UFC 259: Blachowicz vs Adesanya

I am on Cruz at + money too, he didn't look great against Cejudo but I still think he has enough to pick Kenney apart at distance and win a decision. This is a massive step up in competition for Kenney will be interesting to see how he handles it

My issue wirh some of these "older" fighters is volume. Some of these guys just refuse to be active enough. I am really hoping Cruz comes out guns blazing here
 
Cruz had a 4 year layoff to contend with which is pretty insane when you think about it. Lots of fighters look dogshit at half that time like Santiago recently. I think there's a good chance Cruz looks much better this time.
 
cruz at +125 might be the steal of the year.

He's levels above Casey. I get Cruz got KO'd by CCC but i can't see casey hitting cruz with anything that powerful.

Cruz via stick and move for 15 minutes with a few takedowns sprinkled in.

Askar at -125 is also a steal. Joe is shot and shouldn't be facing top competition anymore. I see another him being KO'd again and hopefully hanging up the gloves.

Megan/Amanda to go over 1.5 rounds seems like a safe enough bet. Amanda lost a little bit of fire after the baby I think.
 
Yea agree with Cruz being plus money I’ll
Take that every single time. And if he loses so be it the plus money will certainly be worth the risk.
 
I think the small cage could hurt Cruz's style maybe Izzy's too. Maybe I'm wrong but I think the game has caught up to Dominick.

I like Bautista here, he fights like a more calculated Timur Valiev. Much better movement and boxing than Jones. Valuev nearly tkoed Jones before throwing a low kick with no set up and getting caught.
 
Askar is levels below Fig.

Joe B may have lost a step, but this fight isn't going to be incredibly difficult for him.

Askar has better grappling than Figgy and his striking is not anything to sneeze at either. 'levels' below seems a bit of an exaggeration.
 
Hopefully people aren't confusing Askar Askarov and Askar Askar again. Askarov is pretty legit in my opinion, not exactly Fig but not levels below either. Both men have a draw with Brandon Morono and a win over Tim Elliot.

Askarov hit Elliot hard enough that Tim thought he got KOed in R1. If he lands like this on Benavidez we will find out if his chin is completely gone or not. I think Askar can drop Joey the same way Fig did.


 
Hopefully people aren't confusing Askar Askarov and Askar Askar again. Askarov is pretty legit in my opinion, not exactly Fig but not levels below either. Both men have a draw with Brandon Morono and a win over Tim Elliot.

Askarov hit Elliot hard enough that Tim thought he got KOed in R1. If he lands like this on Benavidez we will find out if his chin is completely gone or not. I think Askar can drop Joey the same way Fig did.



I don’t know how much stock id put into hurting Tim Elliot at this point in his career.

I dont see any reason why askarov should be the favorite here.
 
My issue wirh some of these "older" fighters is volume. Some of these guys just refuse to be active enough. I am really hoping Cruz comes out guns blazing here


Mostly agree here but kind of see there's openings to hit Kenney as seen in the Wood fight. I guess my takeaway was Cruz just has to keep touching Kenney when he finds them and not get put away. It's not like Kenney can't be taken down if he finds himself off balance. Cruz should be able to decision this pretty easily, but if he doesn't he should hang it up. In my mind, it would pretty much say that style of his doesn't really work anymore.

Cruz can say what he wants about ring rust not existing, but it was either that or he was just hesitant because he didn't throw a lot in the Cejudo fight.
 
good points but why don’t you think aljo can get Yan down? Yans takedown defense has not been tested against the competition he faced and aljo is a massive step up in that regard. Yans early patient approach will not serve him well here. Aljo will not slow down.
It's hard to put into words but aljo's strenghts (long distance striking and great grappling) lead me to think the dynamic of the fight, at least early, will see him kicking A LOT While yan can't seem to get much going. Aljo is far from a ko artist but he is explosive and his kicks and movement are fast. Yan, although he isn't one, stands like a brick shithouse. Heavy stance. He is expecting tds so he'll take the center of the octagon and plant his feet, have a discreet first rd, while aljo racks some points and dances around the octagon. Yan isn't sandhagen, he's more physical, it wouldn't be the best idea for aljo to aggressively pursue the td when they are both 100% (he recently said he's so but, you know how these things go). Anyway, if he does it, he's getting stuffed or hurt in the clinch. Yan is the better fighter in the dirty boxing range, very dangerous. I expect this advantage to show especially after the second rd, when aljo isn't as fresh and his strikes and entrances get sloppier, cause they do.
Fight is somewhat hard to read since aljo is better (early) at long range, yan much better at mid range and aljo expectedly better up close. Aljo's got to get through that difficult mid range at some point, cause his cardio ain't gonna hold up 25 mins moving and kicking that much, and i don't think he does it succesfully, considering he'll be fighting on the backfoot.

It's a close fight tho, and you never know for a fact what's gonna happen. I wouldn't be too surprised if aljo stuns yan with a hard kick early, after all I expect him to have success in the first couple rds. I just don't think he keeps that pace up, and then opens opportunities for yan to unload.
 
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I think there's value in some of these props that are out:

Sean Brady inside the distance +270 vs Jake Matthews
Aleksandar Rakic by decision +250 vs Thiago Santos
Petr Yan by decision +270 vs Aljamain Sterling
 
Anyone have a read on the Song/ Phillips fight?

Kind of feel like neither one these guys play the nail well. Initially I leaned Song but part of me thinks Phillips is on a come up. Then again it's hard to judge because this is definitely a step up in competition based on who Phillips has faced so far. Phillips looks good on the feet but is that because the guys he's faced have offered no resistance?
 
I agree with some of the posts here re: value on Cruz and leaning toward Sterling.

Is nobody here intrigued by Santos at +money vs Rakic? I couldn't believe how wide the line was when it opened and it's slowly trickling down. Buy low spot on a guy who can knock anyone out and went toe-to-toe with Bones.
 
How do you guys feel about trevin vs Bautista? I got trevin slight on experience and solid wrestling bjj black

Mario has a brown belt, more higher volume thai boxing and feints, while trevin is the heavy handed decent muay thai.

Im kinda scratching my head.
 
I don’t know how much stock id put into hurting Tim Elliot at this point in his career.

I dont see any reason why askarov should be the favorite here.
Why is that? Elliott's chin held up to Figueiredo's power shots much, much better than Joey's did. Closest Fig came to putting Elliot out was holding onto a choke too long. Benavidez getting absolutely murdered twice last year is enough reason for me to see why Askar is the favorite.

I don't see how anyone can have faith in Joey after those last 2 fights. He is pretty old for a 125er too. He went into that second Fig fight still suffering concussion symptoms from the first. It showed too, he was getting dropped by nearly every shot. For my money I'll take the young, hungry, undefeated russian rather than taking a chance that Joey shows up any less shopworn than he has recently. Anyone betting on Joey is putting alot more stock in his record than his recent performances.
 
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I agree with some of the posts here re: value on Cruz and leaning toward Sterling.

Is nobody here intrigued by Santos at +money vs Rakic? I couldn't believe how wide the line was when it opened and it's slowly trickling down. Buy low spot on a guy who can knock anyone out and went toe-to-toe with Bones.

Ya I am. Santos being a muay Thai champ is being severely underlooked here. This is going to be a kickboxing fight and we know how great Santos is at kickboxing- hell if Rakic fought Jones and Teixeira he would have some more Ls on his record.

Definitely believe there is value here.
 
How do you guys feel about trevin vs Bautista? I got trevin slight on experience and solid wrestling bjj black

Mario has a brown belt, more higher volume thai boxing and feints, while trevin is the heavy handed decent muay thai.

Im kinda scratching my head.
I've got Bautista all day, his boxing, footwork and movement is much better than Trevin's. Trevin struggled alot against the range/kicks of Timur in his last fight. Timur was lighting Trevin up on the feet before throwing a bad kick and getting caught.

I give the power advantage to Trevin but I think Bautista will be alot faster. I see Mario getting in and out of range mixing in kicks and straight shots while a frustrated Jones whiffs on heavy counter shots.

I think Mario is a talented prospect, he had a competitive fight with Sandhagen who has some of the best movement in the division up until he got subbed. Smart guy too, he actually used the same jump knee that Sandhagen hit him with to score a knockdown and get a TKO in his last fight. Jones might land a bomb and get the KO but I think Mario's distance management will dictate the fight.
 
What's going to stop Rakic from wrestle fucking Santos the same way he did Smith or Glover did to Santos? Smith actually has a solid ground game and Rakic dominated him. I doubt Santos's ground game has improved post knee replacements either. I like Santos more on the feet but if Rakic gets him down I think it's over.
 
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