Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sono07, Feb 14, 2021.
Rooting for Lewis
But Blaydes should have this
Yeah I grew up in Houston, so I love Lewis, just your stereotypical Houstonian.
And he walks out to "tops drop" which was a staple of my childhood.
But Blaydes ITD is the play here.
I could see this going similar to how Blaydes/Volkov went but with Lewis doing a better job of putting in on him in those later rounds.
Blaydes has the tools to win it ITD hopefully.
I dont mind if some would go with Lewis as the underdog. I think its safer to bet Lewis live bet. I could see Blaydes taking first round.
Who is Daniel Chavez?
He fights out of MMA Masters (Colby's new team). Good counter boxing, low kick and fast hands. If it stays standing long enough he can probably KO Gordon, especially with Jared dropping from 155 to 145.
Danny's wrestling looked good in his last fight as well. If Jared can't keep him down I think Danny is too fast and probably flash KO's Flash Gordon.
Opening odds were great. Chavez does his best work when he has some space. If you get him going backwards and pressure him and make it a brawl, esp. if you mix in TDs and grappling, he can be beaten. That's Gordon's style. At current odds, I am personally only going to play the ITD or KO prop. If Jared wins, most likely by decision.
Volkov has better cardio and is the much better fighter out of the two, despite Lewis landing a bomb on him with 15 seconds left.
Volkov is so long that he made Blaydes work the entire time he was on the bottom.
Lewis tends to accept whatever position you get into, and then just pop the fuck up.
This has worked on average wrestlers, against the likes of DC and Blaydes, he can't last 5 rounds. Will he pop up a few times? Maybe. But Blaydes has heavy hands too, a long with a great chin.
Can someone tell me why the odds between Casey O Neil and Shana Dobson is narrowing? Not much tape on O' Neil, but she has a clear PTV using her grappling. Seems like a gift, but is it just too good to be true?
I need to do more research, but I'm pretty sure I'm on O'Neil here.
And as for Danny Chavez I've had bets locked in on him from like a month ago. Dude is ridiculously fast hands with power. Seems quick and explosive power in general. Still great value here. I keep adding but I was betting him at plus and even money for awhile. I'm all in on him as my top play right now
I don't even think Gordon trusts his chin enough to brawl anymore. His striking looked pretty bad in his last fight, he spent most of r3 on top basically slapping Fishgold unable to finish him.
I am worried Jared could chain wrestle and steal rounds, even then Chavez seem like a knowledgeable wrestler himself. If Gordon can't lay and pray I think he gets picked apart on the feet.
Lewis actually gave a pretty good read of the fight when asked about Blaydes. Comparing Curtis to a crab in a bucket. Sounds about right, Derrick is probably going to keep getting pulled back down and eventually cooked.
This card looking really interesting from a betting perspective. I like the odds on Daukaus. Everyone is on to Olynik these days, not that his skills should not be respected, but he gives up quick gainst any decent striker with a modicum of TDD.
I'm liking ITD Daukaus, R1 too, ITD Chavez, ITD Emmers, ITD O'Neil and ITD Blaydes. parlaying these could end up with a nice payday. Waiting for these lines to drop.
Dogs I like are Kunitskaya, who could make it a long drawn out clinch fight, and Zahabi, who is very technical with his BJJ and very hard to keep down, this will make it harder for Rodrguez to grapple his way to a victory.
Oleinik at +155 is a steal
Oleinik/Daukaus DNGTD seems like a safe bet
Minner/Rosa DNGTD seems like a safe bet. Minner SUB depending on what the odds are
Castaneda ML at -120 could still have a lot more value. Wineland is cooked glass cannon -- going to fade the old man
I like Castaneda too. I can't see Minner subbing Rosa after watching what he had to go through for 3 rounds vs Bryce Mitchell lol..if anything I think Rosa outlasts Minner's first round blitz and ends up subbing him.
The old man is getting knocked the f out within 30 sec
Lewis is also quite a bit heavier than Volkov and his hips aren't such a prime target for a double leg like Volkov's are.
That's not on offer against Lewis, he'll have to look for single legs and work against the cage much like DC did.
The round ending also allows him to return to the feet with no effort. If he can survive being controlled without being finished to the point where Blaydes becomes fatigued, we may see one of his famous comeback finishes. He's supposed to be in much better shape these days too right? Didn't he have back surgery after the JDS loss?
I may take Blaydes by sub and then Lewis by later KO in other plays.
I am going to bet Daukaus 1st RD KO. ITD
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