1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »

UFC 246 McGregor vs Cerrone

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Dec 15, 2019.

  1. Sono07 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2019
    Messages:
    4,395
    Likes Received:
    1,206
    I mean I probably wouldn't kick Holm girl outta bed for wearing her mouth guard.
    (Not that I could)
    What do you like about "Rocky" Pennington? Started taping wanting to play her but now I don't think I will.
    If Holly shows up I think she'll control distance much better.
     
  2. Red_2 Orange Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2018
    Messages:
    366
    Likes Received:
    24
    Bruh stop and think before you post. It takes half a second.
     
  3. Ideanudge Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2018
    Messages:
    3,625
    Likes Received:
    1,037
    I saw all his fights and he looks great, but his opposition weren't too technical, and he hasn't fought wrestlers. I was just taking the look alike parallel in gastelum who got outwrestled by physically stronger Weidman. Not that Drew is an accomplished wrestler, but he has visible physicality, and sometimes it is all you need to take skinny legs under someone. Nasrat looked impressive against flashy brazilian who swings wide and Thibault Gaudi, a guy who lost to Sage Northcutt.

    Read above and now you start thinking.
     
  4. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    4,197
    Likes Received:
    176
    IMO this is the definition of a coin flip fight. For whatever reason Pennington is always underrated. Raquel is good and makes all her fights close boxing matches. My prediction is a super close boxing fight that even after the bell we won't know who won.

    In fights like this for me it comes down to heart. I think Raquel is way more of a natural born fighter from a mental point of view. She is just dogged and gets in there to fight. Holly on the other hand seems to struggle mentally at times and get in her own head. Holly also seems to lack urgency in many of her fights in the later rounds. I don't know if she gets tired or what her deal is but so often in close fights Holly seems to coast in the later rounds which drives me nuts as the fight is still "up for grabs".

    I think the line is right on at the moment and there is no value on betting either ML. If I was going to bet I would be betting Raquel.
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2020
  5. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,206
    Likes Received:
    926
    Nasrat looks unatheletic. Bet Dober
    Holly is in a midlife crisis. Bet Raquel


    Expert analysis overload in here

    everyone wants you to watch their YouTube videos so they can make money

    smh
     
  6. Sono07 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2019
    Messages:
    4,395
    Likes Received:
    1,206
    Grasso coming in 5 pounds fat 121.5 and still looking kinda drained any thoughts?
     
  7. SolarSeiko Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2019
    Messages:
    2,937
    Likes Received:
    1,175
    Nothing. Raquel is a meh fighter. I'm purely basing it off that Holly is 38, long combat career, coming off a KO loss. From what we've seen in combat sports aging fighters lose speed and power with speed going first.

    Im def not parlaying this bet but I can see Raquel just edging a boring decision over an aging holly. At 38 why is she even fighting? There is virtually no chance she makes it back to a title shot.

    It's my opinion, I don't have a YouTube channel or twitter and I'm not promising wins. That i800 guy needs to chill out, it's Friday man. Go home and get laid or something, Jesus. You act like this is some highschool thing where you don't want the new kids to join the club. Some people may have crazy ass opinions on bets, you're gonna have to learn to deal with that.
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2020
  8. Sono07 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2019
    Messages:
    4,395
    Likes Received:
    1,206
    Yeah I could see value in the decision line for either fighter. Ive got to imagine Holm is still fighting because that what she has done most of her life with the kickboxing and all.
    Tempted to stab the decision line of the HGH experiment that ate "The preachers daughter". Don't mind 800 I think everyone gets antsy with these long breaks. Alot of passers bys like to post before these big cards too so i see where he is coming from
     
  9. SolarSeiko Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2019
    Messages:
    2,937
    Likes Received:
    1,175
    I've always been curious if Holly played with PEDs. She posted a pic of her body from 15 years ago and it's a night and day difference in muscle. She has a Crossfitter type body today which is impressive at her age.
     
  10. TheSportsWhale White Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2020
    Messages:
    8
    Likes Received:
    0
    Good luck! I've locked in the amounts and will be going with $150 on the four teamer and $250 on the 3 teamer (Ledet/Camur excluded).
     
  11. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    4,197
    Likes Received:
    176
    DNFTT
     
  12. HeadsUpPoker Green Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2014
    Messages:
    1,127
    Likes Received:
    30
    Grasso coming in overweight.. Perhaps a good sign? Statistically i think coming in overweight has a good record?

    Ledet looking more soft compared to his last weigh in.

    McGregor looking huge. I personally dont think adding muscle, when you already have a suspect cardio, is a good idea for him. Ready to livebet Conor if he survives early.

    I am probably gonna stick with my Ledet and Grasso bets.
     
  13. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    4,197
    Likes Received:
    176
    Look at her shoulders. She has some pretty serious bulk for a girl.
     
  14. benebox Black Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2015
    Messages:
    5,426
    Likes Received:
    901
    It's from 'The Dark Crystal' series on Netflix's, I highly recommend it although it may not be everyone's cup of tea.

    I'm tempted by the +180 Pennington decision, in a fight that is likely to be a very close points victory whoever wins.
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2020
  15. Stunna77 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2015
    Messages:
    2,552
    Likes Received:
    3
    Will start the event up $450 or almost 1u, BOL had lines for weigh-ins, Cowboy O169 and Conor O168, haha. $50 limits but could rebet after 60 seconds.
     
  16. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2018
    Messages:
    4,768
    Likes Received:
    1,216
    You seriously have to ask this about someone with the ridiculous, unnatural amount of muscle of Holly Holm? Especially her traps and delts, two muscles women normally have very few androgen receptors for and thus can't build no matter how much they work out?

    Jessica Penne of all people was recently busted for anabolics. Just assume, unless instructed otherwise, that every single UFC fighter is using PEDs to some extent. Some simply use in far greater quantities than others.
     
  17. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,206
    Likes Received:
    926
    Your reasoning for your bets is terrible.

    you’re just leading other inexperienced players toward an empty bankroll

    you can voice your opinions, I’m just going to call you out when I think they suck
     
  18. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2018
    Messages:
    4,768
    Likes Received:
    1,216
    To be fair, I think you've described like 80% of the analysis here, and why I very rarely bother reading these topics anymore.
     
  19. null Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    16,361
    Likes Received:
    0
    Alexa Grasso weighed in very heavy at 121.5 pounds for her strawweight bout with Claudia Gadelha. It's always debatable about whether that is good for the fighter that came in heavy or bad for the fighter that came in heavy.
     
  20. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,206
    Likes Received:
    926
    Yea never mind holm being the more skilled striker and athlete, as well as having better cardio and a better clinch game.

    She’s 2 years older than she was in a fight where she arguably beat gdr and she’s also coming off a ko loss. You know because that’s a huge factor since rocky has knocked out so many gals.

    Bet rocky at almost evens. Massive edge
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.