UFC Fight Night 81 - Dillashaw vs Cruz

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Ilir is in great shape! Nice with the flowers and Ahlgrens bilar (swedish candy) .
 
First time in a long time that I've seen rippled abs on Ed Herman. Tim Boetsch, on the other hand, looks like he just got off of the couch and decided to take a fight on short notice at a higher weightclass.
 
Trinaldo looks great on the scale. Pearson looks good, but I think he's looked better before.
 
Yeah cote is tempting, probably better he does not take the fight to the ground at all or does his best to get back to his feet.

I think 2 weeks of debating pearson and trinaldo has been more then enough, was surprised quite a few mma sites picking trinaldo even sherdogs prediction preview! and as much as I do rate and think pearson is better, Trinaldo via split decision is in the back of my mind !

Dude if i get fucked on another split so close to the last card i will combust!
 
Minor black-eye under Eddie's right eye. Also, his face looked like Chris Cariaso while he was sucked in on the scale.

Eddie had his running shoes on while he did the staredown with Pettis, and he was leaning forward to make himself eye-to-eye with Pettis. Eddie shrinks when they separate, aka he's noticeably shorter, which we already knew.
 
fight pass:

mutapcic-barroso
mutapcic looks good despite the short notice, in at 201
barroso looks good, in at 205
as expected, they are actually similarly sized. barroso might be an inch taller

font-gomez
gomez suuuuuper lean. looks good, tho
font looks solid after the layoff
gomez is 2" taller. font looks stronger.

rosa-bochniak
bochniak looks good, too, considering the last minute replacement
rosa looks good. lil bit drawn out, but good
rosa is 2" taller, looks bigger

o'connell-latifi
o'connell looks mediocre as always. can't believe he hasn't gone down to 185 yet.
latifi a freakin tank, looks as good as ever
o'connell is 3" taller

cruickshank-felder
cruickshank looks alright. bit soft (not the first time for him). makes it.
felder looks phenomenal as always
felder is like 3-4" taller (cruick had shoes on)

fs1 prelims:

blanco-sanders
sanders looks good, but not as good as he does with full camp and at 135.
blanco looks freakin RIPPED. looks like the best cut he's ever made (tho he prayed at the scale) he made it
blanco is 1" taller

baghdad-wade
baghdad long and lean, looks similar to when he was on TUF.. but 157.. wait, wait, towel after some consternation.. this chick can't figure out how the scale works... they now say 156. whew, i almost doubled my wade -3.5 bet.
wade ripped as hell as always, looks great
baghdad is 3-4" taller

herman-boetsch
herman up to 205, and he looks heavy, yea, but i wouldn't say he looks terrible. just thicker.
boetsch on the other hand looks kinda bad back up at 205. i mean, he never looks great, but he looks soft.
herman is 2-3" taller

cote-saunders
saunders looks good. tall and rangey.. normal for him
cote looks solid for him, same as he's been looking the last couple years.
saunders is indeed 2-3" taller

fs1 main:

trinaldo-pearson
trinaldo looks looks as good as he ever has, imo. doesn't seem like a tough cut for him.. another older fighter really finding his groove late?
pearson looks decent, same as always at 155 for him
trinaldo is like 1" taller

mitrione-browne
meathead looks ok for him. kinda soft, but just big. normal. 249
browne looks really good. (lots of boos). 238
browne is 3" taller

alvarez-pettis
alvarez looks outstanding, ripped as hell. he always is, but this is as good as ever. loud chants for eddie
pettis looks a lil bit drained.. but he looks in excellent shape. he looks focused
pettis is prolly an inch taller, maybe two (eddie had shoes on)

cruz-dillashaw
cruz lookin solid, super focused
dillashaw shredded as hell as always, big boo's
cruz is 2" taller

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decided to let my blanco action ride, he looked awesome. had good cut
 
Blanco and Sauders look to be the same size; Sauders even looks thicker and more muscular of the two, surprisingly.
 
Dude if i get fucked on another split so close to the last card i will combust!

Trinaldo did look decent on the weigh ins, so did pearson. Alvarez looked ripped with those abs and tank like physique and pettis just looked similar but good.

Stick to that parlay its what you do best and ill stick with lbs, am hoping that last card was just a rare bad instance where nothing went right !
 

Blanco and Sauders look to be the same size; Sauders even looks thicker and more muscular of the two, surprisingly.
Sanders is a 135`er fighting at 145 on short notice, which means he's near his maximum weight. Blanco will be the heavier of the two when they step into the octagon tomorrow.
 
Really need to catch up in here i haven't logged on since the new betting forum. Looks like we got our thread back tho! On page 8 I need to catch up lol

Will post my picks later
 
I've been staring at that line but likely won't play it til the day of.

How I see the factors,

Athleticism - Close to equal, 55 Travis / 45 Mitrione
Mid range qualities - Mitrione
Ability to absorb damage - Browne

Matt's has fundamentals in his straight punches and he throws a very awkward but effective right hand when he catches guys ducking their head (De Fries, Lewis). He'll mix in his kicks too but I noticed he usually finishes with his hands. His downfall from what I've come away with from tape is he has lapses where he stops moving after his combinations and opponents just catch him there, or at the end of his combos etc.

Browne is as tough as they come, and if he is able to eat Mitrione's best shots and maybe find a pattern in Mitrione's defense and deliver with a critical strike to end the fight there. Also, he should be the better fighter if it hits the ground. He has fight ending moves in his arsenal but none of the fundamentals IMO. I truly believe working with Edmond will be his downfall, if not this fight then his next fight.

I'll go with the +130 dog but man I sometimes can't get these HW fights correctly.

I can see the argument for Mitrione for sure, and agree with a lot of what you said. Much better fundamentals and a good jab from Mitrione. But I really think Browne will look to take it to the ground at some point, where Mitirone is just helpless. Even if he has to absorb some damage to do it. Hit Browne sub +1030 or something when it came out.
 
UFC Fight Night 73 +5.2
UFC190/WSOF22 +.26u
UFC on Fox 16 -0.80u
UFC Fight Night 74 -5.25u

Have not been around for the last few events. Excited to be back as I love this thread and think it no doubt helps your handicapping and is an awesome resource.

So pumped for this card. This is what I am leaning on right now. Will finalize tonight.

Alvarez
Browne
Trinaldo
Herman
Blanco
Felder
Latifi
Bochniak
 
I'm starting to really like Browne.

The only question is how much do you want to commit to a HW fight...
 
IMO browne looked defeated. the boos and just all of it looked like it was in his head. meathead had his crazy eye again. look out for meathead to finish this one. i do not think browne is as good as we thought he was
 
I still can't believe I was on the wrong end of 4 split decisions last time out so hoping for better here.

I've got:

Cruz
Pearson (asking for another split loss here!)
Cote
Browne
Mutapcic
Pettis ITD
Boetsch/Herman Doesn't go to decision
Wade/Baghdad Doesn't go to decision
 
my picks. "not my wagers" still thinking about where i want to attack the lines. but picks.
cruz
herman ITD
meathead ITD
alvarez dec
pearson dec
saunders ITD
my upset. detroit superstar to ko felder.
 
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