UFC 258: Usman vs Burns

WolfgangKennelz said:
I understand what you're saying. I think Simon is a little wide but for good reason. But I think that -210 (not -230) on gastelum is a very nice line. Heinisch had to scrap for that win against Carlos junior... wasn't an easy fight junior gassed too. Gastelum has gone 5 ridiculously hard rounds before. I honestly would play gastelum up to 3 to 1 , and think the -210 I'm getting is a gift. Heinisch I'd expect to be much improved since those carlos junior and cezar Ferreira fights, but I wouldn't expect the 32 year old to really close the gap on a 29 year old fighter. Gastelum had solid amount of time off. Took no real damage in a long time. I think the multiple paths to victory for Heinisch a lot of people see are moreso mirages.. respectfully of course. Losing 3 fights in a row to top 5 guys one being ufc champion in a fight he got 2 of the 5 rounds ... I don't mind laying juice wen I think it's a lock. I also fire bullets. Never been scared. It's how I bet. I'm up almost $11,000 in 2021 even after that MJ debacle last week. I trust the process. Just think gastelum is borderline undervalued here
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Gastelum also gassed badly in 3 rounds with Jacare before. Survived the early grappling there then got heel hooked easily Vs Hermansson. Fuck knows what state he'll turn up in and how he'll fight. You get anything from a champ level guy that fought Izzy to an out of shape quitter. Too much volatility for a big fav.
 
2020Tracked said:
Why is Kelvin Gastelum getting so much love this week when you can get much more proven and consistent fighters in Ricky Simon and Usman for the same price
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Great stylistic matchup for Gastelum. He's on another level striking and Heinisch has very little offensive grappling. Plus, he's cheaper.
 
@Sadistics I know you cant get into as many details as before, but what are your thought on Marquez. I really like him in this spot vs Pitolo. Not sure if I am missing something or theres another angle I dont see.. My thoughts are Pitolo can crack and Marquez has an iron chin plus pretty good cardio.
 
What are yall seeing in Green over Rowe? Rowe got out to a shaky start in his debut in pretty much the only relevant video we have to watch of him, but he's got a significant amount of reach over Green. He's also very accurate and I could totally see him out pointing a guy who was really "herky jerky" in a lot of his movements against Rodriguez. Rowe reminds me a lot of Ewell, in that I think he's aware of his physical tools and use them to his advantage.

Not saying the two are the same and Ewell wins his fight (Gutierrez has kicks he should be able to land in abundance and swing things his way). But I'm not exactly seeing where Green has any advantage here.
 
Really hard getting a read on the main event.

Woodley had success in the clinch, and Usman is way better than Woodley is in the clinch.

Burns also didn't have to work much at all in that fight, and was breathing heavy in round 4. Not gassed by any means, but he absolutely does not have the cardio that Usman has.

I see Burns paths to victory, but he's not going to be able to get Usman down, and knocking him out is going to be tough.

If he's forced to work in the clinch, and Usman is able to avoid subs while taking him to the ground, Burns will slow.

Burns has incredible BJJ, but Usman has heavy pressure from the top, and we've never seen Burns be able to mount offense from his back.

I still like my initial lean of Usman slowing Burns down, and finishing him in the later rounds. But I haven't pulled the trigger on Usman yet, I think his price will improve.

Only fight I've been are on Miller, Miller rd1, and Barber.

Bobby Green, if taken down, when he goes to get back to his feet gives up his back so incredibly frequently. If Miller is able to capitalize on that, he'll sub him.

Barber is an enticing prospect. I truly believe she lost to Roxanne because of her ACL. She has great stand up, and is proficient on the mat, too.

The UFC wants to build this girl up, hence why she's the co-main after a loss and at only 22 years old.
 
Invictis said:
Barber is an enticing prospect. I truly believe she lost to Roxanne because of her ACL. She has great stand up, and is proficient on the mat, too.

The UFC wants to build this girl up, hence why she's the co-main after a loss and at only 22 years old.
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I haven’t rewatched that fight (and probably never will), but I remember Roxy landing the better blows before the knee blew up. Barber looked a bit slow and stiff there and we’ll see where she’s at after a knee injury and long layoff.

I think she’ll get outpointed on the feet.
 
I am still lost on Kelvin Gastelum why is he so priced high on the odds though.

I am still going to hedge out with Heinisch here just in case.
 
MikeK1989 said:
@Sadistics I know you cant get into as many details as before, but what are your thought on Marquez. I really like him in this spot vs Pitolo. Not sure if I am missing something or theres another angle I dont see.. My thoughts are Pitolo can crack and Marquez has an iron chin plus pretty good cardio.
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I didn't put much time into this one with Marquez having his lat torn off the bone forcing him out of training for about 2 years. Too many Qs for me to get involved
 
Kelvin is bit of a mental midget like MJ. Things have needed to go his way big time in the camp for him to look like that big of a favorite.
 
Invictis said:
Really hard getting a read on the main event.

Woodley had success in the clinch, and Usman is way better than Woodley is in the clinch.

Burns also didn't have to work much at all in that fight, and was breathing heavy in round 4. Not gassed by any means, but he absolutely does not have the cardio that Usman has.

I see Burns paths to victory, but he's not going to be able to get Usman down, and knocking him out is going to be tough.

If he's forced to work in the clinch, and Usman is able to avoid subs while taking him to the ground, Burns will slow.

Burns has incredible BJJ, but Usman has heavy pressure from the top, and we've never seen Burns be able to mount offense from his back.

I still like my initial lean of Usman slowing Burns down, and finishing him in the later rounds. But I haven't pulled the trigger on Usman yet, I think his price will improve.

Only fight I've been are on Miller, Miller rd1, and Barber.

Bobby Green, if taken down, when he goes to get back to his feet gives up his back so incredibly frequently. If Miller is able to capitalize on that, he'll sub him.

Barber is an enticing prospect. I truly believe she lost to Roxanne because of her ACL. She has great stand up, and is proficient on the mat, too.

The UFC wants to build this girl up, hence why she's the co-main after a loss and at only 22 years old.
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Good analyse, what do You think of Heinisch?
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
I am still lost on Kelvin Gastelum why is he so priced high on the odds though.

I am still going to hedge out with Heinisch here just in case.
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-210 isn't exactly high ... that's the line I've been getting and is still available. Why is Heinisch priced as such a modest dog is the question I'm asking. He knocked out Meerschaert, and beat 2 fighters who are no longer with UFC. And didn't exactly dominate either fight. Was actually getting beat by Junior til Jr gassed.. can Heinisch crack? I think so... but meerschaert been glass lately. Does gastelum get KOd? No he's proven very durable. Can gastelum get controlled and battered? I doubt it. Hes too quick and his hands are too good. I understand looking for value but I think alot of you are missing an easy -210 bet here. Gastelum been fighting at a level I honestly don't think Heinisch will have the time or the capability to get to
 
Burns needs to fake the left hook as part of his arsenal for this fight. Usman is looking to intercept with a straight right down the pipe and when he does he needs to intercept on his own by dipping left out of centerline and throwing his overhand right.
 
HockeyBjj said:
When has Burns pulled guard in the UFC?

If I'm seeing Burns +240 appeal, I'm seeing it from the striking. Burns throws everything hard, and Usman drops his hands on resets. Staggering a step back and coming right in could get him some wide open shots.

But I also think Usman is just far too dominating to bet against
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Im betting Burns and hedging some risk with Usman decision.
 
LEMONZEST said:
Strictly a feel play. I think Burns finishes Usman. Usmams whole game is shutting down the fight with grappling. If Burns comes in hot and can disengage those grappling positions I think he can make Usman very uncomfortable and find an early finish. I love the r1 and r2 finish props for Burns.
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But this is a weird scenario. Usman "grapples" by just forcing a clinch against the cage, either holding you there or slowly dragging you down. I think Burns should be avoiding ANY clinch engagements. Fuck the over/under and double unders, don't engage in a clinch and keep circling away from the cage.
 
Kazda1 said:
What are yall seeing in Green over Rowe? Rowe got out to a shaky start in his debut in pretty much the only relevant video we have to watch of him, but he's got a significant amount of reach over Green. He's also very accurate and I could totally see him out pointing a guy who was really "herky jerky" in a lot of his movements against Rodriguez. Rowe reminds me a lot of Ewell, in that I think he's aware of his physical tools and use them to his advantage.

Not saying the two are the same and Ewell wins his fight (Gutierrez has kicks he should be able to land in abundance and swing things his way). But I'm not exactly seeing where Green has any advantage here.
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I think Gabe is the more well rounded fighter and he has faced better competition. Before his Contender Series fight Rowe's 6 prior opponents had a record of 7-13. Most of Rowes opponents have 1 win or less... His best win is a comeback against Leon Shahbayzan who Gabe finished in the first round.

Green also says he took the Rodriguez fight with almost no camp, given the state of the world I believe him. That might explain his timing or "herky jerky" movement. He seems to be better prepared coming into this fight. Plus he is a Yu Yu Hakusho fan and you don't fuck with the spirt detective.
 
I think the Heinisch/Gastelum fight will be a closely contested standup fight. I wouldn't touch Kelvin at anywhere near -225.

Same goes for Kelleher bout. Ricky Simon is good but I wouldn't bet him at -250.

I am not interested in betting it because WMMA... but I think Grasso beats up Barber pretty easily.
 
Really don't love this card from a betting perspective (or any perspective as a PPV lol) . With that being said, I'm gonna be betting Gabe Green ML and will probably end up throwing down on Gillian Robertson (it's shakey but her path to victory is there and also I have a soft spot since she was a training partner of mine for a few years). Might also play Grasso ML, Usman by Dec, and try and fade Marquez coming off an injury/inactivity.

I've never played any parlays but I think this will be my first card to do so. Belal-Rodolfo-Usman is +107 but adding Simon puts it at +190. I'm super high on Simon and have been underwhelmed by Kelleher. Am I being delusional? Seems like people are not as confident in Simon as I am and I'm open to being wrong on this one. Any advice on prospective parlays would be appreciated as I have no experience lol.

Also considering putting something small on a Hail Mary of Belal by Dec - Rodolfo by Sub- Usman by Dec at +455 or ( add Simon by Dec for +871)
 
Rodolfo Vieira by KO/TKO: +1100
Rodolfo Vieira by KO/TKO in round 1: +1800
Rodolfo Vieira by KO/TKO in round 2: +4200

Anybody else potentially see some value in these props for small unit betting? Obviously unlikely, but you never know, could be stopped due to strikes from crucifix position or something.
 
Sono07 said:
I think Gabe is the more well rounded fighter and he has faced better competition. Before his Contender Series fight Rowe's 6 prior opponents had a record of 7-13. Most of Rowes opponents have 1 win or less... His best win is a comeback against Leon Shahbayzan who Gabe finished in the first round.

Green also says he took the Rodriguez fight with almost no camp, given the state of the world I believe him. That might explain his timing or "herky jerky" movement. He seems to be better prepared coming into this fight. Plus he is a Yu Yu Hakusho fan and you don't fuck with the spirt detective.
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Yea he took the fight on a Tuesday. Fought on a Saturday with tremendous output. If Rowe can't KO him, I think Green breaks him down. ROWE DONT LIKE TO GET HIT. Green will be getting in. Pressuring him. Hitting him. Getting off high kicks. Punches from all ages. For 15 minutes straight. I put no stock in Rowes comeback victory over Leon Shahbazyan because in my opinion L Shabazyan is a trash fighter. Having said that, its been almost 2 years so Rowe could have improved exponentially. But I'm pretty confident in Green here. He got hit flush by Daniel Rodriguez a number of times. And he can punch. I can't see Rowe hitting any harder than Rodriguez
 
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