UFC 259: Blachowicz vs Adesanya

[Oblivian]

I like this card for betting, but I hate making bets this early with cancellations. I really like plays on Benavidez, Cruz, Santos, and Bontorin. Going to wait on the rest, but couldn't pass on those in case odds change.

 

[svmr_db]

I like this card for betting, but I hate making bets this early with cancellations. I really like plays on Benavidez, Cruz, Santos, and Bontorin. Going to wait on the rest, but couldn't pass on those in case odds change.

What's your reasoning behind the Santos pick? As others have said, he's gotten so snapped up with injuries in recent years and he's also getting closer to being 40 years old. Doesn't bode well given his style revolves around being explosive.

 

[Oblivian]

What's your reasoning behind the Santos pick? As others have said, he's gotten so snapped up with injuries in recent years and he's also getting closer to being 40 years old. Doesn't bode well given his style revolves around being explosive.

This will probably be a standup fight that could get ugly. I think he's being undervalued after the Glover fight which is a completely different stylistic matchup. Santos has done solid against strikers. He's really only had issues with grapplers. I personally don't think Rakic looked good against Volkan.

 

[DonQ94]

This will probably be a standup fight that could get ugly. I think he's being undervalued after the Glover fight which is a completely different stylistic matchup. Santos has done solid against strikers. He's really only had issues with grapplers. I personally don't think Rakic looked good against Volkan.

You don't think Rakic will be able to grapplefuck Santos like he did Smith?

 

[Oblivian]

You don't think Rakic will be able to grapplefuck Santos like he did Smith?

I don't think it's very likely. I'd have to rewatch, but I think literally every takedown was initiated by Smith trying to get a takedown or body lock and then being put to the ground. It wasn't like Rakic was very offensive, and Smith wasn't great at trying to get back up either. He likes to fish for subs from bottom, but I think his leg was so fucked. What I'm looking for is the fight to look similar to how it does at the start. Just trading kicks and strikes, and then I think Santos can make it a war.

 

[Sono07]

Rakic saying he trained briefly with Thiago in 2018 at ATT. No mma sparring but apparently they have grappled together before. I'm probably reading too much into the interview but Rakic sounds confident in his grappling abilities. In regards to the grappling he says "I know how he feels" almost sounds like he stops before saying I know what's going to happen.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Medic has only fought cans in mma but he is crushing them quick like he is supposed to. I think his kickboxing background adds value. The switch to Kings MMA should be just what Medic needed to round out his mma game. I can't find his record but I'll copy some info I did find. I think his combat sports experience goes a bit deeper than the regional cans he has been crushing.

"former Kickboxing Champion of Serbia, European Championship k1 Medalist (lignano Sabiadorro, Italy) World Cup belgrade/Serbia Open medalist, Alaska State Champion in Grappling, 5 times Champion of Vojvodina in low kick, k1, full contact (province of Serbia) fighting out of anchorage brazilian jiu jitsu"

Aalon has 2 sub wins one over a 1-3 can and the other over Steve Garcia. I'm not impressed by Garcia or Cruz honestly, Garcia has a terrible ground game. I was at the Fig vs Joey 1 fight card when both men made their debut and it was not a good look for either.


Garcia got back packed most of his fight and Cruz had his head played like a bongo drum by former ufc fighter Spyke Carlyle early. I wouldn't expect much grappling out of Aalon, his one UFC TD attempt ended in him being finished. Personally I think we see a kickboxing match and I think Medic is the much more experienced kickboxer.

The grappling in Alaska is not that competitive as other states like California. we saw mazo get dominated on the ground by Davis for 8 mins, and she was a Colombian state champ.

Aalon was a hs wrestler and did one year in college and has a purple belt.


I don't see why Cruz cant do the same as these guys who are low regional. They took him down with ease. Medic may have solid jiujitsu but I question his tdd and transitional wrestling.

 

[Sono07]

The grappling in Alaska is not that competitive as other states like California. we saw mazo get dominated on the ground by Davis for 8 mins, and she was a Colombian state champ.

Aalon was a hs wrestler and did one year in college and has a purple belt.


I don't see why Cruz cant do the same as these guys who are low regional. They took him down with ease. Medic may have solid jiujitsu but I question his tdd and transitional wrestling.

I wouldn't count on his ground game staying the exact same as it was 3 years ago. True I don't really rate the Alaskan grappling scene but his Serbian kickboxing pedigree caught my eye.

Alaska may not have many good grapplers but the same can not be said for Kings MMA. Dariush, Gastelum, and Vettori are all some of the best transition grapplers in their divisions and on a much higher level than Cruz. I believe Vettori will actually be in Medic's corner for this fight. I can't imagine he is spending time with high caliber UFC fighters without working on his ground game. I think we see big improvements in his wrestling the same as we have seen from fellow kickboxing transplant Giga Chikadze.

Aalon's selling point is being a rangey striker and a 145er with the reach of a 205er. I don't think he will be able to use his reach here and I've seen nothing to suggest he can pull off a grappling heavy offense.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Its not so much all of that, it's that Jan has more paths to victory. What about if he just walls and stalls or just somehow lays on Izzy? To be undefeated for as long as Izzy has at the top level requires some long term game that is almost unbeatable. This isnt Khabib here. I think Adesanya almost caught a loss in the Vettori fight. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jan make this a fight where it's evident weight classes exist for a reason.

I would be curious HOW Jan would wall stall him It's going to look like the Romero fight in the sense that Izzy isn't going to risk exchanges like he did with Kelvin. Izzy won't try to engage unless he thinks he can get away with the speed difference. Romero was as fast or maybe faster than him. Jan would need to corner Izzy, force a clinch and wall stall. I don't think thats likely imo.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I wouldn't count on his ground game staying the exact same as it was 3 years ago. True I don't really rate the Alaskan grappling scene but his Serbian kickboxing pedigree caught my eye.

I wouldn't count on his ground game staying the exact same as it was 3 years ago. True I don't really rate the Alaskan grappling scene but his Serbian kickboxing pedigree caught my eye.

Alaska may not have many good grapplers but the same can not be said for Kings MMA. Dariush, Gastelum, and Vettori are all some of the best transition grapplers in their divisions and on a much higher level than Cruz. I believe Vettori will actually be in Medic's corner for this fight. I can't imagine he is spending time with high caliber UFC fighters without working on his ground game. I think we see big improvements in his wrestling the same as we have seen from fellow kickboxing transplant Giga Chikadze.

Aalon's selling point is being a rangey striker and a 145er with the reach of a 205er. I don't think he will be able to use his reach here and I've seen nothing to suggest he can pull off a grappling heavy offense.

Cruz also change camps to xtreme couture and tenth planet, mentioning sparring Neil Magney and Erosa. I’m not doubting Medic can win this but lately we’ve seen so many good strikers with bjj fall to wrestling. Danny Chavez vs Jared Gordon , Mazo vs Davis and Giga Chizadze lost his ufc debut to a wrestler. When ever i see a good striker now I automatically think they suck at wrestling. Its like a form of ptsd. Guess im gonna switch now to more grappler favorite fighters for now to see if i get different results.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Rakic saying he trained briefly with Thiago in 2018 at ATT. No mma sparring but apparently they have grappled together before. I'm probably reading too much into the interview but Rakic sounds confident in his grappling abilities. In regards to the grappling he says "I know how he feels" almost sounds like he stops before saying I know what's going to happen.

I'm hoping for a boring decision here. Santos on a 2 fight losing skid and NEEDS a win. I think hes bullshiting about being "violence" and he's gonna play it safe. Rakic via decision is +187.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Anderson is a dead woman walking, no? Thinking Nunes SUB +200 is crazy. Figure Anderson gets her legs blasted and subbed. She grapples like a fish in the Outback. The desert land not the steakhouse. Mmmmmm I could go for a bloomin' onion though. "No rules. Just right" bullshit. They charge for extra sauce with the onion.

 

[sonhow]

Cruz is only 35. Feels like his first title run was a decade ago (and it actually was). He's just so inactive you might not realize if the big fall already happened for him.

 

[Jordan3399]

Look, I'm going to make this simple.

Santos has absolute dogshit TDD. The reason I was on the Glover train was watching his last 4 fights, even Anders was literally able to take him down at will completely gassed in the 3rd and even take his back.

Santos cardio is also awful, he's getting older, and the ACL tear will only hurt his TDD.

Rakic implements leg kicks well, has ragdolled fighters that are harder to take down than Santos, and is in his prime.

I bet on Santos vs Jones, and in many other spots.

He gets wrestlefucked, and depending on how bad he gasses, possibly finished in this one.

Santos cardio is awful? If anything he's shown elite cardio given his style. He can go a hard 15 minutes easily.

People have a very weird perception of Santos now, his TDD was never amazing but always alright and he wasn't useless off his back like Ledet and Smith. The only time he showed poor TDD was vs Glover where he got takendown cause he had Glover hurt and kept striking Glover trying to get the KO rather than stuffing the shot. Thats poor fight IQ more than anything.

And just to remind everyone that Rakic has outgrappled Ledet, a shitty boxer, and Anthony Smith who is a turtle off his back. That is it, neither means much. Grapplers like GM3 and Hermansson got smashed by Santos.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Santos cardio is awful? If anything he's shown elite cardio given his style. He can go a hard 15 minutes easily.

People have a very weird perception of Santos now, his TDD was never amazing but always alright and he wasn't useless off his back like Ledet and Smith. The only time he showed poor TDD was vs Glover where he got takendown cause he had Glover hurt and kept striking Glover trying to get the KO rather than stuffing the shot. Thats poor fight IQ more than anything.

And just to remind everyone that Rakic has outgrappled Ledet, a shitty boxer, and Anthony Smith who is a turtle off his back. That is it, neither means much. Grapplers like GM3 and Hermansson got smashed by Santos.

Comparing GM3 to Rakic is honestly comical.

Hermansson is a natural MW, as is Santos, and those fights were years ago when he was in his prime.

He's 36 now with a bum ACL.

Go watch the Anders fight, and tell me his TDD isn't awful, and that his, "cardio holds up for 15 minutes".

 

[SerbBerserk]

With Aalon vs Medic, the thing is that Medic, in all likehood has way better striking then Cruz does grappling. Medic may very well become one of the elite strikers at LW as long as his grappling holds up, considering his size and kickboxing backround. By contrast, I just don't see anything thats really all that high level from Cruz at all, espechially his striking.

 

[aerius]

You don't think he looked bad vs cejudo? I think he looked rather slow (compared to his dilashaw fight), and I lost count how many leg kicks he absorbed, must have been over 20. He barely landed anything in the 1st round. In the 2nd round he had a bit of success with just brawling, but he was still getting outstruck. My overall impression is that Cruz is a very diminished version of his old self. A much slower version without his characteristic footwork. He also seemed to have no answer for the leg kicks and Kenney is quite good at that imo. Still Cruz might win comfortably here, if he can get some takedowns going. It all depends on his wrestling imo.

Part of is Cruz not being what he was, but we also need to acknowledge that Cejudo is a damn good fighter and he did something cool that no one else has really done to Cruz. The low kicks were part of it, but a big key to Cejudo's success was how he constantly changed between pressuring and fighting on the counter to keep Cruz off-balance. He'd pressure Cruz towards the fence and whack him with low kicks, then back off and let Cruz come after him, then suddenly go back to pressuring and hit him with more punches & kicks. This allowed him to crash the distance and find openings rather than constantly chasing after Cruz and missing everything like most other fighters.

I don't think I've seen any of Kenney's fights so I don't know if he has those skills.

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Rakic hurts PTSD Smith with leg kicks then lays on him for 3 rounds and Santos get outgrappled by the best grappler in the division and people think that means Rakic will grapple fuck Santos.

Gotta love some of the logic here.

 

[Sono07]

I think I got Kenndy Nzechukwu confused with power puncher Tafon Nchukwi. Dana getting sneaky with the roster. Me trying to remember Kennedy's last fight, oh this is where polish Brock Lesnar groin kicks 205 Marcie Greene 1000 times.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

@Invictis any leans to Kai Kara vs Bontorin?