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UFC Fight Night 81 - Dillashaw vs Cruz

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Oblivian, Jan 3, 2016.

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  1. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Packers better start throwing this game if they get Redskins instead of Vikes rematch. Eddie Lacy beastin some serious runs out here though
     
  2. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    NFL (Packers)

    I'm a die hard Packer fan, and we simply cannot protect Rodgers. Which, if it was only that, wouldn't be a disaster. If we had receivers that could get separation he's good enough to get the ball out quickly and find them. But when you combine no time to throw with no open receivers you get...a HOF QB looking very average.

    They had no idea that Jordy Nelson would be this big a loss. There's no real deep threat now so teams play single high safety or even when they do play two deep they move them closer to the line of scrimmage and take the crossing routes that Cobb likes to run away from us. Early in the season defenses didn't realize they didn't have to worry about getting beat deep. They realize it now, and our passing game is below average because of it.

    The defense, despite injuries, has actually been okay. Not great, but not bad. Hopefully they can play even better or we won't win a playoff game.
     
  3. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    I lb ortega after r1 and r2. Honestly dont think he cared about winning rounds, his gameplan was to tire out diego and finish in r3. He said as much in interviews.

    I was right about tumenov and stipe but then lb away all my winnings on carlos.

    On a card with many close fights i agree Westcott was best value. I had about 6u on him but then hedged some of it after mmagf said garcia was live.
     
  4. null Gold Belt

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    I managed to get $25 on Morono at +400 to win $100 at one point during the fight and I was even more surprised than Morono that he won when Bruce Buffer read the decision.
     
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Winging wild punches that miss by a foot don't score you pts? Pfft, hogwash. Leonard Garcia had that 30-26 for Morono.
     
  6. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    In regards to tj v cruz i heavily favour TJ. Basically cruz is an unkown and to some extent ring rust and being out will effect him.

    On the other hand we have TJ who is amazing right now. Sure TJ can lose but i dont see him being a severe dog against anyone.

    Cruz def winning the psychological game tho
     
  7. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Lol - Morono's reaction was pretty awesome. I like his fighting style. He reminds me a bit of Lauzon for some reason.
     
  8. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I was sort of on the fence about it, but someone brought up a pretty interesting point and it goes along with what Cruz was saying. Both fighters are not stationary targets and thrive on movement. Cruz says TJ hasn't faced people like that, but I disagree. The two people he faced that rely on quick movement and striking with that are Dodson and Assuncao. Dodson was early in the career so I think it's fair to discount that, but Assuncao was using movement really well and TJ had some trouble with it (although he didn't look bad). Cruz faced Mighty Mouse who obviously uses a shitload of movement and was able to deal with him. For me, it's hard to back Dillashaw as a favorite given that. The other thing that I think is important with Cruz is that he can make Dillashaw look bad even if Cruz isn't landing much offense himself, but I don't think Dillashaw can do the same. I also think Cruz is more likely to land takedowns.

    If it was even odds I don't know who I'd back, but at dog odds, it has to be Cruz for me. I also forgot to mention the Soto fight with Dillashaw. I was not impressed with him in that one.
     
  9. KampSiver Green Belt

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    hmmm. How good is Renan Barao?.. Maybe we are overrating TJ based on beating him so dominately twice. Looking at the guys Barao beat, is not necessarily all that impressive.. (Jorgenson, Mcdonald, Wineland, Pickett) With Faber being by far the most impressive.

    Not to go based on MMA math, but I think Cruz beats all of those guys and Barao as well. Maybe Cruz is actually a perfect matchup to beat TJ with his constant movement and we are just assuming TJ's standup is better than it actually is based on the beatings he gave Barao.

    ** I'm hoping Cruz hits like +140 or high and I'll be on him.
     
  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    My concern isn't whether the best version of Cruz could beat this version of TJ (I'd favor that Cruz, though slightly). My concern is he has exactly 1 minute of actual fight time in the last 4+ years! With the added bonus of multiple knee surgeries. He took Mizugaki down right away and won easily. Do we have any idea if his movement is really what it was 4 years ago? Or even close? Maybe it is, but how do we know?
     
  11. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Minnesota -7.5 (+100) for half a unit because im getting greedy
     
  12. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Man, I know its still kind of close, but barring something crazy don't see Packers winning. They're playing horrible. Prob gonna be my biggest winning football day if Vikes pull through, even though thats not saying much lol
     
  13. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I hit wins by more than 13 at +250 a few min ago lol getting greedy myself
     
  14. iGnP Silver Belt

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    teddy heard us and decided to do that crap. i swear that may have been the stupidest decision ive seen all year
     
  15. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Not sure if I agree (with guida for example). Guida is tapping pretty easily at times... And he'd play in Ortega's guard all fight
     
  16. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Luckily for us it was one mistake, while the Packers just don't stop playing like garbage
     
  17. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    Good points O. I do think the tds from cruz makes things interesting for winning rounds. TJ does have strong wrestling so cruz will need to for 'em tho.

    At +150 or +200 i will probably be on cruz. I plan to lb this after r1 once we see more from cruz and see their respective gameplans.

    I think by the time fight day arrives TJ will be at a distinct mental disadvantage as cruz has 2 weeks to get embedded under his skin

    Ps. On a separate note i am high on ortega and will back him next time around against anyone middle of the pack
     
  18. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    NBA question:

    Exactly how bad do you have to be to be trailing the Lakers by 32 pts in the third quarter this season?
     
  19. iGnP Silver Belt

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    lakers have picked it up since Kobe became rejuvenated. theyve been my secret darling money cow as of late

    that ad the suns lost their best player
     
  20. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    This fucking game man. Hopefully its another nail biter that goes our way.
     
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