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UFC Fight Night 81 - Dillashaw vs Cruz

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Oblivian, Jan 3, 2016.

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  1. Dooze Purple Belt

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    It was +1200 on 365. Had a small bet on it since I assumed if Ortega wins it'd be finish later in the fight.

    Had a punt on Lawler r4 @ +2000 and Lawler r5 @ +2500. Thought I was going to hit it during those final few minutes of round 5. I quite like doing those Fighter to finish in round _ bets, especially when it's fighters that get stronger as the fight goes on. You can get some really good odds on them at times if the odds on the fighter SU aren't well short.
     
  2. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    After watching a few interviews its hard not to have confidence in Cruz. I am just waiting for the line to change and then bet either guy. I like Cruz at 2 to1 or TJ at evens. The fight is close enough that I don't want to pay juice on either guy.

    I also really like "fight goes the distance" and already bet (to win) 2u. I can see this fight being a really close split decision.

    Nick Kalikas had a video where he was saying he thought the line would for sure change come closer to fight time.... either tighten up or we could see Cruz become 2 to1 dog.
     
  3. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Same, and exact same bet, too
     
  4. Ukram Silver Belt

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    thoughts on cruz/tj, long read !

    Both made great points in there recent debate spate about tj fighting stationary targets, then tj suggesting his movement won't mean much since he rarely connects anyhow, clearly both guys know each other very well.

    I feel cruz does mix in his foot work, body movement and head movement well, it sets up his take downs and jabs which most rarely see coming, even against mizugaki, cruz looked good just like his former self. Speedy footwork, setting up his powerful take down with the added bonus of 3 years wait of gnp on poor mizugaki's face. Then more injuries and another 16 months off he is back but I don't think cruz is going to come back slower or poorer, especially if he did not the first time round and after 3 years wait. Cruz also won't be willing to fight if he is injured or not able to fight as good as he usually can.

    Tj does much of what cruz does, great foot work, speed and naturally explosive athletic ability. I think most of his opponents end up looking stationary targets due to tjs ability to cut them off during striking exchanges, one second he is throwing a powerful left hook, next second he is off centre towards his opponents right following it up with a right hand, knee or HK, his opponents literally have no where else to move too, he is just that fast at cutting guys off. He also showed ability to move his hips and get back to his feet if taken down no doubt his NCAA wrestling skill showing.

    Its still a hard fight for cruz really, he would have to mix in take downs per round to win them effectively it is something he is capable of and he has done so well but just not against tjs calibre.
    Tj would need to mix in his knees and HK just as much to land on cruz's longer and taller body frame, he could perhaps mix in body shots since cruz has good head movement.

    Both have good solid cardio and both are durable, so I like the overs or going the distance, gun to head I think tj still lands the better shots, just more athletic and connects better then cruz does, he also has better ability to close the gap imo, cruz tends to veer off creating more distance in his style. So my Pick is Tj, but overs is safest followed by going the distance.
     
  5. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Fighter to win in x round always has tremendous value if you can get a good feel for the fight. Have hit that a couple times, Rockhold vs Weidman, TJ vs Barao, Glover vs OSP off the top of my head
     
  6. Roger FedorAIR It ain't easy being white

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    http://www.sherdog.com/events/UFC-Fight-Night-81-Dillashaw-vs-Cruz-47783

    [​IMG]

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    UFN 81 - Dillashaw vs Cruz betting thread

    Post your bets, general discussion, and fight night play by play here. Please post all breakdowns/analysis and other matchup-specific talk in the thread for for that particular fight, so as to be courteous to those that can't post here daily.
     
  7. Ukram Silver Belt

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    Pettis on fighting alvarez

    -Elbow surgery 6 months back
    -6 months off due to recovery
    -Thinks Alvarez is a tough guy but he beat Gil recently so feels it is a good come back fight
    -Still wants his back belt, suggest he had a bad day at the office against RDA
    -Not opposed to fighting Connor or Aldo

    Promo of Alvarez vs Pettis (mainly hl reel stuff)
     
  8. Roger FedorAIR It ain't easy being white

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    Official for UFN 81, Jan 17.

    FS1 Main card

    Main Event - 5 rounds for the Bantamweight Title


    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 4, 2016
  9. Roger FedorAIR It ain't easy being white

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    Official for UFN 81, Jan 17.

    FS1 Main card

    co-main event

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 4, 2016
  10. Subli Black Belt

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    I can confirm this !

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  11. Roger FedorAIR It ain't easy being white

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    Official for UFN 81, Jan 17.

    FS1 Main card

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 4, 2016
  12. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    not sure about killa-B being favored over cote, but prolly close
    also not sure on wade-taisumov.

    i have no idea whil edilov is so i can't comment ont hat one
     
  13. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    i genuinely think the O4.5 is better than TJ straight as the lines presently sit, they're close in price
     
  14. Ukram Silver Belt

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    Thoughts on Alvarez vs Pettis

    Its tricky to work out or predict Eddie, he looked perhaps better against a gassed Gil in his last fight so everything he did looked slightly better. Eddie did show us he can go for take downs, clasp guys legs together and hold them down something Gil had success with against Pettis and RDA took that approach to another level. But overall Pettis has a major striking advantage, give him space and he excels with his accurate jabs, kicks and eddie struggles to close the gap more so against this approach.

    I feel eddie will need to be pushing pettis against the cage and working on take downs for most of the fight to get a win here, giving pettis any form of distance and it will look like cowboy all over again. Pettis has improved his ttd more and displayed good hips and escapes even against Gil, so overall I think he gets the job done here, hopefully pettis does not get cut off and stuck against the cage. Great fight to live bet on, lines may change if eddie finds success pushing and holding pettis against the cage but otherwise I like Pettis su or as parlay fodder, 1.5 or 2.5 overs are perhaps safer plays.
     
  15. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Felder should be a pretty good matchup Cruickshank, no? If the price on him is decent i will probably be on him. Felder looked very hesitant in his last fight against Pearson, didn't really pull the trigger. I can see Cruickshank edging a decision here.
     
  16. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Agree on everything except the overs. I like Pettis as parlay fodder. I think Pettis can finish Eddie here, he is so dangerous. Finished Benson, Cerrone and Lauzon in round 1.
     
  17. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Think Felder is just a better version of Cruick. Hoping lines are playable i'll be all over Felder
     
  18. Roger FedorAIR It ain't easy being white

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    Official for UFN 81, Jan 17.

    FS1 Main card

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 4, 2016
  19. Card Silver Belt

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    Why is Pettis -300? If Alvarez can takedown a roided up Melendez 3 times, he can takedown Pettis.
     
  20. Roger FedorAIR It ain't easy being white

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    I'm capping this fight as Pearson as a slight favorite, but have a feeling that he might open in the -180 range, at which point I'll be playing Trinaldo. Thoughts?
     
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