UFC 262 Chandler vs Olivera

Feels like Burgos pressures Barboza all fight and considering judges always favor punches over kicks. Piedrita Cachoiera should over pressure and possibly finish Mazany while slow Mazany isn't anything special. Lots of close fights and odds wise which is great for this card
 
I had IT 29-28 Dariush, no way for 30-27
I think there is a strong bias for people giving rounds to guys who are losing but doing a bit better in a round than the previous round. You see that happening all the time where someone gets beaten comfortably for a whole round and then the next round is close and then the guy who was losing in the first round gets that second round in like 75% of the times.
 
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where did you find this info?

Most of the board's favorites so far.
chandler /oliveira split
edson
Dariush
muiniz


One interesting thing to note is Jacare is training at his local gym with locals and not at fusion x. he opened his own school and is mostly teaching. I think he is near retirement.


This is why I'm always hesitant to bet on an old guy like Jacare or Cerrone when they are coming to the ends of their careers but still probably making more per fight then they had at any point previous in their careers. Jacare is still probably making like 300k to show up and fight so it's worth it to just show up and lose then use that money to start a gym for his career after fighting.
 
This is why I'm always hesitant to bet on an old guy like Jacare or Cerrone when they are coming to the ends of their careers but still probably making more per fight then they had at any point previous in their careers. Jacare is still probably making like 300k to show up and fight so it's worth it to just show up and lose then use that money to start a gym for his career after fighting.
Thiago Santos was also doing that too. He was training at his local gym, looked like he did almost no sparring at all. Their focus is not on fighting but post career goals.



Juxta pose the last Souza photo with this photo of Andre, he is training with other upcomers and going hard for sure.

 
Thiago Santos was also doing that too. He was training at his local gym, looked like he did almost no sparring at all. Their focus is not on fighting but post career goals.



Juxta pose the last Souza photo with this photo of Andre, he is training with other upcomers and going hard for sure.


With that being said i went back and watched s couple Muniz fights, great jits but nothing else, will that jits be enough against a guy like Jacare? I think the safe bet is no bet for me.
 
With that being said i went back and watched s couple Muniz fights, great jits but nothing else, will that jits be enough against a guy like Jacare? I think the safe bet is no bet for me.
yah i agree.I think im passing on this fight too and going to include a safer bet from the next card into my parlay. they're too even, but Souza poses a threat with his striking but can also just get out worked by the younger guy. When i did the spread sheet, it came out near even. You have a young fighter who is going to be shaper but still behind on striking vs a guy who is more well rounded but may be very eroded. its nothing concrete, and i cant reach a solid conclusion.
 
I'm just gonna bet Cachoeira because that fight is gonna be a dumpster fire and I need something riding on it to be able to watch AND Mazany just went life and death with Rachel Ostovich why is she the biggest favourite on the card?
 
I'm just gonna bet Cachoeira because that fight is gonna be a dumpster fire and I need something riding on it to be able to watch AND Mazany just went life and death with Rachel Ostovich why is she the biggest favourite on the card?
She is over inflated but Cachoeira has one of the worst fight iq i've ever seen, she is like George foreman without the talent. She throws the most loaded predictable punches and follows her opponent in a straight line while not moving her head and eating shots like Rocky Balboa.
 
Have to think the Jac fight is just going to be terrible, lots of cage pushing and dropping to hips but not completing a takedown, lazy lay and pray whenever it does hit the mat
 
I'm just gonna bet Cachoeira because that fight is gonna be a dumpster fire and I need something riding on it to be able to watch AND Mazany just went life and death with Rachel Ostovich why is she the biggest favourite on the card?

I wouldn’t quite call that “life and death”. She won the first two rounds and then finished her in the third.
 
Chandler is in deep shit if you ask me. Oliveira is going to be champ for a long time and may even draw Khabib out of retirement.

Shame it got pushed back a week but Hermannson will facefuck Edmen.

Lots of recency bias against Tony here who has faced two monsters his last fights out. Dariush wouldn’t even be in the same conversation as Ferg a couple years ago. Maybe I’m wrong but I think the dude gets tied up like a pretzel or taken to school
 
Chandler is in deep shit if you ask me. Oliveira is going to be champ for a long time and may even draw Khabib out of retirement.

Shame it got pushed back a week but Hermannson will facefuck Edmen.

Lots of recency bias against Tony here who has faced two monsters his last fights out. Dariush wouldn’t even be in the same conversation as Ferg a couple years ago. Maybe I’m wrong but I think the dude gets tied up like a pretzel or taken to school

That’s a quite a leap for a guy who’s been finished as many times as Oliveira has.
 
For this event I have:
2 u Jamie Pickett (evens)
2u Lee (evens)
Huge on Dariush (1.65)
1u Chandler (2.10)
 
Chandler is in deep shit if you ask me. Oliveira is going to be champ for a long time and may even draw Khabib out of retirement.

Shame it got pushed back a week but Hermannson will facefuck Edmen.

Lots of recency bias against Tony here who has faced two monsters his last fights out. Dariush wouldn’t even be in the same conversation as Ferg a couple years ago. Maybe I’m wrong but I think the dude gets tied up like a pretzel or taken to school

I think your take on the Ferg - Dariush fight is way off. Sure Ferguson fought against two very good guys but in the Oliveira fight especially he looked so old and frail.
Historically Ferguson never had great takedown defense and has always been hittable anyway, his physical attributes and pressure were his main strengths. You make a case for Ferguson by actually referring to ''a couple years ago''
Dariush has dominated great BJJ players, so I don't see why he can't do the same against Ferguson. He's definitely not gonna get tied up like a pretzel.
 
I think your take on the Ferg - Dariush fight is way off. Sure Ferguson fought against two very good guys but in the Oliveira fight especially he looked so old and frail.
Historically Ferguson never had great takedown defense and has always been hittable anyway, his physical attributes and pressure were his main strengths. You make a case for Ferguson by actually referring to ''a couple years ago''
Dariush has dominated great BJJ players, so I don't see why he can't do the same against Ferguson. He's definitely not gonna get tied up like a pretzel.
I thought Ferg would give Dariush problems for awhile too. The cardio, the damage he dishes out. But then that loss to Oliveria happened, and that Gillespie vs CDF fight offered some very recent insight into Dariush's grappling ability.

Sadly, I think this fight ends Tony's relevance in the upper echelons of the division. Would love to see him transition into having fun stylistic matchups, Tony vs Diaz for example would be amazing.
 
I thought Ferg would give Dariush problems for awhile too. The cardio, the damage he dishes out. But then that loss to Oliveria happened, and that Gillespie vs CDF fight offered some very recent insight into Dariush's grappling ability.

Sadly, I think this fight ends Tony's relevance in the upper echelons of the division. Would love to see him transition into having fun stylistic matchups, Tony vs Diaz for example would be amazing.

See my AV for how big a fan I've been of Tony. But yeah, he's simply not the guy he was. I don't think cutting weight twice within 6 weeks or whatever leading up to the Justin fight helped either. Likely it aged him faster.

Dariush has problems with big hitters because he will get sloppy and is susceptible to getting KO'd. But Tony isn't a one shot KO guy.

Dariush is rightfully favored here.
 
See my AV for how big a fan I've been of Tony. But yeah, he's simply not the guy he was. I don't think cutting weight twice within 6 weeks or whatever leading up to the Justin fight helped either. Likely it aged him faster.

Dariush has problems with big hitters because he will get sloppy and is susceptible to getting KO'd. But Tony isn't a one shot KO guy.

Dariush is rightfully favored here.
A friend of mine whose opinion I respect is very much a big fan of TFerg too, and he is convinced he's done at this point.

I don't see a 37-year-old Ferguson wildly improving or changing his style. Dariush is a tough guy, not easy to finish. In the past, I would have expected Tony to wear him down with such a high work rate standing and on the ground.

Now, I think the book is there. Dariush should be able to neutralize the bottom game, and Tony's td defence is not the best, so it's not as though he's going to exhaust Dariush in the process
 
Ferguson looks to have declined a lot in the last 2 years, only way I see him winning is to catch Dariush standing in a wild exchange which could happen as Dariush does recklessly pursue finishes leaving himself open to getting caught. Ferguson just got handled so easily by Olivera so If they go to the ground I think Dariush will control him easily. Ferg still seems to have a good chin though and is probably to tough to tap after that armbar Charles had him in so I figure Dariush will probably decision him.
 
yah i agree.I think im passing on this fight too and going to include a safer bet from the next card into my parlay. they're too even, but Souza poses a threat with his striking but can also just get out worked by the younger guy. When i did the spread sheet, it came out near even. You have a young fighter who is going to be shaper but still behind on striking vs a guy who is more well rounded but may be very eroded. its nothing concrete, and i cant reach a solid conclusion.

The Jacare vs Muniz fight is fascinating in that if this fight took place after Jacare lost a contested split decision vs 205 Champ Jan Blachowicz. Jacare would be a heavy favorite. I just finished watching tape on Jacare vs Holland. Jacare looked so slow in both the ground & stand up. It's as if age and the damage from the Blachowicz fight caught up to his nervous system. He doesn't have the reflexes or ability to take a punch without his brain shutting off. Go back and watch that fight. Jacare was hurt very badly. He was hurt for quite some time as well. Muniz is nothing special but I can't help wondering if Jacare is going to look even worse than last time.
 
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