UFC 257: McGregor vs. Poirier 2

Added this. Should've donated to a dog shelter.

I think both of the favorites win, but the odds are WAY too far off.

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Wiktoruspro said:
Numbers dont fight
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When the implied probability of a fighter winning is much higher than the betting odds indicate, it's a +EV play over time.

You know more about losing bets than winning, though.

Even if I lose these 2 bets, which the odds indicate I will, it doesn't scratch my bankroll.

Could've saved a dog's life though, right?
 
Invictis said:
When the implied probability of a fighter winning is much higher than the betting odds indicate, it's a +EV play over time.

You know more about losing bets than winning, though.

Even if I lose these 2 bets, which the odds indicate I will, it doesn't scratch my bankroll.

Could've saved a dog's life though, right?
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@Sadistics I’m new to betting and posting this year, but following you into bets has made my 2020, just wanna say thanks man. Following your lead. Cheers!
 
I'm here just to say that I was 90% sure Conor was going to win.
I am shocked, shocked! Maybe I am dumb to think he had this in the bag, but this is what I thought at the time.

Everybody who got money on Dustin is a fucking gangsta.
 
rille31 said:
who da fuc was crewman again, rings a bell
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He had pretty solid trolling levels. His famous thing was where he said his betting strategy is using his imagination. People would talk about watching tape, looking at previous fights, using stats, etc. and he would mock them saying you have to just use your imagination. There was a bunch of other shit. I'm pretty sure he was just a master at subtle trolling, but most thought he was serious.
 
Conor did much better than i thought. Dustin coulda have been starched in rd1. But he wanted to end it too quickly. He didnt care about his legs..dustin had a horrible start today but he got in to the groove 2nd rd around 10seconds in.
 
Rewatched the fight twice. Poirier didn’t look that good tbh, but stayed very composed when Conor was tagging him throughout the two rounds.

Appears to me that gameplan was to avoid rushing in, stay in range, do damage with legkicks and allow openings to present themself - basically pacing.

The finish almost looked comically easy, Dustin just said fuck it, I’m switching gears, and melted ol Conor in a flash.

Rip The Notorious
 
MidgardSerpent said:
Oh wow,
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PuertoRican said:
I'm sure
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Oblivian said:
I know these guys voluntarily left, but does anyone still talk to EZFlyer or WannaBet?
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BluntTrauma21 said:
Yeah I miss EZ. Haven't talked to him in years. Same w/ Goodfella. Somebody tell em I said hi if you see them for me..
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I just wanted to participate in the nostalgia circle jerk real quick. Can't believe Crewman and Wannabet with the gimp mask got brought up. Really hilarious stuff - WB was a dentist if i don't remember wrong?

Barry is back.. hopefully, I can finally get profitable again tailing this absolute alpha. Happy days!

I still occasionally talk to Goodfellas and I'm steam friends with Ez, though long time since I talked to him though, happy to hear he's still betting. Too bad he left the thread, he's a sweetheart.
 
Ballsaque said:
I just wanted to participate in the nostalgia circle jerk real quick. Can't believe Crewman and Wannabet with the gimp mask got brought up. Really hilarious stuff - WB was a dentist if i don't remember wrong?

Barry is back.. hopefully, I can finally get profitable again tailing this absolute alpha. Happy days!

I still occasionally talk to Goodfellas and I'm steam friends with Ez, though long time since I talked to him though, happy to hear he's still betting. Too bad he left the thread, he's a sweetheart.
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Yeah man the old days are fun to reminisce about. A lot of guys aren't around anymore but to those of us who remember when @Oblivian was making threads for each card back in the heavies and random idiots would come in and complain about how much he bet or criticize who/what he was betting on. They would complain about him using roi or whatever. A buncha nerds I tell ya. Now we have our own forum or subforum, whatever but it was way different and kind of more fun back when we used to have no home, so to speak.

Oblivian really started this shit and there was only a handful of us at the beginning. Now that I think of it I probably wasn't even part of the first group of regs. But I remember you and @EndlessCritic who may or may not have been under a different name back then. EZ and guys like Goodfella and WannaBet etc. Goodfella is a legend but I think he got ran off a few years ago or some shit.

WB was apparently a Dr. but I always thought he was a bit younger than he let on. I figured he was in med school or something but I have no idea. The gimp mask vids were funny af man. He was a good dude, he would beef w/ Luca Fury and that shit was hilarious. Luca got fucking eviscerated on here back in the day too, I think they really buried him in the ot one time, they flamed the shit outta him down there lol.

WB also won a betting contest and was on the mma hour w/ Ariel, he made us proud for repping the threads. That was pretty dope.

@MidgardSerpent good to see you posting the other day. @Arellione (sp?), can't remember his exact name, that dude was an og too. So many names I can't remember them all. @mkess101 is one of the mensch's I always enjoyed talking betting and shooting random shit w/ as well as yourself.

Shout out to @barrygood1 he's still hanging around which is fun b/c I remember when he first came on he wasn't a troll at all, he was fully degening out the first time he came around. I still remember I told him to buy a bullet and rent a gun b/c I stole that line from a movie. Seemed like Ole Barry was contemplating throwing himself off a bridge but he came back and made himself the notorious Barry the Cooler troll we all know and love to hate. Legendary character.

@Oblivian do you remember the very first regs you had in your threads? I feel like I was far from the first wave but I still was here relatively early compared to most.

So many names escape me now tho, shit was a blur. Really fun tho. Hope all you Old Heads are doing well. I spent a good chunk of my 20's drunk posting on here and betting like a savage. We had a lot of good times. NEVER FORGET haha.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Yeah man the old days are fun to reminisce about. A lot of guys aren't around anymore but to those of us who remember when @Oblivian was making threads for each card back in the heavies and random idiots would come in and complain about how much he bet or criticize who/what he was betting on. They would complain about him using roi or whatever. A buncha nerds I tell ya. Now we have our own forum or subforum, whatever but it was way different and kind of more fun back when we used to have no home, so to speak.

Oblivian really started this shit and there was only a handful of us at the beginning. Now that I think of it I probably wasn't even part of the first group of regs. But I remember you and @EndlessCritic who may or may not have been under a different name back then. EZ and guys like Goodfella and WannaBet etc. Goodfella is a legend but I think he got ran off a few years ago or some shit.

WB was apparently a Dr. but I always thought he was a bit younger than he let on. I figured he was in med school or something but I have no idea. The gimp mask vids were funny af man. He was a good dude, he would beef w/ Luca Fury and that shit was hilarious. Luca got fucking eviscerated on here back in the day too, I think they really buried him in the ot one time, they flamed the shit outta him down there lol.

WB also won a betting contest and was on the mma hour w/ Ariel, he made us proud for repping the threads. That was pretty dope.

@MidgardSerpent good to see you posting the other day. @Arellione (sp?), can't remember his exact name, that dude was an og too. So many names I can't remember them all. @mkess101 is one of the mensch's I always enjoyed talking betting and shooting random shit w/ as well as yourself.

Shout out to @barrygood1 he's still hanging around which is fun b/c I remember when he first came on he wasn't a troll at all, he was fully degening out the first time he came around. I still remember I told him to buy a bullet and rent a gun b/c I stole that line from a movie. Seemed like Ole Barry was contemplating throwing himself off a bridge but he came back and made himself the notorious Barry the Cooler troll we all know and love to hate. Legendary character.

@Oblivian do you remember the very first regs you had in your threads? I feel like I was far from the first wave but I still was here relatively early compared to most.

So many names escape me now tho, shit was a blur. Really fun tho. Hope all you Old Heads are doing well. I spent a good chunk of my 20's drunk posting on here and betting like a savage. We had a lot of good times. NEVER FORGET haha.
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Man, if I saw the names, I'd remember. I had some pretty depressing PMs from back in the day. Some people were clearly degenerate gamblers. One guy was betting $20k+ on single bets and it was clearly money he could not lose. I've seen a lot of people crash and burn over the years.
 
danareem said:
Rewatched the fight twice. Poirier didn’t look that good tbh, but stayed very composed when Conor was tagging him throughout the two rounds.

Appears to me that gameplan was to avoid rushing in, stay in range, do damage with legkicks and allow openings to present themself - basically pacing.

The finish almost looked comically easy, Dustin just said fuck it, I’m switching gears, and melted ol Conor in a flash.

Rip The Notorious
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I may take some shit for this, but I honestly don't think Conor has a very good chin or recovery. Once Poirier caught him which then put Conor against the fence, he was pretty much done and just hanging on. We saw how Diaz rocked him in the first fight too, and honestly, I think if Diaz threw harder in the 2nd fight when he had him against the fence he could have finished. I just don't think Conor has good durability which doesn't really bode well for him not managing energy well. He's just so potent early though.
 
Oblivian said:
I may take some shit for this, but I honestly don't think Conor has a very good chin or recovery. Once Poirier caught him which then put Conor against the fence, he was pretty much done and just hanging on. We saw how Diaz rocked him in the first fight too, and honestly, I think if Diaz threw harder in the 2nd fight when he had him against the fence he could have finished. I just don't think Conor has good durability which doesn't really bode well for him not managing energy well. He's just so potent early though.
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Agree w all that. I was big on Conor ITD -140 but I love him and can’t cap him objectively. He’s one of my favorite fighters only bc I think he’s been so so good for the sport. That matchup was as good as it gets for him at the top tier of LW. Kills me to say it but he’s probably done in terms of being relevant in championship discussion at any weight. Great run though. Rip McGoat.
 
Oblivian said:
I may take some shit for this, but I honestly don't think Conor has a very good chin or recovery. Once Poirier caught him which then put Conor against the fence, he was pretty much done and just hanging on. We saw how Diaz rocked him in the first fight too, and honestly, I think if Diaz threw harder in the 2nd fight when he had him against the fence he could have finished. I just don't think Conor has good durability which doesn't really bode well for him not managing energy well. He's just so potent early though.
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Personally, one reason that I put 3u on Poirier, which I haven't seen mentioned, is that I think Conor's speed and reactions looked very slightly worse against Khabib.

Not a big difference, and it wasn't going to matter against the vast majority of opponents, like Cowboy Cerrone, but against Dustin Poirier? It might well have been the difference between catching him in round 1 and winning via knockout (which he was close to!) and allowing him to survive before succumbing himself in round 2.

Two other reasons I bet on Poirier is from watching their first fight (not that impressive or definitive; McGregor hit Poirier in the back of the head from Poirier incorrectly ducking like a pure boxer in an otherwise even first round) and also McGregor-Diaz 2.
 
Thoughts on Poirier-Oliveira and Poirier Chandler?

Value in Chandler +170?
 
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rille31 said:
Thoughts on Poirier-Oliveira and Poirier Chandler?

Value in Chandler +170?
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If Chandler wins, it's going to be a KO. I have a hard time seeing him decision Poirier. Oliveira/Poirier is hard to call, but I think it ends ITD no matter what.
 
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