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UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sono07, Feb 14, 2021.

  1. Sono07 Brown Belt

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    EtPUUJKVkAE5CdP.jpg
     
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  2. smooth assassin Brown Belt

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    Rooting for Lewis
    But Blaydes should have this
     
  3. Invictis Brown Belt

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    Yeah I grew up in Houston, so I love Lewis, just your stereotypical Houstonian.

    And he walks out to "tops drop" which was a staple of my childhood.

    But Blaydes ITD is the play here.
     
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  4. Fincher7 Brown Belt

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    I could see this going similar to how Blaydes/Volkov went but with Lewis doing a better job of putting in on him in those later rounds.
     
  5. GoldenWolf87 Brown Belt

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    Blaydes has the tools to win it ITD hopefully.
    I dont mind if some would go with Lewis as the underdog. I think its safer to bet Lewis live bet. I could see Blaydes taking first round.
     
  6. Broe. Brown Belt

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    Who is Daniel Chavez?
     
  7. Sono07 Brown Belt

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    He fights out of MMA Masters (Colby's new team). Good counter boxing, low kick and fast hands. If it stays standing long enough he can probably KO Gordon, especially with Jared dropping from 155 to 145.

    Danny's wrestling looked good in his last fight as well. If Jared can't keep him down I think Danny is too fast and probably flash KO's Flash Gordon.
     
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  8. longway Purple Belt

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    Opening odds were great. Chavez does his best work when he has some space. If you get him going backwards and pressure him and make it a brawl, esp. if you mix in TDs and grappling, he can be beaten. That's Gordon's style. At current odds, I am personally only going to play the ITD or KO prop. If Jared wins, most likely by decision.
     
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  9. Invictis Brown Belt

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    Volkov has better cardio and is the much better fighter out of the two, despite Lewis landing a bomb on him with 15 seconds left.

    Volkov is so long that he made Blaydes work the entire time he was on the bottom.

    Lewis tends to accept whatever position you get into, and then just pop the fuck up.

    This has worked on average wrestlers, against the likes of DC and Blaydes, he can't last 5 rounds. Will he pop up a few times? Maybe. But Blaydes has heavy hands too, a long with a great chin.
     
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  10. longway Purple Belt

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    Can someone tell me why the odds between Casey O Neil and Shana Dobson is narrowing? Not much tape on O' Neil, but she has a clear PTV using her grappling. Seems like a gift, but is it just too good to be true?
     
  11. WolfgangKennelz Yellow Belt

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    I need to do more research, but I'm pretty sure I'm on O'Neil here.
    And as for Danny Chavez I've had bets locked in on him from like a month ago. Dude is ridiculously fast hands with power. Seems quick and explosive power in general. Still great value here. I keep adding but I was betting him at plus and even money for awhile. I'm all in on him as my top play right now
     
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  12. Sono07 Brown Belt

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    I don't even think Gordon trusts his chin enough to brawl anymore. His striking looked pretty bad in his last fight, he spent most of r3 on top basically slapping Fishgold unable to finish him.

    I am worried Jared could chain wrestle and steal rounds, even then Chavez seem like a knowledgeable wrestler himself. If Gordon can't lay and pray I think he gets picked apart on the feet.
     
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  13. Sono07 Brown Belt

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    Lewis actually gave a pretty good read of the fight when asked about Blaydes. Comparing Curtis to a crab in a bucket. Sounds about right, Derrick is probably going to keep getting pulled back down and eventually cooked.
     
  14. longway Purple Belt

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    This card looking really interesting from a betting perspective. I like the odds on Daukaus. Everyone is on to Olynik these days, not that his skills should not be respected, but he gives up quick gainst any decent striker with a modicum of TDD.

    I'm liking ITD Daukaus, R1 too, ITD Chavez, ITD Emmers, ITD O'Neil and ITD Blaydes. parlaying these could end up with a nice payday. Waiting for these lines to drop.

    Dogs I like are Kunitskaya, who could make it a long drawn out clinch fight, and Zahabi, who is very technical with his BJJ and very hard to keep down, this will make it harder for Rodrguez to grapple his way to a victory.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2021
  15. loller90278 Purple Belt

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    first reads:

    • Oleinik at +155 is a steal
    • Oleinik/Daukaus DNGTD seems like a safe bet
    • Minner/Rosa DNGTD seems like a safe bet. Minner SUB depending on what the odds are
    • Castaneda ML at -120 could still have a lot more value. Wineland is cooked glass cannon -- going to fade the old man
     
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  16. matthew55 Blue Belt

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    I like Castaneda too. I can't see Minner subbing Rosa after watching what he had to go through for 3 rounds vs Bryce Mitchell lol..if anything I think Rosa outlasts Minner's first round blitz and ends up subbing him.
     
  17. mmaday4day Green Belt

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    <TrumpWrong1>

    The old man is getting knocked the f out within 30 sec
     
  18. Fincher7 Brown Belt

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    Lewis is also quite a bit heavier than Volkov and his hips aren't such a prime target for a double leg like Volkov's are.

    [​IMG]

    That's not on offer against Lewis, he'll have to look for single legs and work against the cage much like DC did.

    The round ending also allows him to return to the feet with no effort. If he can survive being controlled without being finished to the point where Blaydes becomes fatigued, we may see one of his famous comeback finishes. He's supposed to be in much better shape these days too right? Didn't he have back surgery after the JDS loss?

    I may take Blaydes by sub and then Lewis by later KO in other plays.
     
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  19. guesswhoseback Orange Belt

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    Spivac-Dec
    Zahabi-KO1
    Skelly-Dec
    Oneil-Dec
    Landwher-Dec
    Wineland-KO2
    Klose-Dec
    Chavez-KO1
    Imamov-Sub1
    Aspinall-KO1
    Daukus-KO1
    Rosa-Dec
    Vieria-Dec
    Blades-KO3
     
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  20. GoldenWolf87 Brown Belt

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    I am going to bet Daukaus 1st RD KO. ITD
     
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