UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev, Sat, Oct 22

Early leans:
Islam Makhachev ML and ITD
Aljamain Sterling ML and ITD
Petr Yan ML and ITD
Maybe Mateusz Gamrot/ Daruiush has never lost a decision though
 
Tebowned said:
Early leans:
Islam Makhachev ML and ITD
Aljamain Sterling ML and ITD
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By what method does Makhachev win ITD? Standing, GnP, or sub? I would think DEC for both of these.
 
Already hammered TJ at + odds. I know he's old and could very well have aged overnight since the Sandhagen fight but he looked really good in that and he has too many things I like to pass up on +135. Outstanding striker, like when he's on he's top 10 ever (again who knows where he's at). Great scrambler, solid BJJ (better than Yan's), cardio machine (even without teh not so zecret juice), and extremely gritty. Aljo made me eat my words and fought perfectly in the second Yan fight, but I think it's just another bad style matchup. Can't see Aljo hurting TJ, it would be a sub if he finishes him. Prime TJ obliterates Aljo, so if you're betting him you're betting on a steep decline in TJ, and I'm willing to bet on the chance that TJ still has it.

Also Gamrot/Dariush has FGTD written all over it. It's only 3 rounds so I don't see Gamrot's brutal pace coming into play too much.
 
jnes said:
Already hammered TJ at + odds. I know he's old and could very well have aged overnight since the Sandhagen fight but he looked really good in that and he has too many things I like to pass up on +135. Outstanding striker, like when he's on he's top 10 ever (again who knows where he's at). Great scrambler, solid BJJ (better than Yan's), cardio machine (even without teh not so zecret juice), and extremely gritty. Aljo made me eat my words and fought perfectly in the second Yan fight, but I think it's just another bad style matchup. Can't see Aljo hurting TJ, it would be a sub if he finishes him. Prime TJ obliterates Aljo, so if you're betting him you're betting on a steep decline in TJ, and I'm willing to bet on the chance that TJ still has it.

Also Gamrot/Dariush has FGTD written all over it. It's only 3 rounds so I don't see Gamrot's brutal pace coming into play too much.
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I agree. I can't stand Dillashaw but I think he's better everywhere, plus he got his debut after the time off out of the way.

I'm surprised Belal is the dog. Another fighter I don't really like but this seems like a good matchup for him. He's a better striker than Chiesa, and he's younger with a lot more energy. Chiesa has better subs but Belal has better get-ups. I wasn't impressed at all with Brady in that fight. (Super early opinion before re-watching any of the fights. Just going off memory.)
 
I’ve been unloading on Oliviera for the past few weeks. Hit the opener at +250 and added more and more +140. Every free bet I get has been going on him.
 
B.Goetz said:
By what method does Makhachev win ITD? Standing, GnP, or sub? I would think DEC for both of these.
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Charles is so uber aggressive with his guard that there's a good chance it ends up getting him stuck in a really bad spot vs a grappling savant (and one that has a strength advantage to boot).

I have zero doubt whatsoever that Oliveira is a capable enough bjj player off his back that he could survive 25 minutes and avoid big damage if he chose that route and was content losing a lopsided decision. But that's not who he is. He will attack and try to set up subs and while there's a chance he finds something, odds are far better that he gets his guard passed and ends up trapped in a bad spot.

Just how I see it.
 
B.Goetz said:
By what method does Makhachev win ITD? Standing, GnP, or sub? I would think DEC for both of these.
Click to expand...

Charles has only lost one decision to Frankie Edgar. He's been subbed and tkoed by lesser fighters.
 
Screenshot 2022-09-21 025626.png

Marked blue on a few dogs i think can upset the favorite.

Im not super high on tj, i thought Cory beat him, if you look at it like a loss, his real last two wins are Cody G.

He's aggressive and will take it to Alja, but let's face it, Alja just beat a more game fighter in Yan who hits harder than Tj, if he can deal with that pressure, he can deal with TJ's pressure game. Im expecting Alja to do a similar performance.
 
Chucky has made me good money in the past,bet him big against Chandler and Gaethje plus his my favorite fighter,but I'm with @mkess101 on this one.I think Islam is good enough to avoid the sub atempts and do the damage on the ground.Not a lot of value though,not a huge bet,but I'll have to take Islam.
Probably will play Aljo.Tj would be a no-brainer couple of years ago,but a 36 1/2 bantam coming of a knee operation...With all the meds and juices I'm banking on that he'll come out losing some of the speed and agillity.
 
Stat_Collector said:
View attachment 944657

Marked blue on a few dogs i think can upset the favorite.

Im not super high on tj, i thought Cory beat him, if you look at it like a loss, his real last two wins are Cody G.

He's aggressive and will take it to Alja, but let's face it, Alja just beat a more game fighter in Yan who hits harder than Tj, if he can deal with that pressure, he can deal with TJ's pressure game. Im expecting Alja to do a similar performance.
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I'm on Aljo at what I feel are great odds due to everything you said plus the fact that TJ is coming off of a major injury.
 
People are sleeping on just how good a grappler Aljo is too. Prime TJ on the sauce may be different, but I think Aljo can absolutely ground this version and control him for long enough stretches to win rounds. And Aljo's sub game is VERY slick. Sandhagen got a pretty deep sub attempt on TJ iirc, so Aljo could absolutely find a sub.

I assumed Aljo would be -200 or steeper given that TJ arguably lost to Corey. I bet Aljo and parlayed him in a chalk combo with Islam too.
 
mkess101 said:
People are sleeping on just how good a grappler Aljo is too. Prime TJ on the sauce may be different, but I think Aljo can absolutely ground this version and control him for long enough stretches to win rounds. And Aljo's sub game is VERY slick. Sandhagen got a pretty deep sub attempt on TJ iirc, so Aljo could absolutely find a sub.

I assumed Aljo would be -200 or steeper given that TJ arguably lost to Corey. I bet Aljo and parlayed him in a chalk combo with Islam too.
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Aljo is also the 2nd best back taker in the sport behind Formiga and has great control from there, if he gets that position TJ can forget about getting out for that round.
 
I think o2.5 at +130 has value for Islam/Charles as well. Islam likely isn't snagging a quick Kimora or something like he did vs Hooker. Charles is too well schooled in bjj for that. Islam tends to take his time and doesn't try to rush for a finish. He may well get one, but imo it will come over time and organically if he does.

This goes against what I said earlier about how aggressive Charles is with his guard, but here (because of how good Islam is) I think he'll be a bit more conservative off his back early in the fight. I think he starts taking chances as the fight progresses, so I don't see a quick finish. Gonna be on o2.5 at + odds, just not sure for how much.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Just to continue the Sherdog tradition of discussing shitty WMMA fights on exciting cards, does anyone else think we see the return of D1 Chook from the Antonina fight?
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I was thinking about that myself when I saw chook get bet up to +250

mid have to watch that fight again. Can’t remebr who engaged the clinches and forced the wrestling

chook is very good at winning decisions, I passed on manon at -175
 
Don't know if I'd bet Chook but I do know I wouldn't pay this kind of juice on Fiorot against her.
 
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