UFC 264 | Poirier vs McGregor

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I feel that Dustin Poirier should easily be the side here, but I fear conspiracy. Between Poirier's clear waning passion for the sport between what he has expressed and him turning down the title fight in favour of the money fight with Conor, and Conor's clear loss in stock if he loses this fight, I feel like this fight very well above all other fights has a good chance of being rigged.
 
Was listening to Coach Zahabi, he said McGregor needs to stop the takedowns, stop the southpaw leg kicks, have cardio for 5 rounds and keep the distance. Kill shot or nothing.

^ That's a lot of ifs. Poirier's chin is also much better at 155.
 
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Joon Cha said:
I feel that Dustin Poirier should easily be the side here, but I fear conspiracy. Between Poirier's clear waning passion for the sport between what he has expressed and him turning down the title fight in favour of the money fight with Conor, and Conor's clear loss in stock if he loses this fight, I feel like this fight very well above all other fights has a good chance of being rigged.
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Obviously I don't know Dustin personally, but I feel pretty comfortable asserting that there's no way he's the kind of guy who'd ever throw a fight. If he was destitute and his kids were gonna starve if he didn't, then maybe...but otherwise, no way.

I agree he's the side. His overall striking game just looked better than Conor's last time. He didn't land one clean shot out of nowhere. He surgically took Conor apart, using leg kicks along with crisp boxing. And maybe more importantly, he ate Conor's punches easily. I've said for years that what made Conor an all time great FW was that when he hit guys at 145, they were done. There's just no evidence at all that Conor's power has translated up to 155 and above. Nate took everything he had at 170. Conor put Eddie away at 155 but needed to knock him down 3 times to do it, and Eddie had sustained incredible damage over the years prior to that. Cowboy was already a shell of himself at 170.

I cap Dustin maybe -175ish for this third fight so at evens...yep. I already have some on him and if he gets a plus number next to him I'll add.
 


this is a huge red flag for me. i won't be touching the main event unless they offer that dumbass fight goes over 1 minute prop @ -500

poirier declined the belt for a money fight. thats another red flag.
 
mkess101 said:
Obviously I don't know Dustin personally, but I feel pretty comfortable asserting that there's no way he's the kind of guy who'd ever throw a fight. If he was destitute and his kids were gonna starve if he didn't, then maybe...but otherwise, no way.

I agree he's the side. His overall striking game just looked better than Conor's last time. He didn't land one clean shot out of nowhere. He surgically took Conor apart, using leg kicks along with crisp boxing. And maybe more importantly, he ate Conor's punches easily. I've said for years that what made Conor an all time great FW was that when he hit guys at 145, they were done. There's just no evidence at all that Conor's power has translated up to 155 and above. Nate took everything he had at 170. Conor put Eddie away at 155 but needed to knock him down 3 times to do it, and Eddie had sustained incredible damage over the years prior to that. Cowboy was already a shell of himself at 170.

I cap Dustin maybe -175ish for this third fight so at evens...yep. I already have some on him and if he gets a plus number next to him I'll add.
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For the right price anyone can be bought. There is a lot of money involved in a Conor Mcgregor fight. A comeback win in the trilogy over Poirier will absolutely rejuvenate his UFC career, legacy, and public reception-rather than squash it should he lose. The man is only 32. He still has a few more years that the UFC can wring out of him.
 
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Nothing really jumping out at me right now. A lot of value slipped away

I did manage to get wonder boy at +135

hoping for some favorable line movement in the next two weeks
 
ballsackarino said:


this is a huge red flag for me. i won't be touching the main event unless they offer that dumbass fight goes over 1 minute prop @ -500

poirier declined the belt for a money fight. thats another red flag.
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I would disagree. At this point in his career he should be taking money fights. It’s a rare opportunity in the ufc
 
ballsackarino said:
You're gonna bet on mcgregor because you think he's gonna pay off poirier to throw the fight?
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I'm not saying I'm betting any side on this fight other than ITD which is free money. This is simply my overwhelming feeling that this fight will be rigged.
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
I would disagree. At this point in his career he should be taking money fights. It’s a rare opportunity in the ufc
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It's a good financial decision and a good career decision but none of that matters because I want the fighter I'm betting on to be 100% motivated and if you're fighting for a paycheque it shows that you don't really have all the necessary motivation. I want to bet on true competitors that are willing to die in the cage.
 
ballsackarino said:
It's a good financial decision and a good career decision but none of that matters because I want the fighter I'm betting on to be 100% motivated and if you're fighting for a paycheque it shows that you don't really have all the necessary motivation. I want to bet on true competitors that are willing to die in the cage.
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I don’t think you can write it off as just fighting for a check. McGregor is a still a high profile fight that’s gonna give you great exposure. Red panty night doesn’t come along for everyone. You’ve got to get the bag while you can imo. I don’t think it will effect his motivation.

They might have told him will get a title fight if he beats mcgregor
 
But he already knocked him out and got exposure. It's all speculation anyways but its enough for me to pass on the fight. I can't pick a fighter who says he's not in love with the sport anymore and i can't pick an inactive mcgregor at lightweight really. He should have stuck to knocking out midget wrestlers at feathweight.
 
Joon Cha said:
For the right price anyone can be bought. There is a lot of money involved in a Conor Mcgregor fight. A comeback win in the trilogy over Poirier will absolutely rejuvenate his UFC career, legacy, and public reception-rather than squash it should he lose. The man is only 32. He still has a few more years that the UFC can wring out of him.
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Dustin isn't in dire need of $. What, do you think they're gonna offer him $10m to throw the fight?

In addition, whenever I hear this talk about fights being fixed, the inevitable thing I think of is: what's the cost/benefit analysis here?

The odds of it being leaked wouldn't be great, but nor is it impossible. Look at former UFC fighters who have absolutely trashed the org and Dana when it's become obvious they'll never work together again (Mark Hunt being the prime example). Do you think the organization would put it's ENTIRE legitimacy as a sport at risk to "squeeze a few more money fights" out of Conor? REALLY? Because if Dustin ever became disgruntled and was retired but pissed at the UFC, he could come out any time and say "Yep, they gave me $1m to throw that third fight". And then what happens? The UFC immediately ceases to be looked at as a legitimate sport and is the WWE.

Sorry, but no way do I believe they'd even try to fix fights at this point. Hell, Dana was insanely vocal about how Pride used to do it.
 
Short Notice:
- None

Fight camps:
Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor - 8+ weeks
Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson - 8+ weeks
Tai Tuivasa vs. Greg Hardy - 8+ weeks
Irene Aldana vs. Yana Kunitskaya - 8+ weeks
Sean O'Malley vs. Louis Smolka - 8+ weeks
Carlos Condit vs. Max Griffin - 3 weeks
Niko Price vs. Michel Pereira - 4 weeks
Trevin Giles vs. Dricus Du Plessis - 8+ weeks
Ryan Hall vs. Ilia Topuria - 8+ weeks
Jennifer Maia vs. Jessica Eye - 8+ weeks
Omari Akhmedov vs. Brad Tavares - 8+ weeks
Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs. Jerome Rivera - 8+ weeks
Hu Yaozong vs. Alen Amedovski - 5 weeks
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Nothing really jumping out at me right now. A lot of value slipped away

I did manage to get wonder boy at +135

hoping for some favorable line movement in the next two weeks
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Wonderboy +135? I bet him as ther favorite and I was happy he wasn't like -200.

I think Burns striking and footwork is too rudimentary for is Wonderboy. Thompson has struggled with larger fighters and wrestlers with 1 punch KO power. Burns is neither.
 
SalvadorAllende said:
Wonderboy +135? I bet him as ther favorite and I was happy he wasn't like -200.

I think Burns striking and footwork is too rudimentary for is Wonderboy. Thompson has struggled with larger fighters and wrestlers with 1 punch KO power. Burns is neither.
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Yea I caught it pretty early. Think he opened at +145
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
They might have told him will get a title fight if he beats mcgregor
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I think pretty obvious the winner of Conor/Dustin fights for the title. Conor is good for business and Dustin is basically the uncrowned LW champ since Khabib retired.
Any speculation about this being a fixed fight is beyond stupid.
 
Is anyone worried after seeing Mcgregor's training videos? if Conor goes out the way his training in his videos he released.
I am actually going to favor Dustin here. Yet there are some two sketchy things i feel about the main event. I dont feel like betting on either side.
 
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