1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »

UFC Fight Night 81 - Dillashaw vs Cruz

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Oblivian, Jan 3, 2016.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. iGnP Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2012
    Messages:
    11,728
    Likes Received:
    10
    one more stop pleaseeeeeeeeee
     
  2. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    22,457
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    NJ
    Booom what a pick!! Back to being greedy, lets break a run for a TD for the more than 13 point win!!
     
  3. iGnP Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2012
    Messages:
    11,728
    Likes Received:
    10
    too close for comfort lol
     
  4. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    22,457
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    NJ
    Great fourth quarter from GB. Thank God for that interception Rodgers threw.
     
  5. Cptn1NSAN0 shows no mercy

    Joined:
    May 16, 2008
    Messages:
    12,754
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    High altitude
    Laying the juice on Dilly but I'm waiting for some better odds.... my site has TJ at -155. I think Soto's loss (despite looking good) and/or the trash talk promo with Dom evened it out slightly, it was -160 a few days ago.

    I'm hoping to see it drop to -135 or -125 by weigh in day. Going to drop about $250.
     
  6. Scythe Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2004
    Messages:
    4,534
    Likes Received:
    1
    I can imagine liking the style match-up for Cruz in theory but I can't imagine betting him on 1 fight in about 5 years.

    The odds are closer than they should be considering the circumstances. It also isn't as if Cruz had no issues with TJ's teammates in their bouts.
     
  7. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2009
    Messages:
    15,124
    Likes Received:
    0
    Over 7 months of betting, my return on bankroll is 71.2%. This is after a huge three fight skid that knocked me down from 125%. All three bets were stupid in retrospect---not good plays that didn't pan out like Barboza over Ferguson, but shit bets like Hendo over Belfort.

    New Year's resolution is to focus on quality.

    Thanks to Oblivian and the other thread contributors. I will try to contribute more in the new year.

    EDIT: Just to be clear, I've only been doing this for 7 months. I wasn't trying to choose a convenient starting date to make myself look good.
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2016
  8. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2009
    Messages:
    15,124
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ob,

    I'm a bit surprised by your play on Cruz. I think Cruz has never fought anyone like Dillashaw , Dillashaw holds the athletic and attitudinal advantages. Add in the layoff/injuries and I won't touch Cruz unless his price gets way better.

    To me Fight Goes to Decision is 80-85% likely to hit. Both guys dance around a lot. I forsee long periods of inactivity. I can definitely imagine Cruz stealing rounds and winning that way, so maybe that's what you're thinking.
     
  9. iGnP Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2012
    Messages:
    11,728
    Likes Received:
    10
    DJ?
     
  10. Slohog Green Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2015
    Messages:
    1,122
    Likes Received:
    2
    Did well last week thanks to Dober (good capping, added a bit when odds increased so was fairly big on him) and the chick fight (bad capping, was gonna pass but odds got better).

    Also I love Cruz's way of talking, dude looks like that Littlefinger guy when he was in the Wire.

    Gonna spend a record amount of time capping stuff for this event, new year and I want to make it a record year. Hard work pays off and all that crap.

    In other news Pokerstars started up a betting site. It seems ok-ish.
     
  11. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    12,236
    Likes Received:
    0
    One fight in over 4 years...no way i can bet Cruz unless his line increases significantly. I will be steering clear of this fight it's a lb fight for sure to see how Cruz looks in r1.
     
  12. Agent Mulder Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2015
    Messages:
    5,126
    Likes Received:
    0
    I have 2u on Dillashaw but i semi-regret it. So many unknown factors. My reasoning was that Cruz has had 1 fight in 4 years and that TJ seems so keep improving with Duane at a pretty good pace.
     
  13. Slohog Green Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2015
    Messages:
    1,122
    Likes Received:
    2
    Latifi looks in shape.
    [​IMG]
     
  14. Card Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2012
    Messages:
    13,470
    Likes Received:
    564
    Location:
    K-Dub Canada
    Favorites on the left?

    T.J. Dillashaw vs. Dominick Cruz
    Anthony Pettis vs. Eddie Alvarez
    Travis Browne vs. Matt Mitrione
    Ross Pearson vs. Francisco Trinaldo
    Ben Saunders vs. Patrick Cote
    Mairbek Taisumov vs. Chris Wade
    Maximo Blanco vs. TBA
    Paul Felder vs. Daron Cruickshank
    Tim Boetsch vs. Ed Herman
    Charles Rosa vs. Jimy Hettes
    Ilir Latifi vs. Sean O'Connell
    Rob Font vs. Joey Gomez
    Abdul-Kerim Edilov vs. Francimar Barroso
     
  15. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    22,457
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    NJ
    Just so everyone knows, DJ didn't train mma full time until after the first McCall fight. Want to play Cruz so bad but just remembered that lol fight goes the distance is by far the safest bet, agree with waigoron it's hard to see this not going five a majority of the time
     
  16. HUGHPHUG ALL CAPS YO

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2013
    Messages:
    20,052
    Likes Received:
    17,250
    Location:
    The D.A.I.S.Y. Age
    I had Morono down as part of a parlay. Morono and Duston to win on points, McDonald (who I thought was a shoo-in) to win.

    Small bet only, but it turned out nice
     
  17. vkram Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2014
    Messages:
    4,527
    Likes Received:
    12
    I reckon Cote will be the favourite vs Saunders.
     
  18. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    22,457
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    NJ
    Kerim Edilov my favorite lhw prospect since Jiri Prochazka :D

    Hope he's not too big a fave
     
  19. Ukram Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2013
    Messages:
    13,695
    Likes Received:
    10
    lol @ guida going for a take down only to get subbed by Ortega thoughts, degen quality of life haha
     
  20. trident Water Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2012
    Messages:
    15,430
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    beneath a hovering whining mosquito
    Cruz shouldnt be compared to other fighters when talking about ring rust.

    If the Mizugaki fight tells us anything, he is an explosion waiting to happen with time creating pressure, not rust.

    He has the drive of a champion and i dont think he believes anyone else has claim to the BW title.

    Cruz's talent and professionalism shouldnt be taken lightly. I dont think Barao would have fared any better against him, and TJ, while talented, just is not the encyclopedia Cruz is.

    I like the under in this fight and Cruz to finish.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.