UFC 260: Stipe vs Ngannou 2
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Woodley about to lose 18 rounds straight.
D
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I'm big on Luque(as a fighter) and Woodley has looked like dogshit, but Woodley has only faced people that have taken him down and held him down recently.
To play devil's advocate, Luque wont take him down. He's going to look to bang with him, and Tyrone could implement leg kicks, and even get takedowns of his own.
If he actually makes Luque think about the TD threat, implements leg kicks, and lets his hands go, it's a very winnable fight for him. That's a big IF though. I don't think we've seen Woodley offensively wrestle since the WB fights. He's said himself it gasses him out.
I don't think I'm going to play Woodley, unless he gets to +3xx, but as tough as Luque is, Woodley matches up better with him than he has any of his past 3 opponents.
As for the main event. I love Stipe, I had DC @ +220 in their first fight, and I took Stipe in their 2nd and 3rd fights @ like +120 or so. I also had Stipe in his first fight vs Ngannou.
Ngannou was green as fuck when they first fought. And I know that we haven't seen more than like 3 minutes of him in his fights since then(aside from the Lewis fight which I wont even count). But to think that he hasn't improved his cardio and ground game at least a little bit would be naive.
Stipe, despite his win in his last fight, didn't look as good as usual. He slowed down in the later rounds, and couldn't finish a concussed DC with one eye.
I think Francis is a bit more patient this fight, and feels out the fight a bit more before unleashing barrages that leave him susceptible to TD's.
Stipe is 39 in less than 6 months. That's old for HW. His chin will not be as good as it was when he first fought Ngannou. If Francis lands on him like he did in their first fight, I just simply don't think Stipe will be able to absorb those shots.
Francis also changed gyms since their first fight, and shouldn't panic and gas as fast as he did in their first fight if he gets taken down. He was like a fish out of water there, he didn't expect Stipe to wrestle him at all, so when he got taken down, he used all of his energy trying to get back up and couldn't.
I just think he learned a tremendous amount from that fight, and has been on the sidelines working on his cardio/wrestling for the past 3 and a half years. I'm not a Francis stan -- I bet on Rozenstruik to beat him(lol).
But I've been backing Stipe a lot recently as I said, and I think this is the fight where his age finally shows. It showed a bit in his last fight, but DC just looked like complete dogshit, mainly because he's old with back problems and his cardio was fucking awful.
Just incoherent midnight thoughts, I'll watch more tape and break it down further this week as the event approaches. But right now, pre tape, I have a strong lean on Francis. I've seen Stipe/DC 2 a dozen times, I need to rewatch their 3rd fight a few more times. There's actually not many fights to tape for this one -- all of Ngannou's victories have been like 2 minutes long, and Stipe has only fought the same opponent 3 times since their last fight.
So my prediction right now is Francis rd 1/2 KO.
To play devil's advocate, Luque wont take him down. He's going to look to bang with him, and Tyrone could implement leg kicks, and even get takedowns of his own.
If he actually makes Luque think about the TD threat, implements leg kicks, and lets his hands go, it's a very winnable fight for him. That's a big IF though. I don't think we've seen Woodley offensively wrestle since the WB fights. He's said himself it gasses him out.
I don't think I'm going to play Woodley, unless he gets to +3xx, but as tough as Luque is, Woodley matches up better with him than he has any of his past 3 opponents.
As for the main event. I love Stipe, I had DC @ +220 in their first fight, and I took Stipe in their 2nd and 3rd fights @ like +120 or so. I also had Stipe in his first fight vs Ngannou.
Ngannou was green as fuck when they first fought. And I know that we haven't seen more than like 3 minutes of him in his fights since then(aside from the Lewis fight which I wont even count). But to think that he hasn't improved his cardio and ground game at least a little bit would be naive.
Stipe, despite his win in his last fight, didn't look as good as usual. He slowed down in the later rounds, and couldn't finish a concussed DC with one eye.
I think Francis is a bit more patient this fight, and feels out the fight a bit more before unleashing barrages that leave him susceptible to TD's.
Stipe is 39 in less than 6 months. That's old for HW. His chin will not be as good as it was when he first fought Ngannou. If Francis lands on him like he did in their first fight, I just simply don't think Stipe will be able to absorb those shots.
Francis also changed gyms since their first fight, and shouldn't panic and gas as fast as he did in their first fight if he gets taken down. He was like a fish out of water there, he didn't expect Stipe to wrestle him at all, so when he got taken down, he used all of his energy trying to get back up and couldn't.
I just think he learned a tremendous amount from that fight, and has been on the sidelines working on his cardio/wrestling for the past 3 and a half years. I'm not a Francis stan -- I bet on Rozenstruik to beat him(lol).
But I've been backing Stipe a lot recently as I said, and I think this is the fight where his age finally shows. It showed a bit in his last fight, but DC just looked like complete dogshit, mainly because he's old with back problems and his cardio was fucking awful.
Just incoherent midnight thoughts, I'll watch more tape and break it down further this week as the event approaches. But right now, pre tape, I have a strong lean on Francis. I've seen Stipe/DC 2 a dozen times, I need to rewatch their 3rd fight a few more times. There's actually not many fights to tape for this one -- all of Ngannou's victories have been like 2 minutes long, and Stipe has only fought the same opponent 3 times since their last fight.
So my prediction right now is Francis rd 1/2 KO.
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Stipe going to sleepe
Woodley at +235 in a 3 rounder
Woodley at +235 in a 3 rounder
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Stipe is sleeping. He got away with a few bombs from Francis in their first fight, he’s older and has been KOed since then
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Does anyone think Almeida has a shot VS O'Malley? I feel like O'Malley is getting a lot of love in this line for a guy coming off a bad loss. Almeida was once touted like Sugar is. O'Malley isn't Font or Cody G who KO'd Almeida.
Also, I have no idea about Abu Azatair, but am sold on his LW brother. If he's anywhere near as good as his brother, Marc Andre Barriault could be in some trouble. Barriault is your classic gritty all arounder, but if this ends up as a striking fight and Abu is as gifted as his bro, he should take Barriault out
Also, I have no idea about Abu Azatair, but am sold on his LW brother. If he's anywhere near as good as his brother, Marc Andre Barriault could be in some trouble. Barriault is your classic gritty all arounder, but if this ends up as a striking fight and Abu is as gifted as his bro, he should take Barriault out
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To be fair, the circumstances surrounding O'Malley's loss were unusual.
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Not sure if it has been brought up yet but this being at the Apex is probably terrible for Stipe. Not always a factor but the small cage might take away alot of the move out of Stipe's stick and move boxing.
I think it all comes down to the TD's here. Ngannou could looks like a toddler flailing around with two grenades in a ball pit here technique and distance wise but still. If Stipe can't keep his distance or get to Francis and pin down the explosion early it might get messy.
Francis working with Usman (I believe he is corning predator here) is a great sign too. Huge powerful, slow plodding footwork and an excellent understanding of wrestling, great mentor in this match as the 170 champ has been looking amazing lately as well.
Personally I think Stipe needs to wrestle like his life depends on it. Not sure if he has the gas for that anymore either. Gotta be leg attacks too Francis is significantly stronger in the clinch than most HW's at least early on. Even then after seeing what Lewis did to Blaydes, Ngannou has probably been perfecting his uppercuts.
I probably would have lost of Francis the first time (didn't bet that one) I still can't consider Stipe here though even being the better fighter. Ngannou has level of fuck you power that everyone in mma envies. Wrestling is a great base and deciding where the fight goes is a huge advantage but may not be enough here. Being able to end a fight with any exchange is a scary factor and not one I'm willing to bet against here. Whenever I see Big Frank and his KO line around even or plus money I'd say it value. He is pretty predictable but the guy probably drop am elephant with the right shot and Stipe isn't impossible to hit.
I think it all comes down to the TD's here. Ngannou could looks like a toddler flailing around with two grenades in a ball pit here technique and distance wise but still. If Stipe can't keep his distance or get to Francis and pin down the explosion early it might get messy.
Francis working with Usman (I believe he is corning predator here) is a great sign too. Huge powerful, slow plodding footwork and an excellent understanding of wrestling, great mentor in this match as the 170 champ has been looking amazing lately as well.
Personally I think Stipe needs to wrestle like his life depends on it. Not sure if he has the gas for that anymore either. Gotta be leg attacks too Francis is significantly stronger in the clinch than most HW's at least early on. Even then after seeing what Lewis did to Blaydes, Ngannou has probably been perfecting his uppercuts.
I probably would have lost of Francis the first time (didn't bet that one) I still can't consider Stipe here though even being the better fighter. Ngannou has level of fuck you power that everyone in mma envies. Wrestling is a great base and deciding where the fight goes is a huge advantage but may not be enough here. Being able to end a fight with any exchange is a scary factor and not one I'm willing to bet against here. Whenever I see Big Frank and his KO line around even or plus money I'd say it value. He is pretty predictable but the guy probably drop am elephant with the right shot and Stipe isn't impossible to hit.
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OMalley makes a much better hammer than a nail. He has had 2 or 3 fights now where he sustains an injury or his durability comes into question. Great striker but if he isn't the one applying pressure I think the wheels could fall off. Not sure if Thomas can bring that pressure but still O'malley has a much greater ability to land strikes than he has to take them. No reason the new calf kick meta doesn't work on him. Even the terrible Jesse Stader had small success with it against the much more rangey Montel last night.
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Early prelims start around 6.15 p.m. ET
Prelims start 8 p.m. ET
Main card starts 10 p.m. ET
UFC 260
Saturday, March 27, Las Vegas
parlay +345
Miranda Maverick -155 "Fear The", age 23
Sean O'Malley -290, age 26
Abubakar Nurmagomedov -225, age 31
Vicente Luque -255 "Assassin", age 29
Some words I found:
Abubakar Nurmagomedov, 170 pounds, has a background in combat sambo and he’s shown to be well rounded in MMA. It’s no surprise that the Dagestanian is more comfortable on the mat. With that said he’s no slouch at all standing. Nurmagomedov throws a lot of volume and it comes with excellent combinations from different angles. He has a nice uppercut he throws at times to start his combos. Good at sticking to his fundamentals, he has a solid jab and will kick to maintain the pace. Does a solid job staying mobile in fights, circling to the right and left, and switching stances frequently. When he attempts to close the distance for a take down... he masks it well. Nurmagomedov is a pro at striking his way into a takedown disguising his shots behind strikes. On top, at times he does need to be a bit more active but is always in control. Very Khabib-like, Abubakar will tie up an arm and let go with some constant ground and pound. He’s skilled in jiu-jitsu as well, though it doesn’t necessarily show on his record with only three submissions wins. Being so heavy on top he’s content on riding out any position and landing punches. If his opponent does attempt to create space Nurmagomedov can very easily take the back.
Miranda Maverick: Compared to when first started her pro career, she’s come a long way. On the feet she is getting better. She throws well in bursts and more and more is starting to kick the leg. She does get walked down fairly easily and will throw naked kicks with her hands low. Her movement has improved but her head still is very stationary.
While Maverick is improving, just about any good striker in the UFC will probably pick her apart. She’s a better grappler, but I’m not sold on her wrestling. Maverick relies on her strength to just pull girls down. She will grab a single leg but will a lot of times just lead headfirst to the mat which gives openings for her back being taken. She has been getting better at using trips and getting her hands together but more so relies on strength over technique.
On the mat, she is very strong on top and will dominate the position up until she takes the back and sinks in the choke. Even off her back Maverick is a threat and she does find herself on her back often because her take down defense isn’t where it needs to be. Maverick will immediately throw her legs up and it really dangerous attacking the armbar. However, she may be less effective off her back in the UFC because there are better BJJ fighters. The best attribute Maverick has is youth.
Prelims start 8 p.m. ET
Main card starts 10 p.m. ET
UFC 260
Saturday, March 27, Las Vegas
parlay +345
Miranda Maverick -155 "Fear The", age 23
Sean O'Malley -290, age 26
Abubakar Nurmagomedov -225, age 31
Vicente Luque -255 "Assassin", age 29
Some words I found:
Abubakar Nurmagomedov, 170 pounds, has a background in combat sambo and he’s shown to be well rounded in MMA. It’s no surprise that the Dagestanian is more comfortable on the mat. With that said he’s no slouch at all standing. Nurmagomedov throws a lot of volume and it comes with excellent combinations from different angles. He has a nice uppercut he throws at times to start his combos. Good at sticking to his fundamentals, he has a solid jab and will kick to maintain the pace. Does a solid job staying mobile in fights, circling to the right and left, and switching stances frequently. When he attempts to close the distance for a take down... he masks it well. Nurmagomedov is a pro at striking his way into a takedown disguising his shots behind strikes. On top, at times he does need to be a bit more active but is always in control. Very Khabib-like, Abubakar will tie up an arm and let go with some constant ground and pound. He’s skilled in jiu-jitsu as well, though it doesn’t necessarily show on his record with only three submissions wins. Being so heavy on top he’s content on riding out any position and landing punches. If his opponent does attempt to create space Nurmagomedov can very easily take the back.
Miranda Maverick: Compared to when first started her pro career, she’s come a long way. On the feet she is getting better. She throws well in bursts and more and more is starting to kick the leg. She does get walked down fairly easily and will throw naked kicks with her hands low. Her movement has improved but her head still is very stationary.
While Maverick is improving, just about any good striker in the UFC will probably pick her apart. She’s a better grappler, but I’m not sold on her wrestling. Maverick relies on her strength to just pull girls down. She will grab a single leg but will a lot of times just lead headfirst to the mat which gives openings for her back being taken. She has been getting better at using trips and getting her hands together but more so relies on strength over technique.
On the mat, she is very strong on top and will dominate the position up until she takes the back and sinks in the choke. Even off her back Maverick is a threat and she does find herself on her back often because her take down defense isn’t where it needs to be. Maverick will immediately throw her legs up and it really dangerous attacking the armbar. However, she may be less effective off her back in the UFC because there are better BJJ fighters. The best attribute Maverick has is youth.
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O'Malley definitely has durability issues. But am I wrong for thinking that Vera's win over him was atleast slightly flukey?
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Not unusual for O'Mally, he's had 'leg issues' in several fights
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And just so people are aware -
Volkanovski/Ortega is off the card and also Shane Young/Omar Morales is off too
Most likely Mullarkey will be out of his fight also as he was in the same bubble as Volk and Young
Volkanovski/Ortega is off the card and also Shane Young/Omar Morales is off too
Most likely Mullarkey will be out of his fight also as he was in the same bubble as Volk and Young
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Hard to say, if I hadn't seen him have issues in the past I would agree but I think it's partly the hammer not the nail situation. A couple reasons I'll say it wasn't flukey. O'malley has had trouble with his legs before. Vera's gameplan involved a heavy leg attack and it only took one round to succeed. That and when Sean ended up on bottom he looked helpless.
I think what kills it for me is him rolling around like Peter Griffin grabbing his leg after the loss. Cejudo got hit with the same nerve shot and fought through it. Thiago Santos blew out both his legs and kept fighting. Hell even Macy Barber wore her damage better and limped out of the cage when she destroyed her knee, O'malley being carried out on a strecher was a very poor look to me. So far my read on him is that he is a very good striker who does not handle pressure well. He also seems more willing to make excuses than to adapt and make changes. Him acting like Vera didn't actually get a legit win is a poor look to me.
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I don't think so. I thought soukhamthat (or however its spelled) showed moronic fight IQ. He did the same thing vera did pretty much.
I like stipe.
I have nothing meaningful to add to this thread yet except I'm loving taping goldy/robbins right now. The amounts of glorious booty in that fight is greatly satisfying.
Carry on.
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Morales vs young is off
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Good points.
I still think the odds aren't crazy for O'Malley but I might just play the FDNGTD.
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I got stipe i dont think this rematch should be any different from his last fight with Ngannou.
Ngannou could Ko Stipe in round one though. I would problary bet and sparkle Ngannou's 1st round Ko.
Most Ngannou's are first rounders.
Ngannou could Ko Stipe in round one though. I would problary bet and sparkle Ngannou's 1st round Ko.
Most Ngannou's are first rounders.
