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UFC 247 PBP/Discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by PuertoRican, Feb 8, 2020.

  1. joenewbie Orange Belt

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    Wow. So does advancing and throwing shots that don't land count heavily as "octagon control" and "aggression"? What if that fighter is getting counter punched constantly by their opponent who isn't moving forward? Maybe it's time to quit judging based on terms like "control" and "aggression" and just look at significant strikes like Conley says

    For those betting Jones in the -400 to -800 range: Do you now continue to play him at those odds figuring that the judges will give him a win in a close fight or do you fade him figuring that the odds should have been much closer and he may get beat soon?
     
  2. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    That’s a troll account. Not actually the “judge”
     
  3. 2bet Green Belt

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    I would have had a red pantys night if Adams had won, I had bet way too much on him, the forum seduced me on this.
    Every other bet won though, luckily.

    In the first half of last year I won so much, then the second half I totally failed, now I am still struggling to trust my instincts again.
    But it's getting better, confidence is rising
     
  4. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Adams not only deciding to strike for no reason, but also having completely rebuilt his stance and shot selection to make them both less effective was truly a special moment.

    Like if he'd just straight up shot a single leg he still wins that fight at a massive clip. Tafa would struggle with early UFC competition. If he didn't train with JW why did he suddenly look like a budget Travis Browne instead of sticking to the jabs and TDs that defined the rest of his career.
     
  5. So does Izzy beat Jones?

    A big 205lber that used to wrestle in college hopping up from Jones takedowns =/= a MW with a striking background.

    I guess we'll have to see how Izzy handles Romero's takedowns IF Romero decides to shoot.
     
  6. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    Hard to say, but I'm certain now Stipe would smoke Jones. He's definitely declined, he wouldn't be able to takedown Stipe and the boxing with heavyweight power would be too much. I think Jones knows this and has no intention of moving up will continue to defend belt at light heavy.
     
  7. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    I didn't publically post my analysis for Reyes-Jones and why I put 2u on Reyes (and I wanted to add more; now glad I didn't thanks to the fight fixing), but one thing I noted is that ever since the Gustaffson rematch, and becoming more and more prominent against Smith and Santos, Jones' boxing AND wrestling have both massively regressed.

    He has a sloppy double-leg shot with no set-up where he bends forward 90 degrees at the waist and hopes his insane grip, physical strength, and athleticism will pull him through. Guess what? It doesn't.

    Even for former middleweights (Smith until very late in the fight, after being badly beaten up by strikes, and Santos), or average-sized 205 pounders with average wrestling who were taken down twice by a master grappler in Volkan Oezdemir and the wrestling genius known as Jeremy Kimball.

    Israel Adesanya looked like an absolute terror to even take down versus Brunson (very good wrestler), Gastelum (good wrestler), and Whittaker (good wrestler), showcasing textbook perfect takedown defense and shocking physical strength, and then popped up immediately in the rare instances he was down for a moment. Reyes has always been excellent at getting up, but Israel is just as good, maybe even better.

    So yes, based on Jones losing two fights in a row and what he showed there, I would cap Izzy as a favorite here.

    And since Dana apparently loves Adesanya and is promoting the hell out of him, he might even get a fair crack with the judges.
     
  8. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    As we all knew beforehand tough card to bet. As it played out it was harder than we thought. 6 of the 12 bouts were either split decisions or super close.

    In hindsight best value on the card was Zalal ML and Valentina ITD.

    I will be looking to play Valentina ITD in the future as she is becoming a vicious finisher. Vals fight was a highlight to me. She is outstanding.

    Jones over also a good bet that I plan to hit in the future.
     
  9. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    Jones arguably lost his last 2 fights. Had Santos not sustained an injury he almost surely would have won that fight.

    At this point anyone that makes it to fight Jones has a decent chance of winning.

    I dunno if its JJ off the juice but he has looked very human in his last two fights.
     
  10. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    What does this mean, exactly? Are you just picking random bets that hit? If that's the case, Williams KO round 1 prop against Morono was clearly the best value.

    But if you mean predictable bets, neither Zalal ML at even +200 and especially not Valentina ITD at +170 were obviously sound.

    Zalal-Lingo was a fight with limited information, as we knew so, so little about Lingo aside from him having tremendous boxing. We had no clue what his takedown defense was like or how he looked off the bottom, or his cardio.

    We knew a lot more about Zalal; namely that his boxing was very raw and mediocre, his defense flawed, that he is a very average wrestler (being taken down at will by Mariscal and struggling to take down anyone half-decent) with okay jits, and his cardio is decent.

    Zalal won by putting on his track shoes for the entire fight, avoiding any sort of toe-to-toe exchanges, and clinching for dear life at every opportunity. A smart strategy, and one that not many 23 year-olds are able to implement, let alone so well.

    Thus, there was no reason to think Zalal at +200 was necessarily value with such unknown variables unless you just like to cap every young, talented unknown like Lingo as being +100 whenever he steps up in competition.

    And if that's so, okay, you win on Zalal here, but you lost your shirt on Bochniak against Woodson, or Shahbazyan versus Stewart, Byrd, and Tavares with that same approach.

    As for Valentina ITD or Valentina decision, I've said it earlier in the topic; Valentina never, ever forces anything. She takes whatever her opponents give her and nothing more. Deciding whether she is going to finish or simply win a dominant decision is a fool's errand.

    If Chookagian merely wanted to survive to the final bell, like Carmouche, she absolutely could have. Instead, she actually tried to win, and was finished thanks to the additional risk. Nevermind that the stoppage was a little premature, as Jacob Montalvo suddenly suffered a horrible flashback to what happened to Mario Yamasaki when he allowed Valentina to inflict GNP on an opponent on a similar level to what we frequently see in men's MMA that go the distance.

    A ITD choice mostly dependent on one fighter's mindset and some random circumstances with a takedown and referee? That's not solid, even at +170.

    I wasn't a fan of the Valentina decision prop everyone was hitting, but excluding hindsight bias, I'm also not going to pretend that Valentina ITD was particularly good, either.
     
  11. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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    Valentina has become a finisher plain and simple. Whether or not she rushes into a situation is not the argument. Over 25 minutes, you shouldn’t be getting 2:1 for her to finish an opponent and yes it was one of the stronger bets of the card.
     
  12. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    I mean Zalal had proven actual cardio, grappling and the like. I played +225 and felt that you'd essentially have to assume that the ultra raw Lingo was atleaat a C-tier UFC fighter to justify his price considering he'd shown poor TDD and defense.

    Zalal coming out and looking like a -300 was unexpected though bit you can steer into uncertainty
     
  13. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    That mounted crucifix is nasty and she is proficient at gaining that position.

    I dont think I have seen any other wmma fighter use it.
     
  14. OneWarrior1 Brown Belt

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    Reyes gave it away by doing fook all in the 5th rd. Gotta beat the champ convincingly and tell a consistent story. His body language made him look like a loser to the disengaged judges. I personally had Jones winning rds 2, 3, 4, 5 and even 6.
     
  15. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    She's the same fighter she was for the JJ fight, Eye fight, and Carmouche fight. Nothing has changed in terms of her approach.

    This is getting into BTCAndersonBelfort hindsight bias territory.

    Shevchenko ITD was such a "strong bet" that I count 8 different bettors (including Sadistics and the guy who liked your post, LEMONZEST) going with the exact opposite play, Shevchenko by decision, and exactly 1 who hit Shevchenko ITD (shout-outs to @EvolXDan).

    If you're going into "could have should have with zero reasoning" territory, just say Khaos Williams by round 1 KO was the strongest bet of the card.
     
  16. Cockadoodle Blue Belt

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    Obvious troll post

    Tho I do agree if you want to beat the champ you have to do it in the championship rounds. I doubt the judges put down their scores at the end of each round, rather waiting till the end of the fight and reverse engineering who they think should win. Otherwise it was an obvious win to Reyes r1 2 &3
     
  17. Red_2 Orange Belt

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    I think this happens more often than we think. Transparent scoring, as in putting the scores on screen and in the arena would cut out so many bullshit decisions.
     
  18. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    I think live scoring would be good for the sport but bad for bettors. The oddsmakers would know exactly how to set the live lines. Personally, I think it makes live betting much more interesting by not knowing where we are at.
     
  19. Rewatched the fight.

    The night of, I was rather inebriated and thought Jones possibly won round 3.

    Upon rewatch, Reyes 1,2,3 for fucking sure.

    I'm pissed. I didn't post much on here leading up to the fight, I've had a horrible past few months betting wise.

    But I told all my casual friends Reyes would win, and they were laughing. Someone said he'd jump out of his window is Jones lost.

    I don't get the gratification of being right and predicting and betting on such a huge upset because of fucking judges.

    I've lost money because of judges before, but not in a fight of this magnitude. Jones is the GOAT imo. And I was almost on the right end of the end of his legacy.
     
  20. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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    Wait, what does other people’s bets have to do with my lean on 2:1 Schev ITD? Hindsight bias is one thing but I called Schev in the original fight thread as my favorite bet on the card.

    Another poster disagreed and I said she has a lot of weapons. This is all in the thread if you care to look through it though not sure why you would.

    My point is Schev has evolved into a finisher. Yes, she’s patient. Yes she chooses her moments to be aggressive.. but more and more she will be finishing people. She has too many weapons now.

    Either way comparing me to some scrub ass losing gambler is just laziness on your part. You can do better.
     

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