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UFC 258: Usman vs Burns

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by svmr_db, Feb 1, 2021.

  1. Sono07 Brown Belt

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    Dana talking mma betting and reminiscing about losing a million dollar bet on a boxing match.
     
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  2. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Maycee Barber is shit. A truly awful bet and unskilled hype train that somehow has some momentum.

    Thank you to all that bet her.
     
  3. Invictis Brown Belt

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    You're welcome!

    Adding more right now.
     
  4. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    It's -3 degrees here and snowing. So decided to watch some tape for the ME.

    Burns is a live dog here. Yeah Usman should be favored but Burns really does present some challenges that Usman hasn't seen.

    Usman got hit by Colby a lot. Colby has no power and Usman landed plenty too, but Usman really doesn't have great footwork and defense at range. Burns has power too.

    Burns may not QUITE be Maia level BJJ, but he's not far off. And the sprawl n brawl Usman used vs Maia likely isn't the strategy we see from Usman. Burns is just eons better with his striking than Maia. Fast and powerful, he can hurt Usman at any time. I'd imagine Usman will look to wall n stall Burns like he did Masvidal, but Gilbert won't be desperate to avoid the TD like Jorge was.

    Gilbert's cardio has been a question but at 170 it may not be a big issue. He looked great for 5 rds vs Woodley. Granted, to be fair, Burns was the hammer the entire fight so if Usman forces him to be the nail for some stretches maybe the cardio does come more into play.

    Size is a factor too, Usman definitely looks like the bigger guy.

    But man...Burns has multiple paths to victory imo. His grappling is slick enough to latch on a sub. He's got the striking and power to hurt Usman standing. And if his cardio holds up I don't even think it's outrageous that he'd win a decision in a fight that's at range (if Colby could do as well as he did at range why can't Gilbert?)

    I'm actually thinking there's a bit of value on Burns here at +200 or better. I think I'd cap him more like +150 ish.
     
  5. Invictis Brown Belt

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    I switched sides so many times before deciding to go with Usman.

    Burns is live. And what's worrying me is Usman saying all this week he wants a Masvidal rematch.

    Fuck the title, just money fights now? Gilbert is hungry, hopefully Usman still has that hunger.

    The rumor about his knees basically having no cartilage left is a bit worrying too.
     
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  6. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I see a decent amount of people on Barber in the bets thread. What's the thinking?

    That just her pure aggression will overwhelm Grasso? That Barber is a better wrestler than we think?

    Asking because if this is a striking match, Grasso has looked far more polished and slick from what I've seen. Barber has more power but seems to telegraph her shots and load up quite a bit. And her defense kinda sucks (even for WMMA).

    That said I know aggression can count for a lot in WMMA so don't want to outright dismiss that but I still think Grasso has looked like the better striker.
     
  7. Invictis Brown Belt

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    In a nutshell, Grasso has rather dogshit tdd and the only advantage I'd give her is the more polished striking.

    Barber has better wrestling, more power, and should be able to brute force clinch positions + takedowns.

    It's a dog or pass fight, and a lot of people got Barber @ +130-150.

    The UFC is really pushing Barber, and the year off at her age might've done wonders for her.

    She's -105 now, -110 on some books. Would I lay down a lot on her here? No. But I did add to her at evens after Jordan lowkey called Barber backers idiots.
     
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  8. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Makes sense. I think Barber should try to wrestle but I don't trust her to do that. I can see her going in and swinging wildly and getting lit up.

    But, she could also prove me wrong and show massive improvement. Coming off a loss and being humbled (albeit with an injury during that fight) could be good for Barber too.
     
  9. Broe. Brown Belt

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    Barber getting outstruck on the feet by JJ Aldrich and Modafferi are huge red flags imo, Grasso is a better striker than both of them. Barber might win with a heavy takedown approach but we really dont know how good she is at that, she is so inexperienced.
     
  10. Martialbeef Red Belt

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    People are sleeping on Gas by TKO/KO
     
  11. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Kelvin? The utter inactivity he showed vs Till is what makes me like Heinisch. I just don't know how much Kelvin cares anymore.
     
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  12. Martialbeef Red Belt

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    Till is really dangerous. Heinisch is an above average tough guy. As Corey Anderson famously once said, there are levels to this, Ian is not on Kelvin’s level

    i will probably be quoting this when Kelvin is somehow lying on the ground surrounded by oxygen
     
  13. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Till is a more dangerous striker, agree. But Heinisch showed if nothing else he has some pop when he blasted Meerschart.

    And while there are levels, I'm not sure there are many guys where motivation matters as much as it does to Kelvin. When he was young and improving, he was a handful for anyone. Now...does he even do a real camp? Seems like the war with Izzy and not getting over the hump may have absolutely deflated any drive he had. Maybe not...but it's a real concern imo.
     
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  14. shankmcgank Beep/Boop/Bop

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    Try and stay away from parlays if you can.

    There is a reason people call them "suckers bets".

    For every nice parlay hit, there are hundreds lost.

    If you do decide to try them, here is a basic "Dos and Donts" article for you.

    http://www.bookiesmash.com/football/tips/types-of-bets-parlays-2634.htm
     
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  15. Broe. Brown Belt

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    Robertson vs Maverick off.....
     
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  16. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    This ppv is fucking dogshit.
     
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  17. SolarSeiko Purple Belt

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    Wtf
     
  18. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    It is pretty bad. I would still like tickets for it later though if you had any extras ha ha.
     
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  19. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    When does this shitty card start after maverick cancel, 1hr from now?
     
  20. Captain Chesapeake Blue Belt

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    Of course, had Robertson at +190
     

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