UFC 259: Blachowicz vs Adesanya

Sono07 said:
I've got Bautista all day, his boxing, footwork and movement is much better than Trevin's. Trevin struggled alot against the range/kicks of Timur in his last fight. Timur was lighting Trevin up on the feet before throwing a bad kick and getting caught.

I give the power advantage to Trevin but I think Bautista will be a lot faster. I see Mario getting in and out of range mixing in kicks and straight shots while a frustrated Jones whiffs on heavy counter shots.

I think Mario is a talented prospect, he had a competitive fight with Sandhagen who has some of the best movement in the division up until he got subbed. Smart guy too, he actually used the same jump knee that Sandhagen hit him with to score a knockdown and get a TKO in his last fight. Jones might land a bomb and get the KO but I think Mario's distance management will dictate the fight.
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I kind of read it the same way, but Trevin looks so much bigger to me. He looks like he cuts down from 160lb while Mario will be 140 or 145lb fight night. I think Trevin will come in 15 to 20lb heavier and will use his wrestling to hold Mario down. But i never know what is in these fighters heads and what strategy they are going to deploy. He did takedown Tamir with a double leg TD outer leg sweep.

Mario also coming in on like 17-20 days notice. I hate creating multiple parlays , but i feel like this could be a close 50/50
 
Kazda1 said:
Anyone other than myself feel like Adesanya falls here?
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It could happen. Jan hits hard enough. But there will be a significant speed difference imo. I think Israel finishes him rd 4-5.
BUT Jan hits way harder and has that weird dead man's rope shit going on so.
 
guidi said:
I am on Cruz at + money too, he didn't look great against Cejudo but I still think he has enough to pick Kenney apart at distance and win a decision. This is a massive step up in competition for Kenney will be interesting to see how he handles it
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agreed here. Huge step up in competition for Kenney. I don't think Kenney can outpoint Cruz or catch him with a KO shot. I see a long and annoying 3 round decision win for Cruz.
 
Sono07 said:
What's going to stop Rakic from wrestle fucking Santos the same way he did Smith or Glover did to Santos? Smith actually has a solid ground game and Rakic dominated him. I doubt Santos's ground game has improved post knee replacements either. I like Santos more on the feet but if Rakic gets him down I think it's over.
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Very valid observation. I know Santos has a black belt in BJJ but I don't recall ever seeing him putting his grappling skills on display.

Santos was a destroyer before his injuries. I guess this fight will be the telltale sign as to where he's at. Rakic did what he needed to against Smith, but Smith was coming off a life-changing beating at the hands of Glover. I know what Santos's ceiling is. Still not sure what Rakic's is. For decent underdog odds on Santos I'm willing to find out.

As a fan I'm rooting for Rakic to keep improving but as a gambler I have a lot of questions lol.
 
OuterDrake said:
I kind of read it the same way, but Trevin looks so much bigger to me. He looks like he cuts down from 160lb while Mario will be 140 or 145lb fight night. I think Trevin will come in 15 to 20lb heavier and will use his wrestling to hold Mario down. But i never know what is in these fighters heads and what strategy they are going to deploy. He did takedown Tamir with a double leg TD outer leg sweep.

Mario also coming in on like 17-20 days notice. I hate creating multiple parlays , but i feel like this could be a close 50/50
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I wouldn't worry about Mario being on short notice, he is in killer shape. If Jones has a big weight cut to make 135 it may affect his cardio as well. I doubt Trevin uses a lay and pray gameplan, if he even has the cardio to. It seems like the fighters in the lower weight classes are alot harder to hold down and much more active with their scrambles, I don't think Mario is any exception. Bautista also trains with Casey Kenny who is a good wrestler in his own right.

I don't see much if anything that Trevin does better and I wouldn't be surprised if Mario is the better grappler overall. I think Jones was just brought into the UFC to provide a favorable match up for his last opponent Timur. He was a 4 to 1 dog in that fight and the price looked about right until Timur got sloppy with his kicks and got caught. I think Mario fights like a more calculated Timur and I see him comfortably winning a decision maybe even setting up another KO.

 
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SolarSeiko said:
It could happen. Jan hits hard enough. But there will be a significant speed difference imo. I think Israel finishes him rd 4-5.
BUT Jan hits way harder and has that weird dead man's rope shit going on so.
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I was watching Boxing on Saturday morning of the Parker vs Fa fight in New Zealand. Israel was at the fight and shown on TV. Red flag to me that he has less than a week to get to the US and adjust to the time zone. The cut is irrelevant as Israel isn’t cutting for this fight.
 
Brockstar said:
I was watching Boxing on Saturday morning of the Parker vs Fa fight in New Zealand. Israel was at the fight and shown on TV. Red flag to me that he has less than a week to get to the US and adjust to the time zone. The cut is irrelevant as Israel isn’t cutting for this fight.
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so what you're saying is to bet the draw. <{cum@me}>

the more i watch Jan's recent fights the more I'm starting to think maybe he wins if they have an exchange. The same exchanges Izzy and Bobby had. Jan only needs to land 1 punch to rock Izzy hard enough to finish him. Maybe Jan's only shot is to really bully Izzy and force an exchange, otherwise Izzy's going to pull a Romero fight and just wait and counter and point fight from the outside?

Jan didn't even wind up on Dominic in their fight. There was barely any hip rotation and Jan scrambled his brains with the left hand.
 
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Sono07 said:
Why is that? Elliott's chin held up to Figueiredo's power shots much, much better than Joey's did. Closest Fig came to putting Elliot out was holding onto a choke too long. Benavidez getting absolutely murdered twice last year is enough reason for me to see why Askar is the favorite.

I don't see how anyone can have faith in Joey after those last 2 fights. He is pretty old for a 125er too. He went into that second Fig fight still suffering concussion symptoms from the first. It showed too, he was getting dropped by nearly every shot. For my money I'll take the young, hungry, undefeated russian rather than taking a chance that Joey shows up any less shopworn than he has recently. Anyone betting on Joey is putting alot more stock in his record than his recent performances.
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I don’t see askarov as a big puncher at all. He’s not really a good striker tbh. His thing is grappling and I really don’t think he has a advantage over benavidez there.

benavidez has the power, speed, movement and cardio advantage. Getting dusted by fig a few times doesn’t concern me too much.

Benavidez has only lost to the elite of the division, barring a split to Sergio Pettis.
 
who do we think is better, Ortiz or Askarov? Right before they cut Ortiz he started to KO people, has always had great wrestling and cardio. Also beat Pantoja who didn't gass himself in the first over a guiltone attempt.

Benevidez lost the second to a grinding gameplan but he came back and won the third with his own takedowns and control.
He had 6 takedowns over Dustins 3. In my opinion Otiz is a much tougher out when it comes to pure wrestling and cardio and even power
 
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Maybe I've been a little hard on Joey but I won't be surprised if he is on the decline, I might just have to pass on that one. After watching some more tape I think my favorite plays are Medic and Bautista. Uros kinda gives me Giga Chikadze vibes I guess they have a bit in common.

Former kickboxers and current Kings MMA guys training with some solid strikers like Dariush, Vettori and Kelvin. I think Aalon is just too slow and not fluid enough. Cruz has a big reach advantage but Medic is going to be the much more mobile guy. I think Medic works his way in the pocket breaks Aalon for a KO/tko win.
 
SolarSeiko said:
It could happen. Jan hits hard enough. But there will be a significant speed difference imo. I think Israel finishes him rd 4-5.
BUT Jan hits way harder and has that weird dead man's rope shit going on so.
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Its not so much all of that, it's that Jan has more paths to victory. What about if he just walls and stalls or just somehow lays on Izzy? To be undefeated for as long as Izzy has at the top level requires some long term game that is almost unbeatable. This isnt Khabib here. I think Adesanya almost caught a loss in the Vettori fight. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jan make this a fight where it's evident weight classes exist for a reason.
 
Ulberg is an easy maxbet, legit kickboxer from a team that's consistently produced high level strikers with good TDD and they've given him a guy that got beaten up standing by Paul Craig. -2xx is a gift.
 
Sono07 said:
Maybe I've been a little hard on Joey but I won't be surprised if he is on the decline, I might just have to pass on that one. After watching some more tape I think my favorite plays are Medic and Bautista. Uros kinda gives me Giga Chikadze vibes I guess they have a bit in common.

Former kickboxers and current Kings MMA guys training with some solid strikers like Dariush, Vettori and Kelvin. I think Aalon is just too slow and not fluid enough. Cruz has a big reach advantage but Medic is going to be the much more mobile guy. I think Medic works his way in the pocket breaks Aalon for a KO/tko win.
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I wouldn’t touch Medic, his opponents record is 90% negative. His last opponent was also padded with bad record fighters . I like to refer to these guys as level one grade beaters. His ground game is also very basic , i saw a guy who was 1-6 hold him down for 3 mins. Aalon on the other hand has a win on Steve Garcia 11-4 who holds a win on Ronnie lawence , he got several sub wins too, i think as a favorite medic has too many holes to be considered.
 
Santos is a happy meal black belt but Rakic is no wrestler, fight will be in stand up
 
Look, I'm going to make this simple.

Santos has absolute dogshit TDD. The reason I was on the Glover train was watching his last 4 fights, even Anders was literally able to take him down at will completely gassed in the 3rd and even take his back.

Santos cardio is also awful, he's getting older, and the ACL tear will only hurt his TDD.

Rakic implements leg kicks well, has ragdolled fighters that are harder to take down than Santos, and is in his prime.

I bet on Santos vs Jones, and in many other spots.

He gets wrestlefucked, and depending on how bad he gasses, possibly finished in this one.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Santos is a happy meal black belt but Rakic is no wrestler, fight will be in stand up
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Are we still acting like Rakic didn’t lay on Smith for a couple of rounds after kicking his leg to bolivian?

I think he’ll do whatever it takes to win and the safest (and smartest) way would be grappling with Santos. Santos’ grappling isn’t awful, but at this level it’s a weakness.
 
OuterDrake said:
I wouldn’t touch Medic, his opponents record is 90% negative. His last opponent was also padded with bad record fighters . I like to refer to these guys as level one grade beaters. His ground game is also very basic , i saw a guy who was 1-6 hold him down for 3 mins. Aalon on the other hand has a win on Steve Garcia 11-4 who holds a win on Ronnie lawence , he got several sub wins too, i think as a favorite medic has too many holes to be considered.
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Medic has only fought cans in mma but he is crushing them quick like he is supposed to. I think his kickboxing background adds value. The switch to Kings MMA should be just what Medic needed to round out his mma game. I can't find his record but I'll copy some info I did find. I think his combat sports experience goes a bit deeper than the regional cans he has been crushing.

"former Kickboxing Champion of Serbia, European Championship k1 Medalist (lignano Sabiadorro, Italy) World Cup belgrade/Serbia Open medalist, Alaska State Champion in Grappling, 5 times Champion of Vojvodina in low kick, k1, full contact (province of Serbia) fighting out of anchorage brazilian jiu jitsu"

Aalon has 2 sub wins one over a 1-3 can and the other over Steve Garcia. I'm not impressed by Garcia or Cruz honestly, Garcia has a terrible ground game. I was at the Fig vs Joey 1 fight card when both men made their debut and it was not a good look for either.

Garcia got back packed most of his fight and Cruz had his head played like a bongo drum by former ufc fighter Spyke Carlyle early. I wouldn't expect much grappling out of Aalon, his one UFC TD attempt ended in him being finished. Personally I think we see a kickboxing match and I think Medic is the much more experienced kickboxer.
 
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