UFC 250

Tony looked in phenomenal shape at weigh ins. Is Magny in trouble?
anthony-rocco-martin-poses-on-the-scale-during-the-ufc-250-weighin-at-picture-id1246377653

neil-magny-anthony-rocco-martin-ufc-250-official-weigh-ins.jpg
In trouble of losing a split decision?
 
Does anyone know if books will go back and change the cancellation on Heinisch fight? I need to know before I place hedge bets

That's what I got from pinnacle:

Dear Client,
We are writing to you because our records indicate you wagered on the UFC fight between Gerald Meerschaert vs Ian Heinisch.
UFC had previously indicated that that fight was no longer taking place, and, therefore, all wagers on this match were cancelled. However, the UFC has now re-instated the fight and therefore all wagers on this fight have been reinstated, accordingly.
If you wish to cancel your wager(s), please reply to this email before 3:00 p.m. Pacific time on June 6th.
Best regards
Customer Service Department / Pinnacle,
[email protected]
 
Tony looked in phenomenal shape at weigh ins. Is Magny in trouble?
anthony-rocco-martin-poses-on-the-scale-during-the-ufc-250-weighin-at-picture-id1246377653

neil-magny-anthony-rocco-martin-ufc-250-official-weigh-ins.jpg

Is it gonna make him throw more strikes? If the theory is that his inactivity partly is due to him not being in shape and now he is...could make a difference I guess?

Magny is really smart, knows what he wants to do and always makes an effort to apply his game plan. When he loses it's because the other guy is just plain noticeably better. Is Rocco? Magny won't make mistakes and beat himself and you won't outwork him. You have to beat him up and put him away like Ponz or RDA did.

Not sure I trust Rocco to be that guy.
 
So...now they're back to early prelims on Fight Pass and not ESPN+?

Pick a platform and have some consistency!

Glad I looked. I'd have been fumbling around the ESPN+ app later today wondering where the damn fights were.
 
Anyone feeling these submisson overs:

1.5 -260
2.5 +135
3.5 +425
4.5 +1335


Looking at hooper, formiga, byrd, burns, Kelliher, GM3,


Plus nunes, aljo and assuncao might snatch something
 
Anyone feeling these submisson overs:

1.5 -260
2.5 +135
3.5 +425
4.5 +1335


Looking at hooper, formiga, byrd, burns, Kelliher, GM3,


Plus nunes, aljo and assuncao might snatch something

Over 2.5 subs has some value I think, I wouldn't play any of the higher ones. What book offers that?
 
Over 4.5 or 3.5 are just not gonna happen. And over 2.5 @ +135 (2.35) is not enough for this, still risky bet, IMO. I think 1, maximum 2 fights will end via sub on this card. Too much well matched fights. Subs doesn't happen that often, unless one guy is totally overmatched on the ground or gets very tired/beaten up. I can see finishes on the ground, but by GnP.

Under 1.5 fights end in sub is @ +220? Maybe some sprinkle on that?
No fights end in sub +1030?
 
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Hooper's sloppy entries make me nervous, but I literally cannot think of a situation where a guy will benefit more from the small cage.
 
Didn't realise this card was tonight, nice.

Sandhagen Vs Aljo is a hell of a fight. It's essentially Sandhagen's more diverse striking and volume versus Aljo's body/leg kicks and grappling. Sandhagen probably wins via volume on the feet but if Aljo employs a grapple heavy approach I could see him controlling Sandhagen enough to pick up a decision.

I've doubted Sandhagen enough though and he looked great against Assuncao and probably not just because Raphael has gotten old and is declining.

No real strong feelings on winner here but over 2.5 or FGTD seems the safest play. Should be a fantastic match up though and realistically should be co main as it's a number 1 contender fight in my eyes.

O'Malley very likely picks up a win against Wineland and I wouldn't be shocked if it's by R1 KO but at the same time, he's such a favourite you can't play him straight up and Wineland despite being a vet and starting to get old for the division he's able to take a shot, he's not got a glass jaw or anything. I'll look to either play the o1.5 or O'Malley Dec at 3.50 or so.

I like Ian Heinisch to outhustle GM and probably pick up a decision and it's a near pick em.

Tony Martin Vs Magny is interesting. The move up to WW has definitely helped Martin - he used to be a solid grappler but slowed down enormously in the second half of the fight. The move up has seen him solve his gas tank issues but weirdly also move away from his grappling and out together a striking game revolving around calf kicks and jabs/straights at a fairly high output (even if he doesn't land he throws). Neither him or Many have much in the way of 1 punch power - Magny is similar in terms of a high volume striker, probably better in fact. Both are able to take a shot too. I think Magny probably edges a decision, but will be close. I'll look at the over/FGTD lines just because I do rubbish betting decision lines of late.
 
Didn't realise this card was tonight, nice.

Sandhagen Vs Aljo is a hell of a fight. It's essentially Sandhagen's more diverse striking and volume versus Aljo's body/leg kicks and grappling. Sandhagen probably wins via volume on the feet but if Aljo employs a grapple heavy approach I could see him controlling Sandhagen enough to pick up a decision.

I've doubted Sandhagen enough though and he looked great against Assuncao and probably not just because Raphael has gotten old and is declining.

No real strong feelings on winner here but over 2.5 or FGTD seems the safest play. Should be a fantastic match up though and realistically should be co main as it's a number 1 contender fight in my eyes.

O'Malley very likely picks up a win against Wineland and I wouldn't be shocked if it's by R1 KO but at the same time, he's such a favourite you can't play him straight up and Wineland despite being a vet and starting to get old for the division he's able to take a shot, he's not got a glass jaw or anything. I'll look to either play the o1.5 or O'Malley Dec at 3.50 or so.

I like Ian Heinisch to outhustle GM and probably pick up a decision and it's a near pick em.

Tony Martin Vs Magny is interesting. The move up to WW has definitely helped Martin - he used to be a solid grappler but slowed down enormously in the second half of the fight. The move up has seen him solve his gas tank issues but weirdly also move away from his grappling and out together a striking game revolving around calf kicks and jabs/straights at a fairly high output (even if he doesn't land he throws). Neither him or Many have much in the way of 1 punch power - Magny is similar in terms of a high volume striker, probably better in fact. Both are able to take a shot too. I think Magny probably edges a decision, but will be close. I'll look at the over/FGTD lines just because I do rubbish betting decision lines of late.
The cage is tiny bro and the bookies haven’t really took this into account. I avoid over bets or FGTD bets in general but especially right now they should be avoided
 
The cage is tiny bro and the bookies haven’t really took this into account. I avoid over bets or FGTD bets in general but especially right now they should be avoided

True but in all honesty I think those fights I was looking at are high activity fights regardless. Smaller cage will for sure create more opportunities for finishes in general but I was expecting them to be engaged the vast majority of the time anyway - I think smaller cage will see a lot more clinchwork against the fence for example as it's easier to back people up, somewhere that Id expect to see Heinisch and GM to find themselves regardless of cage size. Similarly I don't think cage size matters too much in fights that will be grapple heavy, I think the main times it comes it will come into play is in stand up so if there are fights I expect to play out mostly on the feet I'll be more wary of it for sure, doubly so if you throw in known KO power or chinny fighters - in that regard it only gives me some concern over the O'Malley fight really.
 
Over 4.5 or 3.5 are just not gonna happen. And over 2.5 @ +135 (2.35) is not enough for this, still risky bet, IMO. I think 1, maximum 2 fights will end via sub on this card. Too much well matched fights. Subs doesn't happen that often, unless one guy is totally overmatched on the ground or gets very tired/beaten up. I can see finishes on the ground, but by GnP.

Under 1.5 fights end in sub is @ +220? Maybe some sprinkle on that?
No fights end in sub +1030?

4 of 11 fights ended in sub literally last week
 
4 of 11 fights ended in sub literally last week

There is literally one fight on this card where I'd be asbolutely stunned if it ended with a sub (O'malley/Wineland). There are others that would be somewhat of a surprise, but not shocking.

Add in the smaller cage, and if there was ever a card to take a stab at overs on sub props this would seem to be it.
 
There is literally one fight on this card where I'd be asbolutely stunned if it ended with a sub (O'malley/Wineland). There are others that would be somewhat of a surprise, but not shocking.

Add in the smaller cage, and if there was ever a card to take a stab at overs on sub props this would seem to be it.

the first fuckin fight will probably end in a sub lmao
 
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