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UFC 246 McGregor vs Cerrone

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Dec 15, 2019.

  1. HeadsUpPoker Green Belt

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    How do you see a really muscular Conor lasting 5 rounds with Cerrone, who does better in the later rounds? If Diaz was good at wrestling, he could probably finish conor in round 4 and 5 in the rematch. Cerrone has that option if it goes into those rounds.
     
  2. DevilsPt2 Minion

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    My thoughts on the first 4 counter opinion appreciated.

    Mazo is going to be better at kicking range and in the clinch, she will have some trouble at boxing range but the fight shouldnt stay at that distance for significant periods and Aldrich wont attempt to do enough when it is.Aldrich will probably attempt some takedowns but she is the lighter, weaker fighter with a light top game. She would rather strike than grapple and if the takedowns seem too difficult, I think Aldrich will just stop trying. If Mazo gets on top Aldrich wont be able to score enough to make up for it and will very likely lose the round.For Aldrich to win shes going to have to maintain boxing distance and be active enough to win a decision. Her chance of finishing are nanoscopic. Mazo the much better chance to finsh the fight but the slight favorite to win by decision. Mazo has a hgher ceiling. I cap Mazo no worse than -125 but could make a case for -150.

    Obviously Ledet is going to dance around the cage, try to maintain distance and make his jab both a tool to keep distance but also to score ALL of his points. Hes a low power former HW with a strong chin, a ground game(by necessity)and limited offense. Very sad. Very sad to say it might be enough, fuck. I dont like Ledet, at all, dude is a tard with major personal issues but Camur is limited as well as undersized. At least Camurs young so he can improve, right? Yes and no. Yes he can improve but his youth also showed when he was talking about how he might be the guy to beat Jones. He doesnt even realize just how far apart they are. He probably thinks that hes better than he is and that could limit growth. Camur likely wont be able to cut off the cage, Ledet will be able to dance around him, avoid Camurs offense and score his baby points. I've seen a glimpse of Camur throwing a leg kick, forcing the clinch when standup wasnt going his way and look like he might attempt a takedown. If Camur follows Ledet around the cage hes not going to land the KO and he will lose a decision, if he strikes, clinches, strikes, attempts a takedown its his fight to lose. I cap Camur and Ledet at +125, wouldnt go for the ML on either but I like fgtd at +110.

    People will be sweating ths fight. There is no way Haq wins 75%+. I know hes good, great even but folks act like hes the Yan of his division. Hes an athlete/technician first and a fighter second, hes not ferocious enough, he will instinctually chose the safe/correct next move instead of the ferocious. He will prob give away the first round and come on strong in the third but he wont be ferocious when he does it, he will be technical even if hes down 2 rounds. If Dober stays in his face and makes him move back, Haq will be limited by his technique and Dober will take the lead, Dober is a great striker himself with 13 UFC fights, you very likely cant name a time of the top of your head that Dober has been outstruck in his career. He got dropped by OAM but overall I would say he has a great chin. I dont see how anyone can be confident Haq finishes or wins a decision much more often.If someone gets dropped it would probably be Dober. The grappling can go either way, maybe Dober will attempts some takedowns, maybe Haq but this fight should be decided standing. I cap Haq at -150.

    This fight should be spent on the ground through significant portions of the fight. Both guys will attempt a lot of submissions but both guys are proficient on the ground. Elliott is the better wrestler but Askarov likes being on his back, he will even pull guard. Elliott should be the fighter holding top position. Whos more likely to get the sub, Askarof on his back or Elliott on top? The public says Askaroff wins ITD around 40% of the time while Elliott wins ITD 15% of the time. Thats ridiculous. Askaroff is sub threat only in a fight where he will likely be on his back unless he can sweep to top position. Basic triangle/armbars set ups are very unlikely to work and Elliott will get a easy pass. Front chokes seem more likely. Though Elliott has 4 sub losses in his 23 fights, it's not exactly his sub defense that lead to these loses. He was facing multiple threats and was under fire against Fig and Nguyen, that not going to happen here, Benavidez and Fig have better guillotines than a lot of people, including Askarov. Askarov chances of finishing are close to Elliotts, maybe he has a slight advantage but not 40% to 15%. The decision clearly favors Elliott. I cap Elliott at -125 but I feel more comfortable capping him at +100. I also like fgtd at -120, I expect it to go to decision at least 60%, could be slightly higher.

    A lot of the fights on ths card are close, not really any "safe" picks with playable odds.
     
  3. null Gold Belt

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    Ariel Helwani UFC 246 Preview on ESPN Radio:

     
  4. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    It's his birthday today. Love to celebrate with him win ITD props and retire Pettis.
     
  5. SolarSeiko Brown Belt

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    that Usada jar is going to retire him. dude can't even piss in a cup without getting hurt.
     
  6. BTC_ANDERSON_BELFORT Banned Banned

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    YOOO ALL THESE LITTLE TOXIC KIDS THAT BET 10 DOLLARS A UNIT REALLY ALL TRYING TO TEAM UP AGAINST ME LOLOLOL THATS SO CUTE HOW U GUYS THINK YOURE SO SHARP I GOTTA LAUGH MAN <45><Lmaoo><45> Screen Shot 2020-01-18 at 3.25.00 PM.png
     
  7. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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  8. SolarSeiko Brown Belt

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    You didn't address what I asked. When did the UFC hire state athletic judges? Stop trying to change the topic. You can bet 5000 more than me and it still doesn't answer why and how the UFC pays the judges to be corrupt.

    You're poorly attempting to deflect your outrageous claim by posting a picture of your wagers that are unrelated to your stupid claim of corruption. Your parents and your local school board failed you.
     
  9. BTC_ANDERSON_BELFORT Banned Banned

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    BRO YOURE A REAL SHARP CAPPER I TAKE YOUR OPINION VERY SERIOUSLY, I DONT THINK I FIT IN WITH THE PPL HERE IM NOT GONNA POST ANYMORE HAVE FUN GUYS GOOD LUCK ON YOUR BETS Screen Shot 2020-01-18 at 4.08.45 PM.png
     
  10. Subli Black Belt

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    Hopefully I don't get banned for this but

    Can anyone PM a stream plz?

    Seems like most of them are down
     
  11. SolarSeiko Brown Belt

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    That's illegal dude.
     
  12. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Roxy GOAT.png

    Not that I'm smug or anything
     
  13. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    Happy birthday CDF!
     
  14. jm5000 Orange Belt

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    Easyy money

    upload_2020-1-19_4-52-43.png
     
  15. STILLWORKINONIT White Belt

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    Ledet was robbed!!! Ledet won every round. Camurs punches and kicks were all blocked. They gave it to Camur because of his connections to Stipe and UFC. What a joke!!
     
  16. SolarSeiko Brown Belt

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  17. SolarSeiko Brown Belt

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    lol I don't know about robbed. But I'm sure glad I hammered down hard on Camur, Sodiq and Askar parlay because Pettis raped my wallet.
     
  18. jm5000 Orange Belt

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    Look at the dates. I live in ny drove in to nj a little after the fight was announced, thats pretty much where the odds were at first i knew his popularity would blow them up close to the fight. Prob wont take his next fight tho if it someone like masvidal that too close to call i usually stick to nba lol
     
  19. SolarSeiko Brown Belt

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    Thats nut because I can't even bet on the props like that so early. I don't know if Dana has the nuts to match Conor with a fighter that hasn't taken brutal KO losses. Masvidal has an okay jaw.
    Good on you man!
     
  20. jm5000 Orange Belt

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    The prop i got like a week before, wish i got in on modaferri though that would have been real nice lol must have felt good for whoever took her against barber n schevchenko
     

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