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Fair enough. Yeah -1000 is LOL but Maycees physicality should make the difference.
UFC 246 McGregor vs Cerrone
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Feel like a breakdown is in order with the Roxanne-Barber fight, and Happy Christmas 
Firstly a few things about Barber. She has not beaten a single legit flyweight, Aldrich and Robertson are both former strawweights and Hannah Cifers is closer to atomweight. She’s also really not a great technical or highly skilled fighter, she can’t strike going backwards, is defensively wide open anywhere in a fight and has only basic striking. Her clinch game is all offence and she has shown a poor understanding of position there, not pummelling for underhooks or knowing when to strike or not. In the past she has clearly just outmuscled girls like Cifers who repeatedly got good positions on her and who almost reversed one of her takedown attempts but was too small. Barbers takedown defence is not proven at all and Mallory Martin, who is not a good wrestler by any means, got her down consistently when they fought 2 years ago, and Aldrich also had her falling on her ass repeatedly slipping on strikes. Robertson had a couple of weak clinch attempts that were stuffed but nothing too challenging or conclusive and a lot of her assumptions seemed be getting made due to her training with Askren for a relatively short time.
Barbers power is also a bit questionable, she hits hard no doubt. But I think her power is getting overrated due to girls badly reacting to it. Robertson and Aldrich ate a lot of clean shots and reacted badly, but neither were wobbling or got dropped, they largely broke mentally. Cifers is tiny and may have got TKO’d but actually ate a lot of big shots standing from Barber fine, she was only in trouble when she got cut and made the mistake of going for leg locks and getting herself stuck in a bad position to be ground and pounded. Overall, I think that a lot of favourable match ups vs undersized opponents has really got people overestimating Barbers ability and potential.
In comparison you have Roxy. For a start she’s a girl that’s fought as high as featherweight and has been fighting the best in the division for years. Notably, she is 2 inches taller than Barber with 4 inches of reach. This is the first time Barber will be at either disadvantage and this is her biggest and strongest opponent by far in the UFC. Roxy has upped her strength and conditioning a lot in the last year and I thought it really showed against Shevchenko, who is also very strong in the clinch (watch Shev next fight handle Pudilova). I don’t think she’s that powerful but average strength and a big technique advantage goes a long way. Striking Roxy throws a lot of volume, long and straight up the middle, and with Barbers awful defence she can land on Barber and likely back her up at times. She herself also won’t backdown easily at all like other girls have and marched down Shevchenko, who is a great striker, for minutes at a time until she could get the clinch in their fight. On the ground Roxy should do well. She is a very tricky grappler with solid BJJ and when we saw Barber on her back was vs Martin it wasn’t pretty at all. I expect she’s improved but it was a bad look what she showed there, and Roxy is vicious on top and has nice control, Roxy finishing there wouldn’t be a surprise. Also worth noting that Roxy has been KO’d once and that was via slam against Kaufman in 2010, she won’t be easy to finish and likely takes Barber the distance.
Another thing I think is important to look at though is both of Roxy’s last two fights, people on average people think she did great vs Shev and poorly against Maia. I don’t think she looked significantly worse, the mistake she made was approaching both fights with the same gameplan despite Maia and Shevchenko having vastly different clinch games. Shevchenko in the clinch is offensively minded going strikes and off the Thai plum but this in turn disadvantages her positionally and she ends up giving up underhooks which eventually let Roxy get takedowns. In comparison Maia is all about digging underhooks to control position. Therefore all Roxy’s TD attempts got stuffed and she lost vs Maia but had success against Shev. If you compare Barber to both Maia and Shevchenko, for a start her striking technique is a lot worse and both Maia and Shev’s success was largely off countering. Barber can’t counter well at all so there is a good chance Roxy has quite a bit of success which she couldn’t do in prior fights. Also if you look at Barbers clinch game she is like a less technically sound Shevchenko with more one-shot power. She is all about strikes and not positioning like Maia, which leads me to think there is a good chance Roxy gets TDs as she can find the positions she needs to.
I’m expecting improvements from Barber for sure, but stylistically this isn’t a terrible match up at all for Roxy and a solid step up for Barber so to have her at around -1000 seems crazy. I’d cap Roxy at around +200 and that’s giving Barber a lot of respect.
Firstly a few things about Barber. She has not beaten a single legit flyweight, Aldrich and Robertson are both former strawweights and Hannah Cifers is closer to atomweight. She’s also really not a great technical or highly skilled fighter, she can’t strike going backwards, is defensively wide open anywhere in a fight and has only basic striking. Her clinch game is all offence and she has shown a poor understanding of position there, not pummelling for underhooks or knowing when to strike or not. In the past she has clearly just outmuscled girls like Cifers who repeatedly got good positions on her and who almost reversed one of her takedown attempts but was too small. Barbers takedown defence is not proven at all and Mallory Martin, who is not a good wrestler by any means, got her down consistently when they fought 2 years ago, and Aldrich also had her falling on her ass repeatedly slipping on strikes. Robertson had a couple of weak clinch attempts that were stuffed but nothing too challenging or conclusive and a lot of her assumptions seemed be getting made due to her training with Askren for a relatively short time.
Barbers power is also a bit questionable, she hits hard no doubt. But I think her power is getting overrated due to girls badly reacting to it. Robertson and Aldrich ate a lot of clean shots and reacted badly, but neither were wobbling or got dropped, they largely broke mentally. Cifers is tiny and may have got TKO’d but actually ate a lot of big shots standing from Barber fine, she was only in trouble when she got cut and made the mistake of going for leg locks and getting herself stuck in a bad position to be ground and pounded. Overall, I think that a lot of favourable match ups vs undersized opponents has really got people overestimating Barbers ability and potential.
In comparison you have Roxy. For a start she’s a girl that’s fought as high as featherweight and has been fighting the best in the division for years. Notably, she is 2 inches taller than Barber with 4 inches of reach. This is the first time Barber will be at either disadvantage and this is her biggest and strongest opponent by far in the UFC. Roxy has upped her strength and conditioning a lot in the last year and I thought it really showed against Shevchenko, who is also very strong in the clinch (watch Shev next fight handle Pudilova). I don’t think she’s that powerful but average strength and a big technique advantage goes a long way. Striking Roxy throws a lot of volume, long and straight up the middle, and with Barbers awful defence she can land on Barber and likely back her up at times. She herself also won’t backdown easily at all like other girls have and marched down Shevchenko, who is a great striker, for minutes at a time until she could get the clinch in their fight. On the ground Roxy should do well. She is a very tricky grappler with solid BJJ and when we saw Barber on her back was vs Martin it wasn’t pretty at all. I expect she’s improved but it was a bad look what she showed there, and Roxy is vicious on top and has nice control, Roxy finishing there wouldn’t be a surprise. Also worth noting that Roxy has been KO’d once and that was via slam against Kaufman in 2010, she won’t be easy to finish and likely takes Barber the distance.
Another thing I think is important to look at though is both of Roxy’s last two fights, people on average people think she did great vs Shev and poorly against Maia. I don’t think she looked significantly worse, the mistake she made was approaching both fights with the same gameplan despite Maia and Shevchenko having vastly different clinch games. Shevchenko in the clinch is offensively minded going strikes and off the Thai plum but this in turn disadvantages her positionally and she ends up giving up underhooks which eventually let Roxy get takedowns. In comparison Maia is all about digging underhooks to control position. Therefore all Roxy’s TD attempts got stuffed and she lost vs Maia but had success against Shev. If you compare Barber to both Maia and Shevchenko, for a start her striking technique is a lot worse and both Maia and Shev’s success was largely off countering. Barber can’t counter well at all so there is a good chance Roxy has quite a bit of success which she couldn’t do in prior fights. Also if you look at Barbers clinch game she is like a less technically sound Shevchenko with more one-shot power. She is all about strikes and not positioning like Maia, which leads me to think there is a good chance Roxy gets TDs as she can find the positions she needs to.
I’m expecting improvements from Barber for sure, but stylistically this isn’t a terrible match up at all for Roxy and a solid step up for Barber so to have her at around -1000 seems crazy. I’d cap Roxy at around +200 and that’s giving Barber a lot of respect.
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I don't get this sense of inevitability for Nasrat. What reasons do you have?
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From what I can gather Roxy is on a regular strength and conditioning schedule, training MT, and some boxing on a regular basis. If she tags Barber a few good shots Barber might just forget she will get ruined on the mat. Roxy's striking has been getting better every match lately.
This fight might be a hell of a lot closer than -800.
Jordan agree 100%
Roxy is at +600 on William Hill. I think it's worth a gamble. I'll watch as the odds keep improving. Mbe bet at the first dip.
This fight might be a hell of a lot closer than -800.
Jordan agree 100%
Roxy is at +600 on William Hill. I think it's worth a gamble. I'll watch as the odds keep improving. Mbe bet at the first dip.
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OneWarrior1
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How is conor itd not an all in play come ME time? I know you degens will do it.
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It's a little too juiced for my likings at -165, I've gotten better ITD prices from heavyweights even. The bookies are definitely on the know that over the hill cowboy getting ko'd. Under 1.5 rounds at -110 is a more appealing price to me. Conor's chances of getting a ko exponentially decreases the further rounds the fight goes. In his career he's never gotten a ko past the 2nd round.
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Roxy is so unatheletic and uncoordinated. It’s not even like she has good single leg like gillian Robertson. She just wades in with punches like a zombie until she can get a clinch. Kind of like ronda rousey.
Think barber could probably beat her on her strength and athleticism alone
price might be wide, I guess it’s worth a punt. Roxy is tough and gritty and there’s a chance she could trip barber up and possibly sub her
I’d have to watch a little tape
Think barber could probably beat her on her strength and athleticism alone
price might be wide, I guess it’s worth a punt. Roxy is tough and gritty and there’s a chance she could trip barber up and possibly sub her
I’d have to watch a little tape
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He has a good chin,cardio, trains with a good team, is evolving and in stand up he might even knock Dober out. This last guy he beat was a level above Dober too .
Dober has 5% to win, Cerrone on the other hand has 35% chance to win, he will be bigger than Conor and if it pasts round 2 than his chance gets higher . I want Conor to win to fight Masvidal but it will be hard
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I don't think Roxy does well against people that can really bully her physically, I think Barber is a very bad match up for her. I'm not interested in Barber at those odds but she should be heavy favourite.
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You could attribute many of the same qualities to Dober who has never been bested in stand-up battles, all his losses (well, the ones I taped anyway) came from his opponents grounding him. Would you say Silva's striking is better than Dariush? Silva and Nasrat were well matched, but R2 Nasrat made the reads necessary to land his overhand left. That's always going to be a factor and as people pointed out he is a developing martial artist, so he will have made improvements. I can understand him being the favourite, esp as Dober has weak TDD, but I can only line this for Nasrat around -160 to -165 at best. You are talking as if this is a mismatch.
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Anyone have some thoughts on the Ledet vs Camur and Grasso vs Gadelha fights? Potential value on both fights.
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Gadelha should wrestle a dec
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ledet looked like crap in his last 3 fights and Camur looks strong with good striking
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I'm not convinced Barber is either as powerful as the people that have bullied Roxy in the past or anywhere near as technical to make the most of that strength, she's beaten a group of weak and small flyweights. In comparison I'd take all of Roxy's UFC opponents minus Honchak over Barber happily and think they'd probably beat her quite badly.
Also the big difference between Maia and Shevchenko fights was Maia using underhooks, and Barber rarely goes for underhooks and makes all of the mistakes that Shevchenko did that allowed Roxy to get TDs. Plus Barber will be far easier to clinch with than Shevchenko who was very elusive and rangey. I can see it being an easier fight than that was for sure.
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Roxy propably looses but she will fight for your money and has some paths to victory
win rounds with her high volume herky jerky pitter patter punches
win rounds with top control on the ground or a possible sub/gnp tko as she likely has a bjj advantage
score points with some wall n stall for a close decision
win rounds with her high volume herky jerky pitter patter punches
win rounds with top control on the ground or a possible sub/gnp tko as she likely has a bjj advantage
score points with some wall n stall for a close decision
piglord
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roxy is going to die if she can't get the fight to the mat. i think her only path to victory is saying fuck it and going all out to score an early takedown and find a submission.
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Merry Christmas you filthy animals.
Camur looks really slow on tape. And not using many kicks which is a good weapon against lead leg heavy guys like Ledet because you can score easily without taking too much risks. And i think Ledet is vulnerable to those lead leg kicks. He looked hurt a few times. If Ledet is in shape and could train without injuries in camp, i favor him slightly. Camur might improve, he's young, but you can clearly see that he's a late starter. He lacks wrestling, grappling and kicking, he's primarily a pure striker and now he's facing a technical striker + height, reach disadvantage. Ledet didn't look particulary bad vs. Rakic. Rakic took him down and dominated him on the ground. Camur won't shoot for any TDs here. I also talked to some guys and they told me Camur isn't really heavy handed. I can see Ledet outpointing this guy. So many questionmarks over Camur like cardio for example. He fought like 8 minutes in total in his pro career.
