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UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (7/11)

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Kamais_Ookin, Jun 12, 2020.

  1. Captain Crunch28 Green Belt

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    You guys are underestimating Davey grant smh acting like he ain’t there to win. He beat chito and chito way better than day will ever be.

    I see odds opened at evens but the public betting day so grant a average of +135 . Sign me up

    U think Davey grant just wants 1/2 of his paycheck.. it’s gon come down to who ever is meaner
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2020
  2. Captain Crunch28 Green Belt

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    While undefeated in the UFC, Santos is a full 40 years old now. Put that together with an undefeated 10-0 making his ufc debut. Undefeated guy the underdog and he’s my pick
     
  3. Captain Crunch28 Green Belt

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    Nobody should ever lay -200 on a hollaway opponent I mean he’s 1 of the 2 goats of the division! (I’d lay -200 If he fought Conor or Khabib tho)... volk edged every round the first fight, max didn’t have his edge and trying to really win it, atleast in the first half bc he tried picking it up in the later stages.

    Max is a smart fighter so I think he will use his size to his advantage and have a faster start to the fight. He has good cardio and no doh f he prolly worked a lot on it in quarantine.

    Max ML all day
     
    Conor_Is_Overrated likes this.
  4. thotboy Yellow Belt

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    Great minds think alike <seedat>
     
  5. carolinagrapple Yellow Belt

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    Thank you gentlemen for keeping this the most on topic thread I can remember. Very little nonsense...I solute you!
     
    2bet, rille31 and Tirimasuperman like this.
  6. carolinagrapple Yellow Belt

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    I'm not a big dog but I usually wager about 500 to 1000 per event. I mostly play straight lines and two leg parlays. However the degen in my always throws about $50 bucks spread on two legs insane prop parlays that i can make a mortgage payment on. I hit one last event for $10 for $2400 return (posted pic) and I hit about 4-5 per year. Here's what I am round robbing for this event:

    1) oezdemir wins by sub +1700
    2) tybura wins by sub +1450
    3) rose/andrade draw +6000
    4) holloway in rds 4 and 5 +3150 and +3700
    5) pvz inside +1150 (least likley)

    These $5 to $10 flyers hit for anywhere from $1000 to $ 18,000..
     
    thotboy likes this.
  7. piglord Black Belt

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    to bet bogatov you are basically counting on santos being completely over the hill. it's possible, but also possible he's absolutely fine like trinaldo or glover.
     
  8. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    I know but in your previous post you indicated you might switch because you didnt feel good about max and was going to just hedge w volk
     
    HockeyBjj likes this.
  9. Big Boned Rat White Belt

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    I'm gonna live bet anyways

    Unless I see something people arent seeing

    But obviously we all know what max and volk are capable of, they literally just fought
     
  10. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    Sounds like wikicapping here
     
  11. NewLockGuy Yellow Belt

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    Love me some long shot parlays and have hit several before, so for 251 I'll be playing Ribas/Salikhov/Yan/Leonardo Santos all ITD. 32 dollars and change to return almost 700 dollars.

    Only really concerned about Salikhov being out pointed by the slippery Dos Santos, as Salikhov really does seem to take his foot off the gas after 2. I still think he has the power and durability to duplicate what we recently saw The Leech do though. As talented as Dos Santos is I would call his durability only average. People don't mention it much but Griffin rattled Dos Santos pretty good. Salikhov might not be the most well rounded fighter in the UFC but that right hand is nuclear.

    Anyone have any thoughts/input?
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2020
  12. rille31 Brown Belt

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    Whats your opinion on units?
     
  13. HockeyBjj Putting on the foil

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    Ah that makes sense now. Thanks
     
  14. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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    absolute insanity that people do this.
    I remember having a 6 or 7 leg parlay last year that ended with the pats ML at like -300 against the titans (they of course lost) - I hedged because I’m a pussy but more importantly I learned a lesson. Never put that much juice into a parlay-
     
    mkess101 and Tirimasuperman like this.
  15. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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    Sorry to go off topic but how did EASY MONEY!!!!!!! get banned ?
     
    Sauna likes this.
  16. TheFightGame Banned Banned

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    Aldo vs Yan o 2 1/2 rounds - 200
    $180 to win $90

    Feeling pretty good about this bet, plan to drop $200 so I am deciding if I want my last 20 to go on a Yan decision prop or finish prop
     
  17. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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    PVZ has a clear path to victory - -800 is absurd
    She’s not gonna lock in a sub or knock Ribas out but she could hold her against the cage. Chick looks super strong. PVZ by decision at these odds worth a sprinkle.

    If you like Masvidal your natural inclination is TKO but there’s not much of a chance he finishes Usman. 10:1 for a fan friendly fighter to land the harder blows and out strike for 2 or 3 rounds and get a questionable decision victory? Sign me up

    Rose has some of the most absurd submissions in the game. +500 was where I got it I think it’s been bet down a bit but I have her clowning Andrade. She made two big mistakes in their last fight. Obviously she got her brain smashed in being the first but the second was not capitalizing on the knockdown in the first round. She made a really bad half hearted attempt to follow her to the ground when she could have just taken mount and locked up one of the 6 thousand subs she has in her arsenal.

    Follow me on the degen train boys this parlay pays out 230:1
     
  18. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    I think Pvz dec is the least likely outcome here. She’s not going to just hold ribas against the cage for two rounds. Ribas is better than her literally everywhere.

    Ribas was out grappling dern and Randa Markos, both girls who are both technically
    better and stronger than Paige.

    Paige is not a natural 125er, there’s only two reasons why she’s fighting in that division now.

    She was getting manhandled by Rachel ostovich grappling. She’s fortunate ostovich is clueless in armbar defense or else she would’ve gotten dominated for three rounds.

    As for Andrade/rose, Andrade is probably going to look to grapple. Rose could not stop her takedowns. And I wouldn’t be so confident that rose will be able to sub Andrade from guard
     
  19. Sono07 Brown Belt

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  20. Dooze Purple Belt

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    Andrade Dec @ 5.0 - had a bite on this, I think Andrade comes out looking to grapple and Rose probably can't stop the takedowns consistently, may even accept being on her back confident in her guard which could rack up control time for Andrade - I think it's feasible for 2 rounds - personally think that fight ends up a split decision.

    Aldo Dec @ 6.5 - very tempting, obviously would be moreso if it was 3 rounds but I don't think Aldo is as shot as people think. He's not the Aldo of old but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Yan finishes him - Aldo hasn't really shown a glass chin and he seemed fine with 135 last fight, he won the second round and arguably won the 3rd.

    Yan has been to a decision a fair few times himself, he can push a pace but it's also his first 5 rounder in the UFC - can he push the same pace or will he be more conservative early to save himself for the 4th/5th? Also a big step up in competition compared to Yans previous opponents. I think it could definitely be the case that Yan fights more warily given Aldo has some slick hands and is a fantastic counterstriker.

    Aldo may be able to finish Yan and similar for Yan, but both are tough and I think this tends to go deeper than many think - if it does that's going to be due to it being a measured striking affair and I certainly think Aldo could keep it competitive there and pick up rounds. For me Yan probably wins a decision but at these odds I might have a flier on Aldo Dec.

    Holloway Dec @ 5.00 - I think this likely goes to a decision. Both are insanely tough and it likely goes to a decision more often than not. I think both will have learnt a lot from their previous fight and I'm expecting another really good technical brawl. I think Max starts faster this time and can win a couple of rounds, I expect it to be close so I'll ride with the big underdog odds if it does go to a decision.
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2020
    TheFightGame likes this.

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