UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

[BigSteve]

Don't really recall that guy trying to grapple Daukaus though. He in fact did the complete opposite of what he should've done. Totally could see Daukaus putting the old man away here, but it feels too good to be true for some reason.

I mean he didn't really get a chance, pretty much first combo he threw dropped him, and it was all over after that. Olenik could face the same fate, he is so hittable and slow. He would need to rush into the clinch asap

 

[Stat_Collector]

Where did you find that? I was looking it up myself. I know his last opponent Martinez was a purple belt but I'd say Drako is less experienced based off that fight. He showed knowledgeable transitions but made alot of rookie mistakes and nearly got subbed for it.

When he first gets Martinez down he does a poor job of covering his hips, leaving way too much space. When he finally got into guard he had pretty poor posture/control.

Drako seemed slow to recognize the submission threat until his corner warned him of the arm trap. I'm not going to say he got lucky but I doubt that Martinez fight would play out the same way twice. In his post fight interview he admits to only committing to the triangle because his corner talked him through it.

contenders series says he is purple(i think ist was bisping who said it.).. His top game is not good, i think he is solid off his back and scrambling back on his feet, he aint shooting in Zahabi if he has any fight IQ. The Tony

 

[Stat_Collector]

You can watch it here. Fight starts around 2:04

https://video.tudou.com/v/XNDA2NDExNDA4NA==.html?spm=a2h0k.8191414.0.0&from=s1.8-1-1.2



I'm surprised he regards himself as a striker, given his record. But that move from being trapped in an omoplata to getting Martinez into a triangle was sweet. Personally, I think Zahabi is the value side.

I thought he displayed ok tdd in the Gravely fight, it had some holes and he did get taken down a lot but he stuffed a few and got some wrestling reversals on Gravely, and that was 2018. Three years later he should be able to stuff Zahibi's takedowns. If his team is smart they should have him training mostly defensive grappling for his training camp.
'
As for striking, Drako got a least 18 boxing matches(amatuer and pro) And 18 mma(amatuer and pro)
As long as he keeps it on the feet his experience on the feet with 36 fights should get him the W.

Zahibi has grappling tournaments experience, but those wont count unless he can get him down, the fight will always start in the feet.

 

[longway]

I thought he displayed ok tdd in the Gravely fight, it had some holes and he did get taken down a lot but he stuffed a few and got some wrestling reversals on Gravely, and that was 2018. Three years later he should be able to stuff Zahibi's takedowns. If his team is smart they should have him training mostly defensive grappling for his training camp.
'
As for striking, Drako got a least 18 boxing matches(amatuer and pro) And 18 mma(amatuer and pro)
As long as he keeps it on the feet his experience on the feet with 36 fights should get him the W.

Zahibi has grappling tournaments experience, but those wont count unless he can get him down, the fight will always start in the feet.

I just think Zahabi is being faded a little too much. I cant see him being +170. I think he lacks the athleticism to make a mark in the UFC, but he is very well trained, and there will be few holes to exploit on a technical level. And he is bound to have a good game plan for this match-up. He has had time off, so could be better than before. I can imagine him mixing-in Tds and edging 2 rounds to win the fight.

 

[longway]

I mean he didn't really get a chance, pretty much first combo he threw dropped him, and it was all over after that. Olenik could face the same fate, he is so hittable and slow. He would need to rush into the clinch asap

This is the fight that gave me confidence that Daukaus will be able to fend off TDs long enough to put Oleniks lights out.



Fight starts about 1:25

He did lose, but Teed was lucky to get out of R1, and he only got the TD in R2 when Daukaus had gassed.

 

[WolfgangKennelz]

I taped this fight in detail twice now, once for Drakos Contender debut and then for this fight originally. Could not get a read on him for contender as legit every single opponent on the regionals runs in, takes him down with ease and then gets subbed. Even his one loss to Graverly, he kept getting wrestled until he got GNPed in the championship rounds. So im thinking this guy is clearly a jits player, yet everyone keeps forcing the takedown? Don't even know if he can throw a punch. Then on the contender he throws a nice combination, which forces his opponent who was meant to be a thai fighter, to shoot and get triangled.

Upon second taping for this fight, I found out Drako has a boxing background, probably why everyone shoots on him. Zahabi has awesome Jits defence and framing, he is always super composed when in danger. Even against Ramos, from memory I think he was getting onto his back and he striped him off so clean it was like a jits repellant lol. He is obviously very technical. My only problem with Zahabi is his output, and not knowing exactly how good Drakos standup is. Also if Zahabi wrestles, its a clear path as Drako has awful TDD. Lots of unknowns and originally I was ok passing at those odds, but that wide line keeps staring at me.

I don't want to steer you wrong as I'm confused by this match-up myself. But don't put too much stock into his boxing background. I watched a couple of his boxing matches. Although they were a few years ago, I was very unimpressed. Fought bums basically.. maybe he's a better mma striker as he has too thick of a frame and muscle for straight boxing. You can't get away with being a little thicker in boxing really. Mma is more forgiving. More variables.
It's kind of like saying Markwhan Amirkhani has a background in boxing... take it for what it is but I'm not sold on him as a striker really at all. However he is young and could have improved. On flip side, zahabi is getting old and could have regressed especially after long layoff. Very tough fight, more comfortable with the plus money. Still a pass for me

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Was hoping Blaydes ITD would be +money, but right now it's -200 minimum across my books.

 

[JkMMA]

Was hoping Blaydes ITD would be +money, but right now it's -200 minimum across my books.

Bitchasss bovada doesn’t even have the prop bets up yet. Curtis is def winning the fight. U should just parlay him with someone.

 

[JkMMA]

Arlovski for the win!! Let’s go putbull!

 

[Stat_Collector]

I just think Zahabi is being faded a little too much. I cant see him being +170. I think he lacks the athleticism to make a mark in the UFC, but he is very well trained, and there will be few holes to exploit on a technical level. And he is bound to have a good game plan for this match-up. He has had time off, so could be better than before. I can imagine him mixing-in Tds and edging 2 rounds to win the fight.

His average ground ctrl time is 1:90 sec total in three fights. Taken down 5 times in 3 fights, but 3/5 by Ramos another bjj guy. I just think his top game is too weak. Tony Gravly beat Drako on the ground but with struggle to keep him down. I think Drako’s tdd and getups are enough for zahibi who could not submit a guy like Morales in his last fight who had poorer sub defense than Drako.

 

[longway]

His average ground ctrl time is 1:90 sec total in three fights. Taken down 5 times in 3 fights, but 3/5 by Ramos another bjj guy. I just think his top game is too weak. Tony Gravly beat Drako on the ground but with struggle to keep him down. I think Drako’s tdd and getups are enough for zahibi who could not submit a guy like Morales in his last fight who had poorer sub defense than Drako.

I got to look back at the Morales fight, but the TDs by Ramos were insignificant, as he got up very quickly after each. He was on the way to winning the Ramos fight when he got caught by a spinning back fist, thats a low % outcome.

I could be wrong, Zahabi is my smallest play, but I think he is the right side at +170.

 

[Sono07]

contenders series says he is purple(i think ist was bisping who said it.).. His top game is not good, i think he is solid off his back and scrambling back on his feet, he aint shooting in Zahabi if he has any fight IQ. The Tony

I believe he said Martinez was the purple belt. In the Tony Gravely fight I think the commentary meantions a wrestling background in Iowa.

I taped this fight in detail twice now, once for Drakos Contender debut and then for this fight originally. Could not get a read on him for contender as legit every single opponent on the regionals runs in, takes him down with ease and then gets subbed. Even his one loss to Graverly, he kept getting wrestled until he got GNPed in the championship rounds. So im thinking this guy is clearly a jits player, yet everyone keeps forcing the takedown? Don't even know if he can throw a punch. Then on the contender he throws a nice combination, which forces his opponent who was meant to be a thai fighter, to shoot and get triangled.

Upon second taping for this fight, I found out Drako has a boxing background, probably why everyone shoots on him. Zahabi has awesome Jits defence and framing, he is always super composed when in danger. Even against Ramos, from memory I think he was getting onto his back and he striped him off so clean it was like a jits repellant lol. He is obviously very technical. My only problem with Zahabi is his output, and not knowing exactly how good Drakos standup is. Also if Zahabi wrestles, its a clear path as Drako has awful TDD. Lots of unknowns and originally I was ok passing at those odds, but that wide line keeps staring at me.

I think he is a former wrestler who started training boxing/bjj. At least in his contender series fight Drako went to the ground when he caught a kick. He could use a better camp from what I can tell but I've seen worse striking. He showed some decent scrambles against Graverly too.


Zahabi might be worth a stab but I'm concerned he could look more gun shy than last time. Definitely want to see him weigh in. He just seems like a journeyman at this point, I can't find evidence he has been training seriously for this fight. The fight being canceled in December due to Zahabi having covid is another red flag for me. Just got over that shit myself and I still don't have my sense of smell back.

He could show up and completely dominate the grappling or get a few TD's stuffed and get out worked by a more motivated fighter. Maybe I'm just wary of unproven BJJ specialist after Black belt hunter shit the bed Saturday.

 

[Sono07]

I got to look back at the Morales fight, but the TDs by Ramos were insignificant, as he got up very quickly after each. He was on the way to winning the Ramos fight when he got caught by a spinning back fist, thats a low % outcome.

I could be wrong, Zahabi is my smallest play, but I think he is the right side at +170.

Low percentage attack maybe but he got caught twice back to back by the same spinning elbow. His strike defense and movement are or at least were bad. Against Ramos he walked forward with chin up and no respect for Ramos striking and paid for it. Against Morales he admitted to be wary of his power and unable to get going.

Not sure which version we see here or if Drako can even make him pay for his defensive holes though. Prebet value is probably on Zahabi but if he can't pressure Rodriguez early I may live bet Drako depending on the odds.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Daukaus rd 1 ko +200
Under 1.5 -150


Aspinall td 1 ko +250

I think both of these guys hand speed is going to be a major problem for their 40 something opponents

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Bitchasss bovada doesn’t even have the prop bets up yet. Curtis is def winning the fight. U should just parlay him with someone.

I don't parlay heavy favorites, that's a sure way to lose money over time.

 

[WolfgangKennelz]

What is everyone's thoughts on Erosa - Landwehr ?

Originally I was thinking Eros as I don't think Landwehr is all that great. But thinking how the fight will go, I think Landwehr has the matchup edge. It's gona either be a 3 round fight of night type war.. might favor Landwehr on volume and more damage , or some1 is getting knocked out... where I think I favor Landwehr durability. Can Erosa get it to ground possibly. Sub him possibly. Yes he can but I don't think chances are great for that. More than likely these guys go at it for 15 minutes until some1 gets KOd or they both get fight of night checks and I think the way I envision the fight happening... Landwehr gets his hand raised

I think some money should continue to come in on Juicy J... Landwehr at +115 range might be very tempting

 

[DonQ94]

What is everyone's thoughts on Erosa - Landwehr ?

Originally I was thinking Eros as I don't think Landwehr is all that great. But thinking how the fight will go, I think Landwehr has the matchup edge. It's gona either be a 3 round fight of night type war.. might favor Landwehr on volume and more damage , or some1 is getting knocked out... where I think I favor Landwehr durability. Can Erosa get it to ground possibly. Sub him possibly. Yes he can but I don't think chances are great for that. More than likely these guys go at it for 15 minutes until some1 gets KOd or they both get fight of night checks and I think the way I envision the fight happening... Landwehr gets his hand raised

I think some money should continue to come in on Juicy J... Landwehr at +115 range might be very tempting

Yeah I have the same read. Erosa tends to get into brawls with his hands low and his chin up, doesn't use his reach at all. I favor Landwehr in a fight like that because he has the better chin and more punching power.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I like Landwehr, Oleinik and Sabatini as dogs.

Oleinik I think is the more risky one just because the wheels can fall off at any time at his age, but I think he has a huge advantage on the ground and the striking style he employed in the Werdum fight might allow him to get inside to get it there.

 

[Sono07]

Spivak keeping some high level company. I guess Ngannou is getting ready for his title fight.

 

[Kyojiro Kagenuma]

The odds on this match are insane imo.

Lewis is at great value.