UFC Fight Night 184: Holloway vs Kattar

Williams is a decent fighter who in his short career already fought pretty good competition and was also competitive in every fight. People love to discredit fighters after a loss, while I remember before that fight with Imavov people were pretty high on Williams. I personally thought Imavov looked pretty good and I would rate him higher than Marquez who crushed Hawes.
 
Not sure how to read Imavov vs Hawes but I think Imavov has value as a slight dog. Hawes path to victory is either his power or his wrestling, but Imavov is probably the better striker and is active enough in scrambling+throwing subs that he could deal with a wrestling gameplan. Hawes last opponent and his DWCS win were both pretty low level and that's not enough for me to forget Marquez destroying him.

Hawes really relies the on the finish and doesn't have the best gas tank. This fight is dog or pass for me.
 
Anyone like Yanan Wu. Height and reach. Good volume against Mizuki. Only 24 and improving.
This will be a standup war. Both these women prefer to stand in the pocket and exchange. I actually took Joselyne as a value bet because she was +160 when the lines first opened. Now they're almost even. I just watched both of their last fights. I think Joselyne has more power but Wu is the more polished striker. It's a tossup imo
 
Eh, to say Hawes ko r1 or bust is a horrible way to look at this fight. I'm betting Hawes here at -130, and will be ready to pounce on Imavov live to hedge slightly if the fight looks like it will go 2 and 3. But I think Hawes can win decision. Imavov last win against a fighter I honestly don't think is any good really. Jordan Williams to Hawes is literally fighting a guy weighing in at least 15 pounds heavier on fight night and even more power per pound. He got clipped by Williams, Hawes will do more damage. And if fatigued. Could have enough wrestling to control round 2 or 3. Think it's way more than 50/50 and way way way more than just a round 1 KO or bust type of fight

Imavov did not get ''clipped'' by Williams, it was a clash of heads.
 
I wasn't comparing the previous comp. I actually made alot off Imavov last fight. Williams was fade material. He just isn't all that good and comes in fights at a severe weight disadvantage. Imavov is hittable in my opinion and I think Hawes matches up very well. All I'm arguing is to say its round 1 KO or bust is not a good way to look at this fight. Imavov the more complete fighter I believe that. And he's only 24. He's gona be a very good fighter for a long time. But Hawes should handle him, most likely KO.. but he has a few paths to victory not just KO or bust. I'm betting him -130 and will bet him down to an even line I'm expecting. I will be ready to live bet Imavov if need be
 
These are not my picks. They are Kyle Marley’s picks. I am posting them for your enjoyment. Please don’t ask me why I am picking the below because they’re not my picks. They’re Kyle Marley’s picks. He’s a writer for SportsLine. He has a great way of basically giving himself an out on every pick and, despite his pretty awful pick history, claims to be up 20,000 in 2020. Once again, these are not my picks. They are Kyle Marley’s picks. If you disagree with them you should send him a strongly worded email.

Max Holloway (-160) vs. Calvin Kattar (+140): Holloway by decision

This should be a five-round striking battle and I don't see either guy having a game plan in which they look to wrestle. Holloway has a lot more five-round experience, and he is more of a volume striker. I would think he is the one who will be throwing and landing more each round. Kattar has good volume as well and has more power, so I give him the better shot at a knock out, even though Holloway has never been knocked out. Kattar is a stud and I think he will keep every round close. He might land the harder shots and have the judges giving him rounds for that. But I think he will be behind in strikes, so I agree with Holloway being the favorite and he is my pick based on volume.

Carlos Condit (-155) vs. Matt Brown (+135): Condit inside the distance

This would have been an epic fight five years ago. I still think it will be a fun striking battle, but we are getting both guys toward the end of their careers. Brown could come in with more of a wrestling-based game plan, which will take away from the excitement but will give him a better chance of winning. I think Condit is the better striker and, if this is the fun, striking fight that we all want, I favor him. It's hard to trust either of these guys with your money at this stage in their careers so maybe this is one to stay away from on betting and just hope for a fun brawl.

Santiago Ponzinibbio (-280) vs. Li Jinglang (+240): Ponzinibbio by decision

Ponzinibbio hasn't fought in over two years but he was on the verge of a title shot before he ran into health issues. Lucky for him, the last Jingliang we saw was the worst performance I have seen from him. Even with the unknowns, I have to pick Ponzinibbio. He has the better hands and I think he will clip Li's chin at least once and possibly put him away. Li is solid as well when he shows up and he could look to land takedowns. On the feet, he can keep the fight close with volume and has never been finished.

Joaquin Buckley (-270) vs. Alessio Di Chirico (+230): Buckley by TKO

Buckley is coming off the Knockout of the Year for 2020 two fights ago and landed another impressive stoppage in his last fight. The hype is starting to show in the betting line, but I think this is another good spot for him. Di Chirico can keep this fight close on the feet and maybe win rounds if he can mix in his wrestling. Buckley can stuff takedowns and he should be the one landing more volume as well as the harder shots.

Dusko Todrovic (-160) vs. Punahele Soriano (+140): Soriano by TKO

This is a good fight between two solid prospects. I think it is a super close fight between two similar fighters. Both guys are solid offensive strikers, and they are good at raining down shots in top control as well. This is close to a 50-50 fight for me, so I will lean with the underdog as my pick. I think Dusko can be a bit too sloppy on the feet when he walks forward throwing looping punches, so I could see Soriano landing a big shot to put him away.

Phil Hawes (-135) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+115): Hawes by TKO

Hawes is going to be the bully in this fight, especially early. He is a powerful striker who can land a knockout and also has good wrestling that he can dominate with. His issue is cardio, and wrestling and big shots are what fatigue fighters the most. His best path to victory is going to be a first-round finish. Imavov is the more technical striker and could get a late finish of his own. I will lean with Hawes to get a ground-and-pound finish early.

Wu Yanan (-125) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+105): Yanan by decision

This is a close fight but Yanan looks like the more technical striker and she has more higher-level experience as well. Edwards might have the edge on the ground, but it is very close and either fighter could pull off a submission. I think this fight mainly plays out on the feet and I like Yanan there because Edwards has looked a bit too sloppy at times. Yanan should be the one landing more volume as well as the harder shots.

Tom Breese (-140) vs. Omari Akhmedov (+120): Breese by decision

Breese is the much better athlete and the fight will favor him as long as it stays on the feet. He is also the better grappler and maybe he can lock up a submission off his back. He struggles with wrestlers and that is what Akhmedov is going to look to do. I think Akhmedov is live to win a decision, but I would just bet that decision prop if you are taking him. I think Breese has more ways to get the win, so he will be the pick.

Carlos Felipe (-180) vs. Justin Tafa (+160): Tafa by TKO

Felipe looks like the better boxer but Tafa is a more powerful puncher. Felipe doesn't produce big volume, so I think Tafa can hang in there for a decision and he can slow Felipe down with calf kicks. I think Felipe is more likely to win a decision, but these are big boys, so I will take Tafa to land something big and get a stoppage.

Ramazan Emeev (-260) vs. David Zawada (+220): Emeev by decision

Emeev is the better striker and wrestler. Zawada can hang on the feet volume-wise because Emeev isn't a high-paced fighter, but Emeev is going to be the one pushing forward and landing the cleaner shots. I think Zawada needs a knockout or choke to win or else Emeev is going to out-point him for a clear decision.

Sarah Moras (-240) vs. Vanessa Melo (+200): Melo by decision

I think Moras is probably the better fighter, especially on the mat. She is not a good wrestler and on the feet this fight is close. However, Moras is a 6-6 fighter with a 70-percent win probability based on the odds and this is just too steep. I agree with her being the favorite, but this line has me leaning with the underdog in a close fight.

Austin Lingo (-210) vs. Jacob Kilburn (+180): Lingo by TKO

Lingo is an aggressive boxer who is going to be pushing forward and looking for the finish. Kilburn likes to work in space, so I don't think this matchup is a good one for him. But he does have power in his hands and kicks. He likely needs a knockout to win and I think Lingo is more likely to get the stoppage himself, and I like him if it goes the distance as well.
 
These are not my picks. They are Kyle Marley’s picks. I am posting them for your enjoyment. Please don’t ask me why I am picking the below because they’re not my picks. They’re Kyle Marley’s picks. He’s a writer for SportsLine. He has a great way of basically giving himself an out on every pick and, despite his pretty awful pick history, claims to be up 20,000 in 2020. Once again, these are not my picks. They are Kyle Marley’s picks. If you disagree with them you should send him a strongly worded email.

Max Holloway (-160) vs. Calvin Kattar (+140): Holloway by decision

This should be a five-round striking battle and I don't see either guy having a game plan in which they look to wrestle. Holloway has a lot more five-round experience, and he is more of a volume striker. I would think he is the one who will be throwing and landing more each round. Kattar has good volume as well and has more power, so I give him the better shot at a knock out, even though Holloway has never been knocked out. Kattar is a stud and I think he will keep every round close. He might land the harder shots and have the judges giving him rounds for that. But I think he will be behind in strikes, so I agree with Holloway being the favorite and he is my pick based on volume.

Carlos Condit (-155) vs. Matt Brown (+135): Condit inside the distance

This would have been an epic fight five years ago. I still think it will be a fun striking battle, but we are getting both guys toward the end of their careers. Brown could come in with more of a wrestling-based game plan, which will take away from the excitement but will give him a better chance of winning. I think Condit is the better striker and, if this is the fun, striking fight that we all want, I favor him. It's hard to trust either of these guys with your money at this stage in their careers so maybe this is one to stay away from on betting and just hope for a fun brawl.

Santiago Ponzinibbio (-280) vs. Li Jinglang (+240): Ponzinibbio by decision

Ponzinibbio hasn't fought in over two years but he was on the verge of a title shot before he ran into health issues. Lucky for him, the last Jingliang we saw was the worst performance I have seen from him. Even with the unknowns, I have to pick Ponzinibbio. He has the better hands and I think he will clip Li's chin at least once and possibly put him away. Li is solid as well when he shows up and he could look to land takedowns. On the feet, he can keep the fight close with volume and has never been finished.

Joaquin Buckley (-270) vs. Alessio Di Chirico (+230): Buckley by TKO

Buckley is coming off the Knockout of the Year for 2020 two fights ago and landed another impressive stoppage in his last fight. The hype is starting to show in the betting line, but I think this is another good spot for him. Di Chirico can keep this fight close on the feet and maybe win rounds if he can mix in his wrestling. Buckley can stuff takedowns and he should be the one landing more volume as well as the harder shots.

Dusko Todrovic (-160) vs. Punahele Soriano (+140): Soriano by TKO

This is a good fight between two solid prospects. I think it is a super close fight between two similar fighters. Both guys are solid offensive strikers, and they are good at raining down shots in top control as well. This is close to a 50-50 fight for me, so I will lean with the underdog as my pick. I think Dusko can be a bit too sloppy on the feet when he walks forward throwing looping punches, so I could see Soriano landing a big shot to put him away.

Phil Hawes (-135) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+115): Hawes by TKO

Hawes is going to be the bully in this fight, especially early. He is a powerful striker who can land a knockout and also has good wrestling that he can dominate with. His issue is cardio, and wrestling and big shots are what fatigue fighters the most. His best path to victory is going to be a first-round finish. Imavov is the more technical striker and could get a late finish of his own. I will lean with Hawes to get a ground-and-pound finish early.

Wu Yanan (-125) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+105): Yanan by decision

This is a close fight but Yanan looks like the more technical striker and she has more higher-level experience as well. Edwards might have the edge on the ground, but it is very close and either fighter could pull off a submission. I think this fight mainly plays out on the feet and I like Yanan there because Edwards has looked a bit too sloppy at times. Yanan should be the one landing more volume as well as the harder shots.

Tom Breese (-140) vs. Omari Akhmedov (+120): Breese by decision

Breese is the much better athlete and the fight will favor him as long as it stays on the feet. He is also the better grappler and maybe he can lock up a submission off his back. He struggles with wrestlers and that is what Akhmedov is going to look to do. I think Akhmedov is live to win a decision, but I would just bet that decision prop if you are taking him. I think Breese has more ways to get the win, so he will be the pick.

Carlos Felipe (-180) vs. Justin Tafa (+160): Tafa by TKO

Felipe looks like the better boxer but Tafa is a more powerful puncher. Felipe doesn't produce big volume, so I think Tafa can hang in there for a decision and he can slow Felipe down with calf kicks. I think Felipe is more likely to win a decision, but these are big boys, so I will take Tafa to land something big and get a stoppage.

Ramazan Emeev (-260) vs. David Zawada (+220): Emeev by decision

Emeev is the better striker and wrestler. Zawada can hang on the feet volume-wise because Emeev isn't a high-paced fighter, but Emeev is going to be the one pushing forward and landing the cleaner shots. I think Zawada needs a knockout or choke to win or else Emeev is going to out-point him for a clear decision.

Sarah Moras (-240) vs. Vanessa Melo (+200): Melo by decision

I think Moras is probably the better fighter, especially on the mat. She is not a good wrestler and on the feet this fight is close. However, Moras is a 6-6 fighter with a 70-percent win probability based on the odds and this is just too steep. I agree with her being the favorite, but this line has me leaning with the underdog in a close fight.

Austin Lingo (-210) vs. Jacob Kilburn (+180): Lingo by TKO

Lingo is an aggressive boxer who is going to be pushing forward and looking for the finish. Kilburn likes to work in space, so I don't think this matchup is a good one for him. But he does have power in his hands and kicks. He likely needs a knockout to win and I think Lingo is more likely to get the stoppage himself, and I like him if it goes the distance as well.


Wow your picks overall really suck. You're likely gonna lose your ass on this card.

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I wasn't comparing the previous comp. I actually made alot off Imavov last fight. Williams was fade material. He just isn't all that good and comes in fights at a severe weight disadvantage. Imavov is hittable in my opinion and I think Hawes matches up very well. All I'm arguing is to say its round 1 KO or bust is not a good way to look at this fight. Imavov the more complete fighter I believe that. And he's only 24. He's gona be a very good fighter for a long time. But Hawes should handle him, most likely KO.. but he has a few paths to victory not just KO or bust. I'm betting him -130 and will bet him down to an even line I'm expecting. I will be ready to live bet Imavov if need be
I checked tapology and Hawes has 1 win in round 2 so for 9 wins thats not alot.
Both loses are in round 2 but you will still say he is not ko r1 or bust
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If I wasn't balls deep into $HEXO at 4.80 I'd put more into Max here
 
Switched sides on Condit/Brown.

I'm on Condit ITD now. Brown has, for lack of a better term, a weak body. As in he's constantly getting hurt by body shots.

Condit, despite not being half the fighter he used to be, still has a granite chin, and mixes his shots up to the body well.

Condit rd2 tko.

Melo +210 solely because I'd cap her at +130.

Holloway/Kattar I'm back and forth on. Kattar is legit, but Max, as we know, is too.

I'm leaning Kattar +140 currently, will reassess after the weigh ins.
 
Everyone made weight.

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punahele-soriano-dusko-todorovic-ufc-on-abc-1-weigh-ins.jpg


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wu-yanan-joselyne-edwards-ufc-on-abc-1-weigh-ins.jpg


carlos-felipe-justin-tafa-ufc-on-abc-1-weigh-ins.jpg


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sarah-moras-vanessa-melo-ufc-on-abc-1-weigh-ins.jpg


jacob-kilburn-austin-lingo-ufc-on-abc-1-weigh-ins.jpg
 
Tough card for betting IMO. Hoping for a lot of ITD.
 
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