saying that he gonna stand and bang with Conor, LoL to anyone thinking that cowboy wanna win, he just wanna the paycheck, long time waiting for that money, gonna make easy work, get in, get down and cash the check.
 
Agree with this. Cowboy is likely going to get himself KO'd early, probably rd1 as he always starts slow and is too rigid on the feet. However if he actually employs a smart gameplan and makes it out of rd1, he will have a solid chance to take over as Conor slows and his power wanes. Current lines feel pretty accurate (65-70% that Conor sparks him out early)

If conor has a solid Rd 1 and cowboy survives I would imagine you would get some really high live odds for cowboy.
 
He's just wild in his fight style, but it's not like he's constantly underperforming. The only loss that looked bad IMO was Nguyen. His other losses are as a dog for the most part.
Yeah true, I don't rate him very highly though. As for Askarov, I think a draw vs a rejuvenated Moreno in your ufc debut is not a bad performance. Askarov gassed a bit.
 
I have zero confidence in Cerrone after he got stopped in the first fucking round by Gaethje. What an absolute moronic approach to that fight. I expect nothing less from him moving forward.

I got Conor by TKO/KO. In the 1st/2nd maybe 3rd.
 
Cowboy is clearly a setup fight by the ufc for conor to beat. Delusional to think otherwise. Otherwise the rightful opponent would have been someone like gaethje who happened to just clown cerrone not too long ago.
 
I have zero confidence in Cerrone after he got stopped in the first fucking round by Gaethje. What an absolute moronic approach to that fight. I expect nothing less from him moving forward.

I got Conor by TKO/KO. In the 1st/2nd maybe 3rd.

I'm willing to bet 50% of my bankroll Conor dusts Cerrone in the first. Or maybe I'm drunk as im writing this statement lol
 
conor looks like he is carrying too much body mass for his frame. i don't think 170 is suitable for him whatsoever.



he probably gets the job done early as it's a good match-up for him but i will certainly be waiting to live bet cowboy.
 
conor looks like he is carrying too much body mass for his frame. i don't think 170 is suitable for him whatsoever.



he probably gets the job done early as it's a good match-up for him but i will certainly be waiting to live bet cowboy.


I agree I think 155 or even 165 would be his ideal weight class.
 
Crazy to see Conor as the circle jerk already, or maybe it's just by a few confident posters. I'm goin with Cowboy but probably won't bet him til day of since I expect more money to come in on Conor (especially when the Irish get in town). For anyone saying Cowboy is only doing this for the check, he's already stated a couple times, he has a contract and isn't getting paid much more than he normally would. While I don't think it would be a surprise for Conor to KO Cowboy early, I think that's his only path to victory, a KO in round 1, maybe 2. I also doubt Cowboy sits there and trades with him for too long like he said he was going to, if he starts getting lit up, he'll clinch and take him down and then it's over imo. I just think Cowboy can win in more ways, including on the feet.
 
Fascinating how people think McGregor just has cardio for 1 or 2 rounds and Cowboy has a great chance of taking over then. McGregor won Round 3 vs. Khabib on many, many scorecards (including mine) after getting wrestled and grappled for two rounds by the most relentless pressure wrestler in the UFC. Not saying he won't gas but it's pretty harsh to think an early KO is the only path to victory for McGregor.

I can see at least two paths to victory for McGregor.

1. He is catching Cerrone early like JG did.
2. He outscores him from a kickboxing & boxing range.

I actually only see one for Cerrone:

1. Taking McGregor to the mat. All over again. Getting time on top. Maybe threatening with submissions.

I don't see Cowboy winning a kickboxing & boxing battle with McGregor. Not at this point. His chin is fragile and his face & skin is ready to explode or cut.

People also forget that not only McGregor will carry 10-15 pounds more - Cowboy will fight at 170 aswell. Not sure if it suits HIM. He looked really slow vs. JG at 155.
 
Fascinating how people think McGregor just has cardio for 1 or 2 rounds and Cowboy has a great chance of taking over then. McGregor won Round 3 vs. Khabib on many, many scorecards (including mine) after getting wrestled and grappled for two rounds by the most relentless pressure wrestler in the UFC. Not saying he won't gas but it's pretty harsh to think an early KO is the only path to victory for McGregor.

I can see at least two paths to victory for McGregor.

1. He is catching Cerrone early like JG did.
2. He outscores him from a kickboxing & boxing range.

I actually only see one for Cerrone:

1. Taking McGregor to the mat. All over again. Getting time on top. Maybe threatening with submissions.

I don't see Cowboy winning a kickboxing & boxing battle with McGregor. Not at this point. His chin is fragile and his face & skin is ready to explode or cut.

People also forget that not only McGregor will carry 10-15 pounds more - Cowboy will fight at 170 aswell. Not sure if it suits HIM. He looked really slow vs. JG at 155.
yes Fascinating, except who said anything about cardio? I'm saying he won't have as much pop on his punches in the later rounds. But while we're at the cardio subject, what makes you think his cardio has all the sudden made leaps and bounds? Because he survived a few rounds with Khabib in which he didn't do shit and didn't even try to get up from bottom and still looked weary? Conor's only knockouts have come in the 1st and 2nd and I just don't see him holding up at 170 vs Cowboy to win a decision either
 
I am gutted I put 1U on Dober at +200, now its +250. wtf? I don't get it.
 
I am gutted I put 1U on Dober at +200, now its +250. wtf? I don't get it.

Nasrat is super young, good, and improving. At age 31 Dober is who he is, which is OK, but Nasrat has 2” more reach and is the better striker with better output, and if he makes another leap in his game Dober is in big trouble.

I do think Dober has some chance. He has enough power to rock Nasrat and change the course of the fight, and we did see things get slightly Rocky for Nasrat vs Gouti, so Dober could pull it off.

But all things considered, Nasrat is the very obvious favorite and +200 odds aren’t that long. Not like this is a 50/50 matchup by any stretch
 
Nasrat is super young, good, and improving. At age 31 Dober is who he is, which is OK, but Nasrat has 2” more reach and is the better striker with better output, and if he makes another leap in his game Dober is in big trouble.

I do think Dober has some chance. He has enough power to rock Nasrat and change the course of the fight, and we did see things get slightly Rocky for Nasrat vs Gouti, so Dober could pull it off.

But all things considered, Nasrat is the very obvious favorite and +200 odds aren’t that long. Not like this is a 50/50 matchup by any stretch

Watched several Dober fights. He only loses as his TDD is lousy. For example, he was outstriking Dariush by a significant margin in R1.

He is a southpaw like Nasrat, so no advantage for either. I dont think the reach advantage means much unless Nasrat can manage range effectively, i havent seen him do that.

Nasrat has big power in his left, there is a power differential that is a significant factor here. Dober uses both hands to deliver strong combinations after trapping his opponent against the cage. He has done that every fight i watched.

Not denying Nasrat striking pedigree, but he is not elusive like anderson in his prime. This is going to be a fire fight, and Dober has a solid chin, nasrat needs to go for more TDs than normal to justify these odds. There should be a big artitrage opp LB if betting Dober now too imo as nasrat is a slow starter.

Yes, if Nasrat us showing things we haven't seen yet, then the odds might be justified, but i literally cant bet on that. Though the widened odds make me concerned people know something i dont.

According to Kelly criterion, at +200 Dober is worth 1u if he has 34% chance of winning.

I felt the value was in Dober's line, and now its widened, i am gutted. Its a big difference in money.
 
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I am gutted I put 1U on Dober at +200, now its +250. wtf? I don't get it.

Hedge now and bet the house on Haqparast. I put $100 on him to win by KO in his last fight with Joaqim Silva who was 11-2 before being KO'd by Haqparast. Nasrat is a legit contender at LW and is coming for the top 10 soon enough. Nasrat will be my largest bet of the fight.
 
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Watched several Dober fights. He only loses as his TDD is lousy. For example, he was outstriking Dariush by a significant margin in R1.

He is a southpaw like Nasrat, so no advantage for either. I dont think the reach advantage means much unless Nasrat can manage range effectively, i havent seen him do that.

Nasrat has big power in his left, there is a power differential that is a significant factor here. Dober uses both hands to deliver strong combinations after trapping his opponent against the cage. He has done that every fight i watched.

Not denying Nasrat striking pedigree, but he is not elusive like anderson in his prime. This is going to be a fire fight, and Dober has a solid chin, nasrat needs to go for more TDs than normal to justify these odds. There should be a big artitrage opp LB if betting Dober now too imo as nasrat is a slow starter.

Yes, if Nasrat us showing things we haven't seen yet, then the odds might be justified, but i literally cant bet on that. Though the widened odds make me concerned people know something i dont.

According to Kelly criterion, at +200 Dober is worth 1u if he has 34% chance of winning.

I felt the value was in Dober's line, and now its widened, i am gutted. Its a big difference in money.

Be careful. Tropic Thunder advice applies when it comes to Kelly Criterion.

Never go full Kelly.

It's way too aggressive and even if you are 100% perfect with your implied odd forecasting, variance might still wipe you out with a few losses in a row. Right now, I'm around 1/3rd Kellly and, even then, it'll recommend some % bets that I feel very uncomfortable with.
 
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