UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev, Sat, Oct 22

Suprised so many are convinced that makachev is going to win. He’s def legit but Charles has taken out elite fighters in his last three. It’s true there were some moments in there where it looked like he would lose but that just shows how resilient he is. Makachev has looked great but this is a big step up and we haven’t seen him get tested.
 
I've taken Gadzhi Omargadzhiev as a dog. I feel like this line is quite reactionary based on the Borralho fight who's a tough matchup for anyone in the division. I don't think Abubakar is anything special.
He's cutting to 170 for the first time, which is a double-edged sword. On one hand, we don't know how he'll perform with the weight cut. On the other hand, he won't be giving up the size advantage like he did with Borralho.
 
Gamrot does not have better top control than Dariush. Not even close. Top control is one of Gamrot's weaknesses.
I moreso meant I see Gamrot being able to complete the takedowns and bank enough control time on top for the judges if it gets to a decision. You are obviously right, though, Dariush will likely be able to get up, and I cannot undervalue his abilities in scrambles.
 
Suprised so many are convinced that makachev is going to win. He’s def legit but Charles has taken out elite fighters in his last three. It’s true there were some moments in there where it looked like he would lose but that just shows how resilient he is. Makachev has looked great but this is a big step up and we haven’t seen him get tested.

It's the Khabib effect, and TBH I'm on board with it. I need to actually see someone deal with his grappling before I'll believe there's a LW out there who's capable of it. Charles is a terrific submission guy himself for sure, but there's so much more to grappling than that. Thiago Moises is a heck of a grappler himself. You could debate his grappling vs Charles grappling (not overall as fighters obviously, but just their grappling). Islam completely shut him down and dominated the grappling.
 
I moreso meant I see Gamrot being able to complete the takedowns and bank enough control time on top for the judges if it gets to a decision. You are obviously right, though, Dariush will likely be able to get up, and I cannot undervalue his abilities in scrambles.

People don't understand how good a grappler Beneil is. It's from a long time ago (and in the gi), but watch his match at the world's vs Kron. Beneil's grappling is beyond legit.
 
What do you think Belal offers Brady that Chiesa didn't? That's the issue I'm having convincing myself to be interested in Belal.
Chiesa is one of the slowest guys in the division and - while he’s a seasoned veteran - his stand up is severely lacking. He’s a real grinder and somewhat of a submission threat, but he really doesn’t bring much more to the table IMO. I was really, really surprised that RDA lost to him. I guess size matters? That’s a big feather in his cap, I’ll give that to him.

Belal has progressed a lot and even though I’m never excited to see him fight (lol) I got to say he’s one of the most well rounded guys in the division. His wrestling has improved leaps and bounds, his top control is good, he utilizes footwork well to either circle away from danger and making his opponent chase him or to put on pressure and makes his opponent back up to where he wants him.

Belal’s stand up has also gotten better, both offensively and defensively. He’s a tough fight for anybody right now. Not exciting, but damn is he able to attack his opponents weak points well (wrestle the strikers and vice versa).

I’m picking Belal here (via dec, too) and I’m liking the odds. I don’t think Brady will be able to wrestle him well enough and thus he won’t be able to get his ground game going.
 
From what I've taped so far the sides I like are Mahkachev, Dillashaw, O'Malley, Gamrot, Brady, Petrosyan and Mustaev
 
From what I've taped so far the sides I like are Mahkachev, Dillashaw, O'Malley, Gamrot, Brady, Petrosyan and Mustaev
What does the tape tell you on Brady vs Muhammad? You think Brady will be able to force the grappling and make it his fight? Because I don’t think he can do that, but we’ll see!
 
From what I've taped so far the sides I like are Mahkachev, Dillashaw, O'Malley, Gamrot, Brady, Petrosyan and Mustaev

I'm with you on O'Malley. I favor Yan, but odds are too wide in a 3 round fight where Yan tends to start kinda slow. O'Malley may be able to use some straight punches at range to steal rd 1 while Yan figures out distance. And at current odds that would give him nice value imo.
 
Suprised so many are convinced that makachev is going to win. He’s def legit but Charles has taken out elite fighters in his last three. It’s true there were some moments in there where it looked like he would lose but that just shows how resilient he is. Makachev has looked great but this is a big step up and we haven’t seen him get tested.
i hit islam at -165 just as a gut reaction to seeing him at that price, its rare to get him at those odds. he is parlay worthy, but i don’t get anyone laying multiple units. Charles by ko at 1000+ odds is playable, islam may be a chinny fighter. i’ve seen him get slight shook by a jab. Charles can spark him.
 
i hit islam at -165 just as a gut reaction to seeing him at that price, its rare to get him at those odds. he is parlay worthy, but i don’t get anyone laying multiple units. Charles by ko at 1000+ odds is playable, islam may be a chinny fighter. i’ve seen him get slight shook by a jab. Charles can spark him.

Is it just me or Islam by finish at +144 seems very low?
 
Is it just me or Islam by finish at +144 seems very low?
for main events it's too low, but charles has been finished before, and 5 rounders leave those opportunities. I actually think it should be 250+ and maybe decision evens+

I would not play it just because there are better odds finishes by the round, Islam to win rnds 4-5 is likely if you're going to play the ITD prop. Islam didn't finish Thiago till rnd 4 which is the closes variable to Charles. So i like any prop like Islam to win rnd 4 single bet or Islam to win rnd 5 and Islam to win rnds 4,5 or decision prop, i've seen these props in Bovada. I'll be looking for those 600+ odds instead. Charles by split decision/majority or decision.
 
Is it just me or Islam by finish at +144 seems very low?

25 minutes is a long time to survive with Islam on top of you. And it's not like Charles uses a conservative guard to avoid damage. He's ultra aggressive which is likely to lead to him getting stuck in worse spots than someone who's just trying to avoid damage.
 
25 minutes is a long time to survive with Islam on top of you. And it's not like Charles uses a conservative guard to avoid damage. He's ultra aggressive which is likely to lead to him getting stuck in worse spots than someone who's just trying to avoid damage.
Charles has been subbed by lesser grapplers before, he tends to get finished in general in his losses. I feel very confident about Islam finish.
 
What does the tape tell you on Brady vs Muhammad? You think Brady will be able to force the grappling and make it his fight? Because I don’t think he can do that, but we’ll see!

I wouldn’t go as far as to call Belal elusive, he’s more so just mobile and sticks to the game plan. He poses questions to his opponents - Can you cut me off? Can you stop me hitting while not getting hit? Can you hurt me or control me? And if you can’t he'll just keep moving, keep shifting and keep chipping away.

So, in terms of a style match it’s probably the most tricky one Brady has faced. The most mobile fighter he's took on, the most game plan and round aware opponent he’s faced too, but also just not a very dangerous one.

I think Belal will try to hit and move, he has the better striking overall and I think he will try to skirt the outside and dip in and out and probably kicks the body a fair bit, maintain a safe distance. I think the place Brady makes up the difference is in the clinch, the wrestling, the grappling and the physicality that he has for it.

He’s going to have to lead here if he wants to win and apply some degree of pressure, but as long as he doesn’t get completely dumbstruck by a man moving side to side with his back against the cage - and recognises that he can just go forward and step in and the risk isn’t that high because Belal is really low impact - He should be able to catch Belal often enough in space to remain competitive on the cards but then he can also find round stealing or clear round winning/dominating moments with his wrestling and grappling once inside. I think he can find his way inside in enough moments and either get good time against the cage or get the takedown and then do damage from the top.

I think Belal is playing a game of fine margins generally, out pointing his opponents, and as long as Brady fights with some level of sense and thought process he should be able to find enough striking success and make it lead to opportunities to get inside and work his A game
 
Just incase it hasn't been noted already Belal is in Dubai training under Khabib with Islam and their whole team... looks like he has been there since about early September. I'm assuming he stays there untill the fight. The facility they are training at is an hour and fifteen minute drive from where the card will take place... the extra travel for Brady could play a factor.
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Just incase it hasn't been noted already Belal is in Dubai training under Khabib with Islam and their whole team... looks like he has been there since about early September. I'm assuming he stays there untill the fight. The facility they are training at is an hour and fifteen minute drive from where the card will take place... the extra travel for Brady could play a factor.
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I just wonder if Belal can stay off his back the first 10 minutes of the fight. Training with that group of grappling savants damn sure won't hurt his chances but Brady being able to hold down and control Craig Jones shows his top control as elite. I can see him fading a bit for sure, he carries a lot of muscle and doesn't seem to have an amazing gas tank. But even if he's tired in rd 3, if he's up 2 rounds does anyone really want to bet on Belal being able to finish?
 
For now it's still a pass,but the money seems to be coming on O'Malley,if the odds get a bit more closer I'll pay the juice for Yan.I don't like the he can win the first and then just needs one more narative as true as it might be.Yan is still favored to win the first IMO.And then after that a lot of trouble will start for Sean...
 
For now it's still a pass,but the money seems to be coming on O'Malley,if the odds get a bit more closer I'll pay the juice for Yan.I don't like the he can win the first and then just needs one more narative as true as it might be.Yan is still favored to win the first IMO.And then after that a lot of trouble will start for Sean...

-300 for a former champion still in his prime against an opponent who has looked bad/average against every step up in competition he has ever faced seems about as good as it is going to get.

I don't think the line is going to drop any further.
 
Alright boys, Abubakar or Gadzhi?
 
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