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UFC Fight Night 81 - Dillashaw vs Cruz

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Oblivian, Jan 3, 2016.

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  1. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I feel like at HW durability just matters so much more than at other weight classes. You're right, Browne really isn't anything special. And as was mentioned I think he keeps fighting even when hurt and I don't think Mitrione really does. At lower weight classes no way is that the factor it is at HW. I guess maybe because HW's just seem so much worse at slipping punches so someone seems to land something really significant way more often? And I guess if that happens it's just so much easier to back the guy who's shown he can get hit, even hurt, and still keep throwing and win.

    In other words in this fight: It's probably not slanted one way or the other too much as to which guy lands something big first. Both are capable, and it's likely one of them will (and probably early). If it's Mitrione, I think we can have at least some confidence that Browne would have a chance to weather it and keep fighting and still be dangerous. If Browne lands it, do we have anywhere near that level of confidence that Mitrione survives? I sure don't. He tapped so quickly in his last fight, there has to be questions about whether he can deal with any adversity in the cage at all. I think the odds sort of reflect this so it's not like I think there's huge value on Travis (though maybe a little), but no way would I back Mitrione at anything under about +200 here. Sure, he can win. But Browne has to be the favorite imo.
     
  2. MMAJay Green Belt

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    Can someone please explain to me what the "SU" bet means and ellaborate on what the "NO scorecards" bet means? Can you get the NO scorecard bets on 5D?

    My thoughts on Browne/Mitrione:

    Im leaning more and more towards Meathead in this one. After listening to his interview, he sounded like he made some improvements, that can eliminate his brainfarts (atleast some of them). I think he will stay away from the TD's (Ben Rothwell still trying to pull his head of his body should worry him enough), but I also think that he thinks about what Browne was/is able to do in the clinch/over underhook situation.
    I don't see why Meathead couldn't do the same thing to Browne as Arlovski did. Arlovski has the better boxing, but if Meathead is utilizing his jab and setting up his overhand right, I think we could see the same outcome as the Arlovski fight. Meathead will fight smart by utilizing his leg kicks in the beginning and setting up the overhand right. IMO Meathead is faster than Arlovski, so I don't see why he wouldn't be able to connect clean aswell.

    We know that Browne is tough as nails, but if he were to survive the 1st round, I easily see Meathead fighting smart the last two rounds to secure a Unanomous Dec. I also think that all the "Emotional" factors are to underrated. In this situation where Browne has lost a brutal TKO, Rousey's last outing and bad energy and of course Edmond that is probably still carrying around on that Rousey depression. I don't think his mind is clear enough to fight again already.

    My leans:

    Over 1.5
    Meathead ITD

    Herman vs. Boetsch:

    The grittyness vs. The grittyness. I think this is a perfect matchup for Mr. Boetsch. He does very well in these types of fights outside Top 10. I see a too sloppy Herman that can take a punch against a Boetsch that can take a punch aswell but will be the fighter with the higher output everywhere. I think he will be the one to push the pace, and I don't see Herman controlling Boetsch on the ground. By nature, Boetsch is just the guy that wants it more than Herman, and that should be enough to get the dec or late stoppage. Herman got a chin on him, but I don't see him taking too many of Boetsch' uppercuts and knees in the clinch. If everything that I just wrote fails in the fight, I still see Boetsch winning by being more active with a will to win even though his gas tank is emptying. Boestch is one of the few guys that goes after it when he is told so by his coaches. (Okami fight was a great example) :)

    Boestch by DEC
    Boestch by late stoppage
    Over 1.5 (this one because Boestch will take it easy in the beginning and Herman would love that aswell)

    Sorry for the wall of text :) Always find it hard too keep it short.
     
  3. jmac1985 White Belt

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    Makdessi and Pearson clearly win fights but they have tentative counter-punching styles, which do not win over sub standard mma judges.

    Really interested to see how TJ Dillashaw's defensive wrestling holds up. I see major risks to Cruz from head kicks after exchanges ( Anthony Johnson special )
     
  4. thesharktank Brown Belt

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  5. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Did you change your mind on a few fights such as Pearson and TJ?

    Also Boetsch no longer with Hume he trains at home now with Marcus Davis.
     
  6. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Trinaldo split +1000. Think worth a hedge at thise odds.
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    read my mind
     
  8. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    re: event props..

    IMO:

    likely decisions:
    cruz-dillashaw
    trinaldo-pearson
    sanders-blanco
    wade-baghdad
    barroso-mutapcic

    could go dec:
    pettis-alvarez
    cote-saunders
    felder-cruickshank
    herman-boetsch
    rosa-bochniak

    likely finishes:
    latifi-o'connell
    gomez-font
    mitrione-browne

    that's how i see it.. i actually think we might get 7+ decisions. in fact, gonna go play that (O6.5 dec etc)
     
  9. arrelione Red Belt

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    I'll be on Cruz, Mittrione, Gomez, O Connel, Wade ITD, Saunders, Cruickshank by dec & Herman by dec.
     
  10. zomb No soap for you Platinum Member

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  11. zomb No soap for you Platinum Member

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    SU = straight up. Like a regular bet

    No scorecards = The bets gets voided when it goes to a decision. Say you bet Cruz No scorecards, only way you will win the bet is if Cruz wins ITD. Only way you lose the bet is TJ ITD. if it goes to a decision the bet gets cancelled, no matter who wins.

    Good way to bet on a guy if you only see him winning ITD. yeah you get them on 5D
     
  12. OneWarrior1 Brown Belt

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    I like

    TJ
    Pettis
    Rosa
    Cruickshank
    Boetsch
    Meathead
     
  13. wigglestick pess de gward Platinum Member

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    So in this thread we discuss who we like and why we like our bets, and in mulders thread we post are finalized and later added bets?
     
  14. zomb No soap for you Platinum Member

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    i think that would be a good setup. that way people don't have to read throught 20 pages to find what their favorite pickers bets

    i guess these first few events will just be a tryout period for this subforum to find out what works best
     
  15. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    I pretty much agree with this. But both guys are so dependent on athletic talent and physical gifts that slight technical modifications can dramatically change outcomes. Both guys have massive holes in their games...take for example the choke Rothwell hit on Mitrione. WTF was that...
     
  16. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I am really liking Cote by dec. +250.
    Latifi rd 1 makes no sense now at +150. Might as well just bet him by KO/TKO at +125.
    I think Pettis rd 2 +450 might be worth a little stab. Eddie might be outclassed but he's tough as hell. I could easily see him getting beat up in rd 1 but surviving only to be stopped in rd 2.
    Liking Pearson by dec a little at +147.
     
  17. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Gonna hit that too. I think Cote/Killa B falls more into "likely".
     
  18. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    That was Meathead panicking and tapping so quickly even Big Ben was probably surprised. And that goes to what I said a little I think. I'm not sure if he's capable of overcoming adversity in the cage. We know Browne is, for all the holes he has in his game (and he has them). Some guys are great when they are the hammer but fold instantly when they are the nail. Mitrione may well be one of those guys. And at HW, where clean punches seem to land more often, you can't be that guy and expect to be overly successful. In that division you are going to get hit.
     
  19. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    The more I think about Browne vs Mits the more I can't see a way Browne wins this without getting it to the mat. Mits has nice boxing, much better than Browne's who when I think about it doesn't really have very good boxing and relies more on funky shit. I think Mits melting Browne with a left straight is likely

    EDIT right after posting this saw on Edmond TarverdyGOAT's twitter Browne working pads and his hands def look good. We'll see if he can slip that left tonight though or if he'll just keep the head on the center line. Its a big factor in this fight imo
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2016
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Pearson by dec+Cote by dec+TJ by dec paying +2275. Liking it. These are the 3 most likely outcomes imo.

    Would probably hedge a little if first two hit but I like this as a mini hail mary parlay.
     
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