UFC 259: Blachowicz vs Adesanya

Let's talk about?

Only taped maybe 5 fights so far, and my biggest question at the moment is - What makes Petr Yan so good?

He keeps winning, he keeps hurting people but his game is so no thrills - Just edges his way in, coveres his opponents lead hand and picks at them, then sure enough, slowly, over the course of a couple of rounds, almost without any one realising, his opponent is all fucked up and bleeding ready to quit.

Magic? Russian voodoo?

 

Yan just has that immigrant mentality

 

Nune R1 +145 - stuck a $100 on that. Should be a grand, but I am such a chicken when it comes to props. Anderson r1 $20 at +2800. Well, Nunes might knock herself out when she slams Anderson on to the mat

 

I wouldn't be too confident in Nunes R1. She played with her food last time out against Spencer and just embarrassed her for 5 rounds.

 

The line seems too much of a trap, you are right. But, the difference is that Spencer can actually fight though, that's why she bat Anderson in R1. Anderson's UFC is one of the worst I have ever seen to earn a 'title shot'.

 

Anyone other than myself feel like Adesanya falls here?

 

They have weight classes for a reason and Jan battered Reyes. I think if Jan touches him he will feel it and small cage probably doesnt help Izzy keep the distance he wants...

No bets for me yet but i wouldnt argue a stab on Jan over +220

 

I got 2U on Jan. It should be a very tactical battle, but if Jan can land his low calf kick and stay behind his jab he should be able to hurt Izzy enough to close the distance and finish him in the clinch or with GnP. That's what I think anyway. Izzy doesn't have a long reach advantage in this match-up, and he will struggle to stay out of Jan's range.

 

reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/luecsd/ufc_259_blachowicz_vs_adesanya_saturday_march_6th/

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-259-blachowicz-vs-adesanya-2038

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/74079-ufc-fight-night

https://www.oddsshark.com/ufc/ufc-259-odds-predictions-betting-picks

https://www.reddit.com/r/mmapredictions/

UFC 259, Saturday, March 6, 2021

parlay +187

Israel Adesanya -250
Islam Makhachev -335

Sean Brady -220, 3-0 in UFC
Amanda Nunes -1,165

Sean Thomas "Tom" Brady is fluid on the mat with control, and even though he only has 3 submissions, Brady is a major threat on the floor. He’s excellent on the mat, he’s shown to not be one-dimensional, Brady is precise with his strikes and leg kicks. With that said, Brady is good when mixing in his striking and wrestling. With good IQ, wrestling, grappling, cardio, and improving striking"

Has 2 TKO wins and 1 KO win. 7 wins by Decision. 3 submission choke wins. 13-0 pro record. 4-0 as amateur. Betting line opened at -170

Sean Thomas Brady out-techniques him on the feet and racks up long stretches of top control

 

Locked in aljo at +142 last month I feel he is the better fighter everywhere. Yan doesn’t have that one punch ko power and has been overwhelming his opponents with volume in the later rounds when he breaks them with his forward pressure and great boxing. I don’t believe he will be able to do that to aljo who has a great chin and more than likely won’t stand with him for large periods of The fight. Aljo will get him down and work him on the ground and if he doesn’t get a sub finish he will outlast him in 5 rounds.

 

Any thoughts on Cruz at +125? I know he's been out for awhile but still that seems too low.
He didn't look bad in the Cejudo fight before the finish imo.

 

Bautista-Dec
Medic-SUB1
France-Dec
Matthews-Dec
Ncksewzku-Dec
Elliot-Dec
Lemos-Dec
Askaraov-Dec
Song-Dec
Cruz-Dec
Santos-KO2
Makachev-Dec
Sterling-Dec
Nunes-Dec
Isreal-KO2

 

Adesanya makes it look easy for most of the fight by evading Jan’s big shots. Gets hit a couple times but clear Adesanya DEC

Megan Anderson gives a nice showing to Nunes but ultimately falls short. The bet is not Nunes R1

Yan and Sterling keep their distance for a bit until Yan starts finding distance. He looks like he’s going to cruise until the fight hits the ground and he gets subbed out, refusing to tap.

Dominick Cruz reminds people there are levels to this as he schools Casey Kenney and cruises to a wide decision.

Drew Dober wins a fight night bonus and people start wondering about where he belongs in the title picture after he catches Makachev with a hard shot.

 

After getting lazy for the last event, i decided to actually study tape for this one. i've been very succesful when doing so, so i hope to get back on track. i've studied 2 so far.

I thought Jan was a good pick beforehand, now not so much. Sure, there might be a tiny bit of value but it's not much, if at all. Jan gets his devastating linear uppercut, hook combinations going when he's fighting on the backfoot. When he's the one pressuring he kicks a lot (often from the lefty stance, that left body kick is a whip). leg kicks are good too, but there's not much after that. Izzy is DEFINITELY NOT gonna pressure Jan, he's playing matador on saturday, just like he has done with any respectable puncher he's ever fought (Costa, Romero). that leaves us with a technical striking battle, with lots of kicks, where izzy's got the better distance management, lateral footwork and is the quicker guy. I doubt Jan has much success with tds. Most of the tds ive seen from him were reactive tds (again, when fighting on the backfoot) or a result of a grappling exchange proposed by his opponent. Of course, he could show us a new wrinkle (he may very well do that, he's got 20lbs on adesanya and it is arguably his main ptv) but he hasn't so far, and izzy's got great tdd. I think Izzy is gonna win this fight, and prob by dec, but price isn't great.

Yan and Aljo is a bit harder to read imho. Believe it or not, Yan's fight vs Jin soo son was pretty useful. After all, he's long and lanky, pushed a good pace and threw these looping shots that aljo does as well. However, apart from the obvious speed and straight level discrepancy, one of Aljo's main weapons is the teep (along with the roundhouse and switch kick) and i haven't seen how Yan deals with that. It's important cause Aljo throws that shit in bunches, and it's a very disruptive move. Aljo's got a decent reach and size advantage and his rythym and cardio make him a super tough opponent. Regarding his wrestling, i don't think it'll come to play that much. Yan's got a strong stance and has shown great tdd (he could get taken down if he gets reckless and aljo times him right coming in, having said that, i think Yan's ground game is good enough to stand up especially after the first rd). I expect Aljo to have a strong first round, cause he pushes a ridiculous pace and throws tons of volume (unlike yan, who often takes a round off to get his opponent's timing etc.). That explosiveness is gonna go down tho, by the second or third, and that's when Yan is gonna be able to get inside quick and throw strong boxing combinations. he could start a clinch battle if he grabs one of Aljo's hands when he throws slower looping punches and land knees, elbows. Yan's got that immigrant mentality boys, and i don't think a not so fresh aljo can withstand that barrage. It's gonna be a fun one, and i think a good option is to livebet Yan. Under is set at 3.5 for a reason, hard to call. i'd go with the under if i had to.

So far im not loving any play, but i've got a good idea of what to expect, imo. Interested in rakic vs santos, cruz vs kenney and benavidez vs askarov. Lines look good and i feel there might be a good play.

pd: had brady on a parlay with some fighters last saturday. lost that one and now i see brady's price has improved. i'm not seeing why people are playing matthews.

 

Sterling +120
Cruz +125

On both. Think they prove to be the value sides but I really rate Yan and Cruz is made of glass. Prime Cruz is -450 here so how much has he fallen?

 

Izzy #3 MW worldwide?

Umm...who are the two guys ahead of him?

 

whittaker #1 and costa #2 lol

 

You don't think he looked bad vs cejudo? I think he looked rather slow (compared to his dilashaw fight), and I lost count how many leg kicks he absorbed, must have been over 20. He barely landed anything in the 1st round. In the 2nd round he had a bit of success with just brawling, but he was still getting outstruck. My overall impression is that Cruz is a very diminished version of his old self. A much slower version without his characteristic footwork. He also seemed to have no answer for the leg kicks and Kenney is quite good at that imo. Still Cruz might win comfortably here, if he can get some takedowns going. It all depends on his wrestling imo.

 

good points but why don’t you think aljo can get Yan down? Yans takedown defense has not been tested against the competition he faced and aljo is a massive step up in that regard. Yans early patient approach will not serve him well here. Aljo will not slow down.

 

I am on Cruz at + money too, he didn't look great against Cejudo but I still think he has enough to pick Kenney apart at distance and win a decision. This is a massive step up in competition for Kenney will be interesting to see how he handles it