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UFC Fight Night 81 - Dillashaw vs Cruz

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Oblivian, Jan 3, 2016.

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  1. Ukram Silver Belt

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    Similar bets placed also, but I recalled judges love for Robbies r5 performance which he loads up on for half the fight lol

    There was a link on the other thread suggesting noke won on pretty much most mma sites, I went biggest on him naturally.

    Next card feels better for overall betting so we will pull through !

    Yup same that was some crazy fight iq from Brandao in r3, I thought greg jackson had trained him to calm down but that went out the window lol, ortego almost just presses the 'lets now fight' button in r3 and got quick finishes but I don't see that working against someone with good cardio and skills, still won't be in a rush to bet against him in the future !
     
  2. Ukram Silver Belt

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    As much as a I like cruz, hard to bet him almost feels like Tj took his place and style and pressed the ff button 2x at the same time.

    Anyone know what was pettis exact injury ? Pettis had one fight in 2014, and then one in 2015, eddie been out for 7 months also so both out for quite a stretch.
     
  3. KampSiver Green Belt

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    We really have no idea how good Cruz's striking is at this point. Last fight against Mizugaki we basically just saw him take him down and end it. Besides that fight his last fight was Oct 2011. That well over 4 years of us not seeing standup from him. With the injury's he's had a lot of time to study the game and potentially improve his standup game, even if he was limited with movement and such while healing injuries.

    He really could be better, more technical, and have much better movement than ever. Otherwise he could diminished, rusty; or TJ has just surpassed him completely in the striking game. I really have no idea how to know which one. IMO this fight is unbettable pre-fight because there really is no way to foresee how this one will go.

    I will be live-betting this one unless there is a lot of line movement. We will learn a lot in round 1 and unless someone is seriously rocked I doubt the line shifts much and we will have so much more information to go on.
     
  4. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I wanna say there is value in that Cruz by dec line, but honestly who tf knows. Its been too long since we've seen Cruz, Mizugaki crushing aside. Cruz also had a point, Barao is as stationary as it gets and nothing like Cruz stylistically, so kind of hard to assess how TJ's style will mesh with his.

    Gonna do my best to not degen, do the right thing and live bet but if I can't hold out i'll play TJ in 4 and 5 and Cruz by dec
     
  5. KampSiver Green Belt

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    I don't think Ortega would have been able to take the fight to the ground. If Diego had any fight iq. Hecould have kept it standing and taken the fight. Even in round 2 when he was more fatigued, he was still outstriking him.

    To me Ortega is fade material vs. anyone in the top 15. I would love to see him vs. Guida.. I would be all over Guida.
     
  6. ClosetVitorFan Gold Belt

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    I got TJ here. Cruz has Shogun knees at this point. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if the fight gets scratched by some freak Cruz injury. Dude is made of glass and TJ will hurt him bad. I could be totally off base. Cruz can come back just as good as before. But I highly doubt it.
     
  7. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    This SF game is wild!!!! Two teams playing for nothing having one of the best games i've seen this year lol
     
  8. iGnP Silver Belt

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    NINERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRS

    my bankroll would have been gutted if they didnt win that game
     
  9. ods White Belt

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    NFL
    HOW BOUT THEM 49ers BOYS!
     
  10. KampSiver Green Belt

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    NFL
    lol at all this action on the 49ers game.. Seriously.. Some of you have proven you are true degens.. :p That game is equivalent to betting on like the super bowl of preseason games. :)
     
  11. iGnP Silver Belt

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    hardly. ive bet on every rams game this season and i believe my record is 11-5 (i wish their record was just as good). being a huge fan really clues you in on how to bet them
     
  12. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I am true degen that was the first time I watched the Rams all season I think loll thanks iGnp! Time to let it ride a bit on my boys, Vikings baby!
     
  13. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Rd 2 striking was close, and Diego was slowing down soooooo much.

    Guida would be defending subs literally nonstop against Ortega. I would easily favor Ortega because Guida has never shown to use counter wrestling exclusively. He can't help but shoot on guys. Ortega would sub him at some point imo. There are guys who are horrible matchups for him that have decent cardio, solid striking, and can easily keep the fight standing against him. Just don't think Guida is one of them.
     
  14. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Over 4.5? Will be juiced I'm sure but still might have value. Cruz isn't even hiding how "hard he is to hit". I can see him avoiding exchanges the entire time, and TJ while a killer just isn't a guy who goes nuts and takes unnecessary risks. Seems like this fight is extremely likely to see the scorecards.
     
  15. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Fight goes distance is -165. Wanna lay juice on it soooo bad it seems so reasonable but so many questions going into this one. Luckily we have time to think and hopefully that doesn't get bet too much.
     
  16. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I'm gonna bet it now. I'd be pretty shocked if it's not about -200 by fight time. I think there's great value. I see this one going the distance at a minimum 2 out of 3 times.
     
  17. iGnP Silver Belt

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    NFL- Sunday night

    really tough game to cap. the winner plays the seahawks, the loser plays the redskins. tell me what incentive either team has in winning this game lol. the packers are really underrated bc of last week's destruction at the hands of the cardinals so i think there's value on them here. but at the same time, i think the books could be overrating the packers bc of past year's success. their o-line is banged up, Rodgers is rumored to be hurt, their receivers cant get open, and their defense flat out stinks. I think this W means more to the Vikings, so im betting them

    Vikings +3, Vikings ML

    *if the Vikings are having issues running the ball, i think the Packers win this game. Live bet at your own risk
     
  18. KampSiver Green Belt

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    If the Packers win they play the Vikings again. If they lose they play the Redskins. So they don't play Seahawks either way.
     
  19. iGnP Silver Belt

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    are you 100% certain? bc the winner of this game will be the 3 seed. i believe the Seahawks are the 6 seed no matter what bc of a worse divisional record. unless there is some weird tiebreaker that im overlooking, im pretty sure im right

    edit: you right. just read that online, my mistake
     
  20. KampSiver Green Belt

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    I'm 100%. Vikings loss will put them at the 6 seed. Seattle beat Minnesota. With a loss they will have the same record and tie breaker would be head to head match first. So they would play GB if GB wins.
     
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