UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno

Invictis said:
Weird, 2 of the books I use have her KO line @ +700, +720 at the highest.

Irregardless, +750 on Jacare KO is rather enticing.
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Are you sure you don't mean Dern? I can see her at around those prices.

With Jacare I just went with the "safer" bet as a sub is his likeliest win condition. I kind of expect Holland to be the minute-winner until he does something stupid.

I also have Dern ML. For Jandiroba to win, she likely needs to hold top position for long enough in at least two rounds. I believe she can definitely get Dern down, but can she keep top position when she couldn't do that against Esparza? My money is on "no".
 
Krieg the Psycho said:
I also have Dern ML. For Jandiroba to win, she likely needs to hold top position for long enough in at least two rounds. I believe she can definitely get Dern down, but can she keep top position when she couldn't do that against Esparza? My money is on "no".
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I don't understand this comparison. Esparza doesn't have the jits of Dern, but she has much better wrestling and better, quicker scrambling. Which one is easier to maintain top position against is thus very much unclear.

I also don't know if you want to bank on the Esparza fight depending on the price you got for Dern. Jandiroba-Esparza was very close, with Esparza clearly winning round 1, Jandiroba taking a competitive round 2, and then Esparza edging out a competitive round 3. I remember making a modest live-bet on Esparza at like -130 after round 2, but it wasn't that confident.

A few things go a little differently in the final stanza and Jandiroba would be the winner, instead.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
I don't understand this comparison. Esparza doesn't have the jits of Dern, but she has much better wrestling and better, quicker scrambling. Which one is easier to maintain top position against is thus very much unclear.

I also don't know if you want to bank on the Esparza fight depending on the price you got for Dern. Jandiroba-Esparza was very close, with Esparza clearly winning round 1, Jandiroba taking a competitive round 2, and then Esparza edging out a competitive round 3. I remember making a modest live-bet on Esparza at like -130 after round 2, but it wasn't that confident.

A few things go a little differently in the final stanza and Jandiroba would be the winner, instead.
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Much better wrestling, yes. That's why Esparza usually ended up on top against Virna. Things will be different here so I'm specifically talking about maintaining top position once you get it i.e. how good Dern is off her back. I am banking on Dern to be able to reverse the position, we shall see soon enough if that's the case. I am admittedly very high on Dern's abilities and expect her to stay on top if she gets there. I got her at -177 (2 units), that's where it opened for me.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
I don't understand this comparison. Esparza doesn't have the jits of Dern, but she has much better wrestling and better, quicker scrambling. Which one is easier to maintain top position against is thus very much unclear.

I also don't know if you want to bank on the Esparza fight depending on the price you got for Dern. Jandiroba-Esparza was very close, with Esparza clearly winning round 1, Jandiroba taking a competitive round 2, and then Esparza edging out a competitive round 3. I remember making a modest live-bet on Esparza at like -130 after round 2, but it wasn't that confident.

A few things go a little differently in the final stanza and Jandiroba would be the winner, instead.
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Judging may be interesting too if Virna gets top position but is doing nothing but defending Dern's attacks from there.
 
Anyone watch enough tape to see how good Fiziev's takedown defense is? I think Moicano is gonna have to manhandle him Khabib style to win this fight.
 
Is there a possibility dern/ jandiroba ends in a draw?
 
svmr_db said:
Anyone watch enough tape to see how good Fiziev's takedown defense is? I think Moicano is gonna have to manhandle him Khabib style to win this fight.
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Can't tell you about how good Fiziev's TDD is exactly, but Moicano can sub him if he gets Fiz down or puts him in a compromising grappling exchange. No doubt about that in my mind. Fiziev is the much stronger guy and I would assume he was drilling TDD more than usual as he probably thinks his only way to lose is getting submitted or grapplefucked.
 
Kazda1 said:
Is there a possibility dern/ jandiroba ends in a draw?
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Just as likely as any other MMA fight, there's a reason odds for draw usually ranged from like +5000 to +8000, very rare in MMA, feels like you only see them once every 50 to 100 fights.
 
What would you guys do with these prop bets?
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svmr_db said:
Just as likely as any other MMA fight, there's a reason odds for draw usually ranged from like +5000 to +8000, very rare in MMA, feels like you only see them once every 50 to 100 fights.
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Agreed. I think the only time I'd bet a draw would be in play after a 10-8 first round or there's been a point deduction and there's justification for the draw.

I think pre fight draw bets are just throwing money away given nobody is handing out 10-10 rounds, close rounds will see a potential split decision rather than a draw. They can be good bets, but only in live play for me.

Used to be able to bet Split or Unanimous Decisions on one or two sites here in the UK which I loved and won several times with at inflated odds but that was back in 2012 or so (won on a couple of Mike Pierce fights with this)

SD bets would be fantastic now especially given the state of judging and how close a lot of fights are, especially with the introduction of women's fights in the UFC. I think there would definitely be profit to made there if anyone's bookie offered lines where you could specify the type of decision
 
Man, looking at Tony vs Do Bronx...Charles is REALLY gonna have to go through some hell if he's gonna win most likely (barring him somehow snagging Tony's neck really early and getting a sub fully locked in). Everyone remembers Tony just getting the brakes beat off him by Justin, but I did not realize that Tony himself landed 136 sig strikes in that fight. Given how lopsided we all know that fight was, that activity level is actually pretty insane for a guy who lost that convincingly.

Trajectory-wise, age and mileage-wise, etc Charles is in the right spot here. But man, I just don't know if he can't handle Tony's crazy pace and activity.
 
Dooze said:
Agreed. I think the only time I'd bet a draw would be in play after a 10-8 first round or there's been a point deduction and there's justification for the draw.

I think pre fight draw bets are just throwing money away given nobody is handing out 10-10 rounds, close rounds will see a potential split decision rather than a draw. They can be good bets, but only in live play for me.

Used to be able to bet Split or Unanimous Decisions on one or two sites here in the UK which I loved and won several times with at inflated odds but that was back in 2012 or so (won on a couple of Mike Pierce fights with this)

SD bets would be fantastic now especially given the state of judging and how close a lot of fights are, especially with the introduction of women's fights in the UFC. I think there would definitely be profit to made there if anyone's bookie offered lines where you could specify the type of decision
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The only time a pre fight draw bet MAYBE makes a little sense is when you have someone who starts fast but fades AND is a pretty big favorite on the ML. The reason being, you are hoping they dominate rd 1 to where at least 2 judges give them a 10-8. Then you hope they drop the next 2 because they gassed themself out trying to finish. And the ML matters, because it influences what they set the draw line at. Close ML's tend to have the draw at +5500 or so, whereas a fighter who's -300 is gonna have the draw line at +7000 or better a lot of the time.

So you'll see: Fighter x ML -300, fighter x rd 1 prop -125, draw +7500. But IF fighter x can't finish in rd 1, they can gas and drop the next 2.

Even then it's a reach, but at least there's SOME logic in playing it.
 
One fight I'm finding very tricky to predict is Cyril Gane vs JDS. I'm expecting Gane to win but does he finish JDS or does it go the distance?
 
thehighking said:
One fight I'm finding very tricky to predict is Cyril Gane vs JDS. I'm expecting Gane to win but does he finish JDS or does it go the distance?
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Could go either way. I would say personally I'd cap it that assuming Gane wins it's 60% finish and 40% dec.

Gane itd is -140 and dec +225 or so...value is on dec I guess imo.
 
Ballsaque said:
Do you get new limits if you make an account there, and is it located in Europe?
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I joined them about 2 months ago when dimes closed to US customers. Could not be happier. Deposited about $500 and already taken two $1k withdraws. No limits or any complaints yet. The live betting is tougher for some reason but I give them props for a bitcoin withdraw in less then 24 hours. I would recommend for sure. The only thing that annoys me is that when you are on your phone, if you get logged out, you have to back to the bookmark. The link becomes invalid or something. Could just be my chrome mobile browser
 
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