Watched a lot of tape for Barboza/Burgos because I thought it was this past weekend, and I don't see why Burgos is the favourite.
I think Barboza is being faded because of his recent record, even if you date it back to his 2017 fight with Khabib. He's 2-5 over that span, which in the eyes of many means, at the age of 34, he's done. Not to mention his recent drop down to the 145 lbs. division, where he lost his debut to Dan Ige and "only" won a decision over Amirkhani.
Dive into the record and the nuance tells a different story.
-Loss to Khabib. Well, yeah. The sports highest paced grappler put it on Barboza. While Burgos is a pressure fighter, he applies that pressure 100% differently than Khabib.
-Loss to Kevin Lee. Another high pressure grappler with some of the best wrestling in the division. Perhaps Kevin Lee's biggest win to date, he put a ground and pound clinic on Barboza. Took until the 5th round to finish it with a doctor's stoppage. Another unlikely method for Burgos to follow.
-Win vs Dan Hooker. Barboza beat the brakes off in a standup fight for the 2.5 rounds that it lasted. Became the first guy to finish Hooker.
-Loss vs Justin Gaethje: Gaethje chased Barboza down and blasted him. I think this is what people on the Burgos side are expecting him to do to Barboza. I don't think Burgos is on the same level as Gaethje, assume most would agree. This fight too had the eye poke incident, which, depending on your opinion, could have changed the results here (in my opinion, Gaethje's win was inevitable).
-Loss to Paul Felder. Myself, along with the vast majority of media and fans, thought Barboza won this mostly kickboxing fight.
-Loss to Dan Ige. Another close fight that the majority thought Barboza won. Barboza hurt Ige multiple times, Ige did not do the same.
-Win over Amirkhani. A mutual opponent Barboza and Burgos share. Although Burgos finished Amirkhani, Barboza looked a lot better in victory over him. Does it mean a lot? No, because Mr. Finland fights a style that isn't going to happen here. Both guys did fight him in a similar manner, however. Mr. Finland won the first round against Burgos with his grappling, but tired himself out in the process. Burgos finally finished off an exhausted Amirkhani late in Round 3. The commentary mentioned in the Barboza fight how Amirkhani had blown his weight cut for the Burgos fight, and it was definitely noticeable. He was able to take a beating (dropped twice by Barboza with punches) and managed to survive until the end, but was never in the fight.
Reasons I like Barboza, especially at even/plus odds:
-Barboza looks comfortable at 145. I was worried when he went down that he'd be one of those guys who lost his chin as he cut more weight. Does not seem to be the case. Mr. Finland landed a pretty decent punch in their fight, didn't phase him. Ige throws hard, but never hurt Barboza.
-Barboza hasn't lost his appetite for kicking. Still threw plenty against both Amirkhani and Ige, his most recent fights. Burgos is heavy on his lead leg and absorbs a lot of strikes. His power may be pretty high at 145, as he dropped Amirkhani 2x, and stung Ige with his hands.
-Burgos doesn't have huge power. His fighting style would significantly benefit if he had naturally big power. He just doesn't seem to be one of those guys. He's landed a lot of pretty big, clean shots in his wins, but his finishes come later in fights.
-Burogs has been dropped several times in his UFC career, including by Kurt Holobaugh. I don't think he has a "bad" chin by any means, but his fighting style is designed for a guy with an absolute granite chin and very heavy hands.
There's a lot of food for thought for everyone on this fight. I really like Barboza at even/dog odds, and I think you should too.
