I'm big on Luque(as a fighter) and Woodley has looked like dogshit, but Woodley has only faced people that have taken him down and held him down recently.
To play devil's advocate, Luque wont take him down. He's going to look to bang with him, and Tyrone could implement leg kicks, and even get takedowns of his own.
If he actually makes Luque think about the TD threat, implements leg kicks, and lets his hands go, it's a very winnable fight for him. That's a big IF though. I don't think we've seen Woodley offensively wrestle since the WB fights. He's said himself it gasses him out.
I don't think I'm going to play Woodley, unless he gets to +3xx, but as tough as Luque is, Woodley matches up better with him than he has any of his past 3 opponents.
As for the main event. I love Stipe, I had DC @ +220 in their first fight, and I took Stipe in their 2nd and 3rd fights @ like +120 or so. I also had Stipe in his first fight vs Ngannou.
Ngannou was green as fuck when they first fought. And I know that we haven't seen more than like 3 minutes of him in his fights since then(aside from the Lewis fight which I wont even count). But to think that he hasn't improved his cardio and ground game at least a little bit would be naive.
Stipe, despite his win in his last fight, didn't look as good as usual. He slowed down in the later rounds, and couldn't finish a concussed DC with one eye.
I think Francis is a bit more patient this fight, and feels out the fight a bit more before unleashing barrages that leave him susceptible to TD's.
Stipe is 39 in less than 6 months. That's old for HW. His chin will not be as good as it was when he first fought Ngannou. If Francis lands on him like he did in their first fight, I just simply don't think Stipe will be able to absorb those shots.
Francis also changed gyms since their first fight, and shouldn't panic and gas as fast as he did in their first fight if he gets taken down. He was like a fish out of water there, he didn't expect Stipe to wrestle him at all, so when he got taken down, he used all of his energy trying to get back up and couldn't.
I just think he learned a tremendous amount from that fight, and has been on the sidelines working on his cardio/wrestling for the past 3 and a half years. I'm not a Francis stan -- I bet on Rozenstruik to beat him(lol).
But I've been backing Stipe a lot recently as I said, and I think this is the fight where his age finally shows. It showed a bit in his last fight, but DC just looked like complete dogshit, mainly because he's old with back problems and his cardio was fucking awful.
Just incoherent midnight thoughts, I'll watch more tape and break it down further this week as the event approaches. But right now, pre tape, I have a strong lean on Francis. I've seen Stipe/DC 2 a dozen times, I need to rewatch their 3rd fight a few more times. There's actually not many fights to tape for this one -- all of Ngannou's victories have been like 2 minutes long, and Stipe has only fought the same opponent 3 times since their last fight.
So my prediction right now is Francis rd 1/2 KO.