UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez

2020Tracked said:
Why?
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I cant speak for anyone else but I think this is a much closer fight than what the odds say. I'm not sure Figueiredo is gonna be able to march Perez down. I think volume is going to be key here for Perez....
 
I can see the opportunities for Perez, like he has a good calf kick and Fig has been calf kicked before, it's never effected him in a fight or caused him any problems but he's definitely been hit with them.

And I have seen Perez use his wrestling and get takedownds and get some control but again recent Fig is a scrambling machine and throws up all kinds of sub attempts and rarely seems in any real danger in those positions and will definitely have the athletic and strength advantage in any grappling exchanges.

I think backing Perez is a punt, if the wrestling fails and he just gets stuffed or reversed then what? He's stuck on the outside with a calf kick at his disposal. He's not quick Perez, he doesn't have the power of Fig, and I don't think he can control the pace or direction of the fight either.

We'll probably see him stand on the out side early and look to find his range, fire a few calf kicks and then Fig will just explode with something crazy and nearly kill him. Perez will shit it, and start diving for a takedown and either get countered coming in or tangled up and choked out.

I really struggle to see it being a competitive fight. Take away the Formiga fight for each guy and this fight would be considered one of the biggest miss matches in a long time.

I like Formiga, he's a good fighter, but he's really old for fly weight and Perez got him when he'd been KO'ed by Joey B and dominated by Moreno, all hope of a title shot lost and then he goes out to calf kicks ‍♂️

I can see an argument that the Joey B wins for Fig aren't great either given where Joey B is in his career, but at that point Joey B had won three in a row including finishing Formiga and Perez. Not to MMA math but you have to consider level of opposition to a degree.

Fig gets the finish with in two and makes it look pretty easy is my guess
 
Listened to the MMAOddsbreaker podcast... Nick Kalikas on the favs other than Stoltzfus and Rua.
 
I hope people are not going too nuts on Means here. Yes red flags abound for Perry...but they did vs Gall too. And while Perry's striking maybe looked a bit sluggish, his grappling actually looked on point and his cardio held up fine.

Also some things to remember: Going into the Gall fight, Perry was coming off a KO loss to Neal, and prior to that and absolute WAR with Luque that mangled his face and that he probably should have taken way more time off from. He's now coming off a win where he took little to moderate damage.

The weight cut stuff looks bad on the surface and it might end up being bad, but maybe not. He tweeted that he was 177 when...Thursday during the day? And that he couldn't sweat anymore? If he only lost 2 more lbs, I don't think he tried very hard to cut at the end. So good chance he's not too sapped. Him coming in so heavy (and the pics of him eating pizza and stuff) MIGHT mean he f'd off during camp, etc. But he's still the kinda guy who's gonna go in and fight hard the entire time.

I'm not advocating a play on Perry AT ALL. I'm not even saying playing Means near evens is a horrible bet (and those who got him and + odds, great). I just don't think a massive play on Means now makes sense at all as a straight fade of Perry.
 
Seems like a lot of the thread on Jouban...can't say I'd be excited to pay juice on him here unless you really think Gooden is trash. Jouban is 37, has taken some damage over the years, and is now coming off about an 18 month layoff. Gooden has fought twice this year. Level of competition between the two is quite obviously vastly different but I still wouldn't want to have $ on Jouban as a favorite. MAYBE the layoff helps him and he comes in fresh and rejuvenated. Maybe. And if he was somehow the dog...oh yeah. But paying juice here...IDK...
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
I think Maia has a better chance of winning her fight than Perez does.
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What? How? At least Perez likely has the cardio edge so if he can survive early he can maybe get some things done later.

Maia not only has no advantages, she's pretty much at a MASSIVE disadvantage in every aspect of fighting. Barring Valentina slipping on a banana peel and KO'ing herself, I'm not sure how Maia wins. Hell, I'm not sure how she even makes it look remotely competitive.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
I think Maia has a better chance of winning her fight than Perez does.
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Seriously? you know i can see why some people are on Perez. I am not going to be repeating or posting it here i am sure you will probably figure if you go back a page or so from yesterday. Will Figueiredo win and keep been a champ? sure that's a narrative.

I really dont see how Maia wins this fight against Valentina Shevchenko.Shevchenko has the height and size in her advantage.
 
I'd have to agree with Mkess. Valentina would have to put out a career wide garbage performance to lose to Maia.
 
So...I'm taking Shogun. I think its more likely he can blanket Bear Jew again vs getting shillacked in round 1.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
So...I'm taking Shogun. I think its more likely he can blanket Bear Jew again vs getting shillacked in round 1.
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Im on shogun by decision x 4.33 and Craig KO x 7.5. One of them should hit. I dont think Craig is capable of winning decisions lol with how he fights.
 
Taking a shot on Brandon Royval by ITD. I dont think this fight goes to decision.
 
mkess101 said:
The weight cut stuff looks bad on the surface and it might end up being bad, but maybe not. He tweeted that he was 177 when...Thursday during the day? And that he couldn't sweat anymore? If he only lost 2 more lbs, I don't think he tried very hard to cut at the end. So good chance he's not too sapped. Him coming in so heavy (and the pics of him eating pizza and stuff) MIGHT mean he f'd off during camp, etc. But he's still the kinda guy who's gonna go in and fight hard the entire time.
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That tweet was Friday morning at a bit before 7am, so only a few hours before the weigh-ins.
It's hard to say if he botched his cut or he just doesn't care, I'm at a complete loss when it comes to trying to figure out what makes Perry tick.
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
Seriously? you know i can see why some people are on Perez. I am not going to be repeating or posting it here i am sure you will probably figure if you go back a page or so from yesterday. Will Figueiredo win and keep been a champ? sure that's a narrative.

I really dont see how Maia wins this fight against Valentina Shevchenko.Shevchenko has the height and size in her advantage.
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I do not think either are live dogs, but as I said if one of them were to get it done it would be Maia.

She is facing an opponent coming off of what was a devastating enough leg injury that it has taken her 9.5 months to defend her title. Valentina also to the best of my knowledge has not disclosed what the leg injury was other than it required surgery. So we will see if she is the same fighter, though I fully expect her to have a dominant victory, but the opening is there for Maia if she is not moving the same.
 
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