UFC 258: 2.13 11:59pm ET Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns

helax

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helax submitted a new Sportsbook Event:

UFC 258: 2.13 11:59pm ET Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Burns wins by TKO/KO : 800/100 (8.00)

Usman wins in round 1 : 600/100 (6.00)

Burns wins in round 1 : 1250/100 (12.50)

Usman wins by decision : 125/100 (1.25)

Burns wins by decision : 615/100 (6.15)

Usman wins inside distance : 200/100 (2.00)

Burns wins inside distance : 475/100 (4.75)

Usman wins by submission : 1800/100 (18.00)

Burns wins by submission : 770/100 (7.70)

Usman wins by TKO/KO : 260/100 (2.60)

Gilbert Burns : 246/100 (2.46)

Fight is a draw : 8000/100 (80.00)

Fight doesn't go to decision : 110/100 (1.10)

Under 3½ rounds : 141/100 (1.41)

Fight starts round 5 : 100/115 (0.87)

Fight starts round 4 : 100/140 (0.71)

Fight starts round 3 : 100/215 (0.47)

Fight goes to decision : 100/110 (0.91)

Over 3½ rounds : 100/182 (0.55)

Kamaru Usman : 100/222 (0.45)

Place your wagers here...
 
Usman by decision looking attractive

Usman by decision.

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agree!
 
@BFoe any plans for the event betting wise? I’m mixing a bunch of bets based on the fight lasting awhile and eventually going to a decision, and usman winning
 
@BFoe any plans for the event betting wise? I’m mixing a bunch of bets based on the fight lasting awhile and eventually going to a decision, and usman winning
I haven’t even looked at Sportsbook to look at all the prop bets and stuff. I’m thinking I’ll put a decent amount down on Simon again. He came through for me last time and is better than Kelleher I think. Some other guys seem like good bets—like Gastelum or Bobby Green—but how reliable are they really? I don’t feel that confident about a lot of fighters on this card.
 
I haven’t even looked at Sportsbook to look at all the prop bets and stuff. I’m thinking I’ll put a decent amount down on Simon again. He came through for me last time and is better than Kelleher I think. Some other guys seem like good bets—like Gastelum or Bobby Green—but how reliable are they really? I don’t feel that confident about a lot of fighters on this card.
The only thing that scares me about the kelleher fight is that the man has solid ko power
 
The only thing that scares me about the kelleher fight is that the man has solid ko power
Definitely, a lot of these dogs are really live. Kelleher is, Jim Miller is always dangerous, Heinisch could surprise Gastelum, Barber-Grasso is tough to pick (I’m picking Grasso). This is kind of a mess of a card that’s tough to pick and bet on. Who you thinking?
 
Definitely, a lot of these dogs are really live. Kelleher is, Jim Miller is always dangerous, Heinisch could surprise Gastelum, Barber-Grasso is tough to pick (I’m picking Grasso). This is kind of a mess of a card that’s tough to pick and bet on. Who you thinking?
The trick to this card is figuring out which mentally weak, yet talented fighter will come through. I think gas comes through, and Barber crumbles. I think Simon pulls it off. I picked Miller upset
 
The trick to this card is figuring out which mentally weak, yet talented fighter will come through. I think gas comes through, and Barber crumbles. I think Simon pulls it off. I picked Miller upset
<mma4>
Same here except I took Green over Miller. Marquez-Pitolo is another tough one to predict. I’ve got Marquez, and he’d pay ok at around -185, but again I’m not confident enough to risk a lot on it.
 
<mma4>
Same here except I took Green over Miller. Marquez-Pitolo is another tough one to predict. I’ve got Marquez, and he’d pay ok at around -185, but again I’m not confident enough to risk a lot on it.
I think pitolo is one of those guys that consistently sees bets on him for no apprentice reason and line tends to be inflated. Like Conor
 
I think pitolo is one of those guys that consistently sees bets on him for no apprentice reason and line tends to be inflated. Like Conor
Conor vs Pitolo would be a cracker! <45>
Yeah I feel about the same. He’s capable of beating certain guys, but he’s kind of got a low ceiling. But his opponent hasn’t fought in like 3 years, so who knows how it goes?
I think my bets and fight picks will be all over the place.
 
It’s the most likely outcome I think. But Burns could be a live dog too. I thought about picking him but couldn’t do it in the end.
Same. I rewatched Nelson vs burns and couldn’t do it
 
Damm these 2 men dont deserve to be headlinig this shitty fightcard and we dont deserve it to take place in a small cage.

That said this is still a very interesting fight on many levels.
You could litarelly make a very long ass breakdown.

Striking wise its going to be between 2 powershots.
The strong straight right from Usman vs the clean left hook of Burns
The speed advantage looks to be on Burns side but the advantage of the reach is for sure on Usmans side
So the powershot advantage is on Usmans side because the straight is more effective in mma especialy if you have the reach advantage
The speed could be a problem to Usman but probably only in the beginning.

And than we have the kicks of Burns vs the body punches of Usman.
I think this would have been a big problem for Usman if it was in a big cage.
But in a small cage its going to be very dificult for Burns to accumulate a lot of damage because he doesnt have the best footwork to stay of the fence
So I give the advantage to Usman because he will have more oppurtunity to accumulate damage with his body punches against the fence

But this whole card feels like its gonna be more about the mental state of the fighters and who can grapple/wrestle better in a small cage
This fight has to be a mindfuck for both fighters being ex team mates

I wont be suprised if Burns pulls of a submission especially a triangle choke/armbar.
Usmans whole game is based on not to give his back but the kryptonite for an american wrestler will be always there especially if the fight ends up on the ground away from the fence.

At the end it feels like the fight is gonna take place mostly against the fence so I am going with Usman by decision
 

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