UFC 254 - Khabib vs. Gaethje - Official Bets

GoatArtemLobov said:
4u Khabib -250
4u Ankalaev -286
3.5u Kenney -195
2u Cannonier -109
1u Jojua +290
0.5u Harris R1 +450

Hope this one saves this dreadful fall

Added: Ankalaev-Khabib parlay 2u at -125
Struve 0.5u

2nd edit : had to add 1u on Khabib at -260
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Khabib +2u
Ankalaev +1.4u
Kenney +1.8u
Cannonier -2u
Jojua -1u
Harris R1 -0.5u
Struve -0.5u
Ankalaev-Khabib +1.6u

=+2.8u
Not as good as I wished it to be, but feels good to get the + again
 
Last edited:
£150 justin +280 to win £420

£350 Whitaker +100 to win £350

£75 Harris Rd 1 +450 to win £337.5

£75 Cutelaba Rd 1 +700 to win £525

£300 Wood +150 to win £450

£100 Jung decision +400 to win £400

£100 Maverik sub +175 to win £175
...........................
Net profit: -£450
 
DonQ94 said:
Wood €25 @ 2.60
Cowboy Oliveira €30 @ 2.15
Struve by Submission €15 @ 3.65
Shakirova €15 @ 2.95
Gaethje by KO €10 @ 5.0
Khabib by Sub in Rd 3 or 4 €10 @ 6.0
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Awful betting night lol, no dogs were barking tonight. I recouped the loss somewhat by chasing with Volkov and Whittaker, but yeah. Feel like I forced some action, because it was a 'big' event. Good lesson for the future.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Nice to finally be able to bet this weekend, as last week BetOnline was still down. (Betting Andrade hard at small minus numbers against Chookagian was also going to be my big play, ugh)

Anywho, no-bets on Volkov-Harris, Murphy-Shakirova, and the confounding Cannonier-Whittaker fights, but moderate action on three others;

2.5u on Oliveira at +112
1u on Tuivasa round 1 at +400
2u on Maverick at -377
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Pre-fight action leaves me +2.03u for the night.

Was slow on the only two live-bet spots I liked, missing +325 Alvey after round 1 by a half-second (entered in 4u) and missing on Murphy -300 after round 1. For the sake of my sanity, the former was a push at least, or I would have been haunted for weeks.

In terms of pre-fight action, I have no regrets about playing the Brazilian Cowboy at plus numbers. He actually looked sharp and focused, it's just that Rakhmonov looked monstrously better in the 16 months since his last M-1 fight, AND hit a guillotine from the clinch, which isn't exactly the most high-percentage move in 2020 no matter how tight one's squeeze is.

In retrospect, I should have been bolder and hit Maverick for more on the ML. Jojua is pathetically awful and doesn't improve a lick between her fights, and one should fade her with a solid fighter like Maverick every time.

Don't mind my pre-fight passes, either. Whittaker won but it took his best fight yet and was still close, Volkov looked great but that was hard to predict coming in so heavy, and Murphy at -300 after seeing round 1 was infinitely better than pre-betting her at -200.

A modest winning night, but it's nice to get back to gambling after BetOnline was down last week. Very excited about Bellator and the UFC next week.
 
xhaydenx said:
Thanks, but I didn't hit it in the end lol.

I had Kenney, Maverick and Murphy on a slip and was going to drop 3k on it at the start of the week like I used to.

Talked myself out of Miranda by convincing myself that Jojua had a good chance of getting a hail mary armbar. I just way over-analyzed both girls for no reason.

Was big on Kenney, but talked myself out of that when I saw some other betters drop on Wood instead.

In the end all I had was Murphy, which was probably the easiest pick I've ever come across lol.

1200 up for the day, but it should have been closer to 3k if I hadn't been such a wuss haha.
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Surprised you get swayed so easily by others I took you as more experienced than that with how much you bet all the time.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
Surprised you get swayed so easily by others I took you as more experienced than that with how much you bet all the time.
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I'm a bum these days, mate. Nowadays, I put together multis, talk myself out of them, and then my mates win them instead lol.

I need to stop looking at everyone else's picks. I didn't do that for my first year at all and I had way more confidence and made way more cash.
 
Krieg the Psycho said:
Malkoun 0.5u +225

Struve SUB 0.4u +300 loss

Wood DEC 0.4u +375 loss

Rakhmonov 1u +115 win

Yakovlev DEC 0.4u +385 loss

I will add at least Gaethje.
Click to expand...
Added
0.1u Jojua sub +1000 / 0.15u Maverick TKO +450 loss/win
0.75u Wood +215 (live after rd1) loss
0.25u Shakirova dec / 1u Murphy -333 (live after rd1) loss/win
0.25u Jung/Alvey ITD +450 (live after rd1) loss
0.3u Harris RD1 +450 loss
0.45u Reaper DEC +225 win
0.5u Gaethje +283 loss
0.4u Khabib rd3-rd5 loss (different odds, doesn't matter now)
0.4u Khabib SUB +160 (live after RD1) win

Started to favor Khabib (even more, would have obviously chosen him at evens) after I learned he didn't actually make weight. Not the first time UFC lies about fighters' weights, either. And they get away with it, too, because nobody wants to end up on their shit list. Anyway, I thought Justin would last at least two rounds, but I guess not. His gas tank was empty after one round, was it the heat or what? I get that he's not a cardio machine but that was unusually bad even for him. And yeah, I should have gone way heavier on the SUB bet live, it was only a matter of time.

Also added two doubles that are both still alive.
Volkov + Hernandez 1u +120
Struve/Tuivasa u2.5 + Mitchell 1u +156

But for now that was around -0.5u. So better than last week! Great success.
 
xhaydenx said:
I'm a bum these days, mate. Nowadays, I put together multis, talk myself out of them, and then my mates win them instead lol.

I need to stop looking at everyone else's picks. I didn't do that for my first year at all and I had way more confidence and made way more cash.
Click to expand...
Greed. Sometimes it's good to be shrewd. I scaled back my bets and hedged. Up about 4 units. Not bad not great but a win nonetheless. Meanwhile someone I know had a 7 pound bet and won a 1 thousand.it is what it is.
 
Sadistics said:
Gaethje +296 $1000

Whittaker +102 $1000
Whittaker +3.5 -110 $550

Harris +195 $400

Malkoun/Hawes O1.5 -120 $1200

Shakirova DEC +466 $300

Ankalaev/Cutelaba O1.5 -113 $1000

Struve +105 $400
Struve SUB +300 $250
Struve/Tuivasa U2.5 -182 $500

Wood +156 $1700
Wood +3.5 -155 $500
Wood DEC +345 $250

Oliveira +105 $500
Oliveira KO +500 $200

Jung/Alvey O1.5 -112 $1500
Jung DEC +400 $400

Maverick -281 $3400
Maverick SUB +170 $250
Maverick/Jojua u2.5 -110 $650

Yakovlev +297 $1500
Yakovlev DEC +350 $250
Alvarez NSC -210 $525

A looooot of plays, scary as I often bomb PPVs. Arbed some plays to get the lines I got such as Yakovlev who I may further reduce to 1250.
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-$4338. There's gotta be something to PPVs, nearly all my losses come from them, though this week was just sloppy with some bad betting habits resurfacing. Not a single dog hit unless you count Whittaker, can't remember the last time that's happened.
 
Sadistics said:
-$4338. There's gotta be something to PPVs, nearly all my losses come from them, though this week was just sloppy with some bad betting habits resurfacing. Not a single dog hit unless you count Whittaker, can't remember the last time that's happened.
Click to expand...


Still the goat. Next weekend you're gonna win us all money on Anderson.
 
Grow Hogan said:
Greed. Sometimes it's good to be shrewd. I scaled back my bets and hedged. Up about 4 units. Not bad not great but a win nonetheless. Meanwhile someone I know had a 7 pound bet and won a 1 thousand.it is what it is.
Click to expand...

Mate, it's the opposite of greed. It's like I'm happier to follow other's too much lately and make less. Like, I still win almost every weekend, but it's only like an average of around 700-800 a week and I'm risking around 3-4k per card.

I used to risk 2k per card on a 3 legger multi and win 4-5k instead. I need the greed back haha.
 
Sadistics said:
-$4338. There's gotta be something to PPVs, nearly all my losses come from them, though this week was just sloppy with some bad betting habits resurfacing. Not a single dog hit unless you count Whittaker, can't remember the last time that's happened.
Click to expand...
You mind elaborating on those bad habits? I feel like you always learn the most on losing nights like this.
 
Sadistics said:
-$4338. There's gotta be something to PPVs, nearly all my losses come from them, though this week was just sloppy with some bad betting habits resurfacing. Not a single dog hit unless you count Whittaker, can't remember the last time that's happened.
Click to expand...

Value players will always have bad nights when favorites essentially sweep.
 
HockeyBjj said:
$100 Khabib -250
$25 Whitt +104
$10 Oliviera -122
$15 Volkov/Whitt/Khabib/Oliviera +660
$10 Cutelaba 1st round +700
Click to expand...

Added a $50 Whittaker and Khabib Parlay +228, as well as a $50 Volkanovski and Kahabib parlay +110 when draft kings gave 50% profit boost this morning on ufc 254 pre bets.

good night for me. Also after Oliviera lost redid the parlay (I had two $15 free bets I was sitting on) to Tai, Whitt, Volkov, Khabib so won that as well.
 
DonQ94 said:
You mind elaborating on those bad habits? I feel like you always learn the most on losing nights like this.
Click to expand...

Yeah I agree, just look at it like tuition. It was mainly playing anything I viewed as having even marginal value, made worse by doing it in spots I didn't have a great read on or where big potential for improvements were present.

GoatArtemLobov said:
Is Sadistics on Anderson?
Didn't know about that, fuck, now I'm going to tape with bias.
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No I'm definitely not betting Anderson at 45 years old, all favs for me so far
 
AK-47 said:
Khabib v Justin Over 1.5/Whittaker/Harris £1000 @ +575 <- (changed this khabib ML to Over 1.5 for better odds)
Khabib v Gaethje Fight Ends Rd 4 £100 @ +800
Khabib v Gaethje Fight Ends Rd 5 £100 @ +1400
Khabib Finish/Harris Finish/Whittaker Decision £100 @ +1713
Gaethje Round 5 KO £200 @ +8000
Gaethje Round 4 KO £150 @ +5000
Cutelaba Rd 1 KO £100 @ +900
Khabib vs Gaethje Draw £50 @ +8000
(for fun) Justin RD5/Cannonier Rd 3/Volkov RD 3 £10 @ +662900

Might be all this week. Could add some more after weigh ins
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-£550. Not a good night for me. Cashed out the Cutelaba RD1 bet and put £1000 on Whittaker at +100. Had a few parlays that would have hit with the Khabib fight at over 1.5 should have just stuck with khabib ITD my original Play. Gutted he finished him so quickly did not expect the fight to end in the 2nd. Even had a 10 leg parlay which all hit with all favourites and last minute changed Khabib ITD on that to over 1.5 messed that play up too. Onto the next...
 
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