Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Oblivian, Jan 3, 2016.
one more stop pleaseeeeeeeeee
Booom what a pick!! Back to being greedy, lets break a run for a TD for the more than 13 point win!!
too close for comfort lol
Great fourth quarter from GB. Thank God for that interception Rodgers threw.
Laying the juice on Dilly but I'm waiting for some better odds.... my site has TJ at -155. I think Soto's loss (despite looking good) and/or the trash talk promo with Dom evened it out slightly, it was -160 a few days ago.
I'm hoping to see it drop to -135 or -125 by weigh in day. Going to drop about $250.
I can imagine liking the style match-up for Cruz in theory but I can't imagine betting him on 1 fight in about 5 years.
The odds are closer than they should be considering the circumstances. It also isn't as if Cruz had no issues with TJ's teammates in their bouts.
Over 7 months of betting, my return on bankroll is 71.2%. This is after a huge three fight skid that knocked me down from 125%. All three bets were stupid in retrospect---not good plays that didn't pan out like Barboza over Ferguson, but shit bets like Hendo over Belfort.
New Year's resolution is to focus on quality.
Thanks to Oblivian and the other thread contributors. I will try to contribute more in the new year.
EDIT: Just to be clear, I've only been doing this for 7 months. I wasn't trying to choose a convenient starting date to make myself look good.
I'm a bit surprised by your play on Cruz. I think Cruz has never fought anyone like Dillashaw , Dillashaw holds the athletic and attitudinal advantages. Add in the layoff/injuries and I won't touch Cruz unless his price gets way better.
To me Fight Goes to Decision is 80-85% likely to hit. Both guys dance around a lot. I forsee long periods of inactivity. I can definitely imagine Cruz stealing rounds and winning that way, so maybe that's what you're thinking.
Did well last week thanks to Dober (good capping, added a bit when odds increased so was fairly big on him) and the chick fight (bad capping, was gonna pass but odds got better).
Also I love Cruz's way of talking, dude looks like that Littlefinger guy when he was in the Wire.
Gonna spend a record amount of time capping stuff for this event, new year and I want to make it a record year. Hard work pays off and all that crap.
In other news Pokerstars started up a betting site. It seems ok-ish.
One fight in over 4 years...no way i can bet Cruz unless his line increases significantly. I will be steering clear of this fight it's a lb fight for sure to see how Cruz looks in r1.
I have 2u on Dillashaw but i semi-regret it. So many unknown factors. My reasoning was that Cruz has had 1 fight in 4 years and that TJ seems so keep improving with Duane at a pretty good pace.
Latifi looks in shape.
Favorites on the left?
T.J. Dillashaw vs. Dominick Cruz
Anthony Pettis vs. Eddie Alvarez
Travis Browne vs. Matt Mitrione
Ross Pearson vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Ben Saunders vs. Patrick Cote
Mairbek Taisumov vs. Chris Wade
Maximo Blanco vs. TBA
Paul Felder vs. Daron Cruickshank
Tim Boetsch vs. Ed Herman
Charles Rosa vs. Jimy Hettes
Ilir Latifi vs. Sean O'Connell
Rob Font vs. Joey Gomez
Abdul-Kerim Edilov vs. Francimar Barroso
Just so everyone knows, DJ didn't train mma full time until after the first McCall fight. Want to play Cruz so bad but just remembered that lol fight goes the distance is by far the safest bet, agree with waigoron it's hard to see this not going five a majority of the time
I had Morono down as part of a parlay. Morono and Duston to win on points, McDonald (who I thought was a shoo-in) to win.
Small bet only, but it turned out nice
I reckon Cote will be the favourite vs Saunders.
Kerim Edilov my favorite lhw prospect since Jiri Prochazka
Hope he's not too big a fave
lol @ guida going for a take down only to get subbed by Ortega thoughts, degen quality of life haha
Cruz shouldnt be compared to other fighters when talking about ring rust.
If the Mizugaki fight tells us anything, he is an explosion waiting to happen with time creating pressure, not rust.
He has the drive of a champion and i dont think he believes anyone else has claim to the BW title.
Cruz's talent and professionalism shouldnt be taken lightly. I dont think Barao would have fared any better against him, and TJ, while talented, just is not the encyclopedia Cruz is.
I like the under in this fight and Cruz to finish.
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