UFC 258: Usman vs Burns

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-258-usman-vs-burns-2033

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_258

https://www.sherdog.com/events/UFC-258-Usman-vs-Burns-87797

 

I wonder if Maverick can stuff Robertsons takedowns

 

Heinisch @ + money definitely has value. With all my respect for MMA fighters, Kelvin is a lazy fuck who barely trains + struggles with anybody who wanna take him down and has some cardio.

Heinisch is my favourite type of fighter:

Durable guys (cardio and chin) with simple game who don't take too big risks (and don't have obvious glaring holes in their game that can be exploited), but do all they can to score points and steal rounds. Often they are underdogs.
Examples: Akhmedov, Guida, Chiesa, B.Muhhamad, Vettori
When I think about it, there are not a lot of pure examples of this type of fighter... But I love them, because they'll fight for your money, and even when they are really overmatched, they still have a chance they still put their best effort...

 

Usman seemed pretty disappointed with his last performance, is it crazy to think he'll push the pace and try to get an earlier finish?

 

I was thinking the opposite (before tape). Heinisch doesn't have great boxing, not to the level to hang with Kelvin and I don't recall being all that impressed with his offensive grappling. Kelvin is only at these odds because he is on a 3 fight losing streak. Maybe I'll see something different once I tape

 

UFC 258, Saturday, February 13, 2021

“My opponents can say or do whatever they want to,
but when you step inside that cage with me,
everything you say on the outside can and will be used against them.”
- Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman

parlay +300

Kamaru Usman -278, 12-0 in UFC since July 2013
Rodolfo Vieira -400, age 31

Belal Muhammad -496, 7-1 ^
Feb 2017 Kelvin Gastelum -227, 10-6 ^ April 2013
Ricky Simon -278, 5-2 ^ April 2018


June 2019 quote on Rodolfo Vieira:

"The brazilian Vieira is well known for his career in BJJ. Vieira in his BJJ career has a record of 96-10 (on paper) with 62 submissions. Some of his accomplishments in grappling include UAEJJF Abu Dhabi World Pro Champion, IBJJF Pans Champion, ADCC Champion, IBJJF World Champion, and much more.

Vieira hasn’t shown much on the feet offensively besides good leg kicks. That’s because he doesn’t usually waste time before shooting for a take down and getting the fight to the mat. Vieira has shown good wrestling, timing his shots and getting his hands together to complete the double leg take down.

The mat is his dojo, as he is a high-level grappler obviously with his background in BJJ. He’s very patient but still quick in his transitions, easily going to the mount and the back easily. He has some rear naked choke wins and one by ground and pound. Hasn't faced good competition, a lot of him is still unknown.

He’s purely a grappler so if he can’t get a take down, he will most likely struggle. Vieira has gone to the third round once as his gas tank held up but his pace did slow. It’s hard to say how he will do against top competition.

What makes Vieira such an exciting addition to the UFC is his style of grappling, which should translate particularly well to elite MMA. For those unfamiliar with Vieira’s grappling, think of him as the anti-Ryan Hall. Vieira is a physically imposing top control artist with excellent takedowns and quite literally some of the best guard passing ever seen in sport jiu-jitsu.

Vieira is not the type of specialist to flop to his back at the first opportunity. No, he’s looking to take his opponent to the mat, smash through his defenses, cut off all potential escape routes, and grab a submission. This skillset should serve Vieira well against world-class MMA competition, where fighters have honed their submission defense. Vieira doesn’t need a submission to win; he can control and win the fight from top position.

 

Digging into green vs Rowe and can't help but think Gabe Green will be way too much for Rowe

 

Definately favour Green

 

What I got from that short clip is that Usman thinks his stand-up is still stiff and needs work (which I agree). Not that he wants to push the pace more and to look to finish it early. Usman plays it very safe every time. He is extremely coachable and disciplined.

So with that in mind what I get from Wittman is that he's kinda liberal and won't force his style on all of his fighters. He works with your style, not against it. He helps you to do what you are already doing and to clean up your mistakes. I'm not sure about what I've just wrote, but thats the vibe I'm getting from him.

Edit: one common denominator between all his fighters that I can think of is that they all have very good kill instinct. Very good opportunists! So this can be some clue...

 

I have Burns on this fight card. Muhammad dec bet.


Hopefully no fights will get cancelled. The fight card looks good.

 

Robertson-Dec

Rowe-Tko2

Simon-Dec

Martin-Dec

Muhammad-Dec

Vieria-Sub2

Green-Dec

Marquez-KO2

Riveria-Dec

Gastelum-Dec

Grasso-Dec

Usman-Dec

 

When it comes to Bobby Green vs Jim Miler. I think i will take Green here i think he had improved quite a lot. Jim Miler path to victory can only come through by a lucky way of submission. I dont see how Miler wins a Dec here agaisnt Bobby green. Most of the Green fights had come through a dec. This should be a interesting fun fight.

 

Usman couldn't finish a wank

Decision +140

 

Completely agree with these picks. Usman will likely dominate in his usual fashion. Gastelum's hands will be too good for Heinisch, and Heinisch doesn't have the offensive wrestling to take the fight to the ground if he needs to. Bobby Green is faster and has better technique than Jim Miller, I think he will win a clear cut decision there.

 

Heinisch Big 1.5

Green Big 1.5

Vieira Small 1.5

 

But Idk what I will bet though yet those are just my predictions of how the fights will end depending on the odds will be what I bet I hope you will win all your bets this event lol

 

First look / thought I like

Rivera + Green + Burns + Gastelum + Grasso + Veira

I feel like this is a good matchup for Burns. This will play out on its feet and there is a reason why Usman went to Whitman - he knows alot of these high caliber fights are going to be kickboxing fights. I really think Burns has sneaky power and could land some big shots here. Usman is hittable.

 

I agree, Burns may not be the best striker in the division but he has come a long way. He looks sharp, surprisingly quick and some really good power in his hands. I think he’s been a good wrestler as well as a elite jiu jitsu practitioner and you often see him blasting a double leg, for example. I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes Usman down at some point. I think Usman will find the most success in clinching and grinding against the fence.

Standing I’ll give it to Burns, on the ground it’ll be interesting. So Usman should try to grind against the cage at least early in the fight because he’s too stiff to strike it out any longer than necessary IMO, especially when Burns is fresh.

 

what is 1.5?

 

Anybody else think Simon wins pretty comfortably? I think it probably goes alot like Stamann vs Kelleher with Simon having more success in the grappling exchanges.