UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

is this one of those fights where AA is supposed to lose and then wins a fucking decision?

this is funny cause for some reason I thought you meant to type BB (as in black beast obv) then I realized you meant Arvloski but either works in that sentence
 
this is funny cause for some reason I thought you meant to type BB (as in black beast obv) then I realized you meant Arvloski but either works in that sentence

When has Lewis ever done this besides the Ngannou fight?
 
same. and its all that UFC level exp AA has + working with Paulinho for boxing (masvidal's long time boxing coach at ATT)

I don't think Tom has even fought a 3rd round. Majority of his fights are rd1 finishes. It actually looks like any time (2x) hes gone past the 1st round, hes lost lol. oooh might have to drop money on AA or fight over 2.5. AA by dec is +350 right now

Tom's defeats were a long time ago now and early in his career. One of them was a DQ and the other was against a more experienced Stuart Austin (who's decent in his own right)

He's also not overly muscle-bound and flows with his punches rather than wings bombs so I'm not overly concerned about him gassing personally.
 
Getting some good + money on the not go distance props this weekend. Matchups that may suggest decisions, but there is finishing potential. See the Wineland fight & Flash Gordon
 
Yeah, I am getting the picture of why O'Neil is being faded. I don't disagree with the assessment of her, to a point, as she has also beaten a fighter in ADW with a decent record, and supposedly heavy-handed. But everyone also notes that her wrestling and jits are good enough to get this fight on the ground. Her PTV is very clear, and Dobson has never stopped a TD, it's incredible how bad her TDD is. AFAICS, its Dobson KO or bust, and that window is likely limited to R1. If this were kickboxing I would bet Dobson at these odds, no problem, but MMA? I still can't see it.
I think I actually favour O'Neil in the stand up
 
I think I actually favour O'Neil in the stand up

I think that's crazy based on what's in tape. O'Neil is really bad striking, flat footed, stands stationary when she throws, upper body forward over her hips, and it's just left, right, left, right arm punches from that stance.

Not saying Dobson is a quality boxer but she's definitely more effective standing and will very likely be the more powerful striker.

O'Neil could have made big improvements, she's at a good gym, she's young, she has money, so she does have all the opportunity in the world to get better, but, if we're going only on what's in the tape then O'Neil isn't likely to win a pure striking fight in my opinion.

I definitely think she has her path with her grappling and wrestling and top game though.

The way the line has moved now I'd say O'Neil is the side currently
 
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At first glance I expected this card to be a gem for betting, but the more I've gone into tape I just keep finding disappointment after disappointment.

I think there's very much a young blood vs tricky veteran theme at work through out the card, and first instinct in most of those bouts is to take the younger, fresher up and comer

Aspinal, Daukaus, Chavez, Castaneda, Drako, O'Neil, Emmers all seem like the side but once I taped I found myself see opportunities for their opponents.

What islf Aspinal doesn't get the early KO and kind get in on Arlovski consistently and Arlovski is able to slow the fight down to a crawl and coast his way to a close split?

What if Daukaus goes for broke round one, gets tangled up and ends up on the mat with Oleinik on top of him, can he survive there? Will he gas?

Chavez has shown that he slows in round 3, he's also shown that he can be pushed to the cage and wore on. Gordan has a new team, a is doing his strength and conditioning with Phil Daru, Dustin Poieres S and C coach. What if he comes in great shape feeling refreshed and cab survive an early storm and grind Chavez out down the stretch?

There are question marks over almost all of these fights that make them had to play with any solid conviction, some of them I've taken some of them I've passed but I can't say I confident in any of them
 
^ I would not describe Dobson as a tricky veteran, or even Skelly. Skeely has bad gas tank and is a R1 sub or bust in this match imo.

And I actually lean Wineland over Castenada at these odds, but am holding out for +120. also lean Zanabi at these odds, but not particularly confident.
 
Anybody else like Klose? Pena is alright but doesn't seem to do anything terribly well and I think Drakkar has already fought a better version of him in Bobby Green.

Drakkar should be able to win the striking and grappling exchanges. He should be aggressive enough to shut down Pena's distance striking. I don't think Violent Bob has the power to punish Klose for his aggression and defensive lapses either.
 
^ I would not describe Dobson as a tricky veteran, or even Skelly. Skeely has bad gas tank and is a R1 sub or bust in this match imo.

And I actually lean Wineland over Castenada at these odds, but am holding out for +120. also lean Zanabi at these odds, but not particularly confident.

Not saying they are all tricky veteran's but up and comers against more established fighters. Can't see how Skelly is anything other than a tricky vet, the guy's 35, been around forever and is 17 - 3 with no real striking skill, he's definitely doing something to make fights closer than they should be.
 
Anybody else like Klose? Pena is alright but doesn't seem to do anything terribly well and I think Drakkar has already fought a better version of him in Bobby Green.

Drakkar should be able to win the striking and grappling exchanges. He should be aggressive enough to shut down Pena's distance striking. I don't think Violent Bob has the power to punish Klose for his aggression and defensive lapses either.

Why should Klose be able to win the grappling exchanges?
 
I think that's crazy based on what's in tape. O'Neil is really bad striking, flat footed, stands stationary when she throws, upper body forward over her hips, and it's just left, right, left, right arm punches from that stance.

Not saying Dobson is a quality boxer but she's definitely more effective standing and will very likely be the more powerful striker.

O'Neil could have made big improvements, she's at a good gym, she's young, she has money, so she does have all the opportunity in the world to get better, but, if we're going only on what's in the tape then O'Neil isn't likely to win a pure striking fight in my opinion.

I definitely think she has her path with her grappling and wrestling and top game though.

The way the line has moved now I'd say O'Neil is the side currently


I think Oneil looked better here then anything I've seen from Dobson, fast 1-2 ending her combinations with kicks, those straight shots where fast and had power hurting McEven.
I would propably rate McEven on the level of Dobson.

You could also tell training at Tiger muy thai improved her stand up landing several elbow combinations and high kicks.

On the ground its a wash for O'Neil
 
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Not saying they are all tricky veteran's but up and comers against more established fighters. Can't see how Skelly is anything other than a tricky vet, the guy's 35, been around forever and is 17 - 3 with no real striking skill, he's definitely doing something to make fights closer than they should be.


Skelly is 17-3 against better opposition while Emerson is 17-5 against regional fighters.

Its a deceiving record, should be 18-4. He hardly ever fights, his last legit win was against Gruetzmacher, back in 2017. Griffin only lost bc he has retard level fight iq. He lost resoundingly to Jason Knight who is not UFC calibre. Emmers is a good all round fighter with solid wrestling, decent striking, good fight iq and a superior gas tank. He was unlucky to be on the wrong side of a close decision against Chikadze, who is looking fantastic these days. I dont think Skelly's opponents in ufc are that much better than whoever Emmers has faced. Skelly has a narrow ptv afaics.
 
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I think Oneil looked better here then anything I've seen from Dobson, fast 1-2 ending her combinations with kicks, those straight shots where fast and had power hurting McEven.
I would propably rate McEven on the level of Dobson.

You could also tell training at Tiger muy thai improved her stand up landing several elbow combinations and high kicks.

On the ground its a wash for O'Neil


Why do you think ground is a wash? I dont think she has ever stopped a td, attempted a sub, or a succesful sweep. You cant call her reversal over agapoya a sweep, it was more that agapoya just collapsed from exhaustion from beating dobson up.
 
Why do you think ground is a wash? I dont think she has ever stopped a td, attempted a sub, or a succesful sweep. You cant call her reversal over agapoya a sweep, it was more that agapoya just collapsed from exhaustion from beating dobson up.
I ment O'Neil should dominate on the ground.

No habla ingles
 
Skelly is 17-3 against better opposition while Emerson is 17-5 against regional fighters.
Think you have it the other way around. Emmers has fought fighters like Erosa, Hernandez, Moises, Cuiccinello and Sandhagen outside of the UFC. Mean while some of Skellys wins in the UFC are Blanco, Gruetzemacher, Alers, Soriano and Griffin. His regional oponents are trash.
That 17-3 is very deceiving.
 
Think you have it the other way around. Emmers has fought fighters like Erosa, Hernandez, Moises, Cuiccinello and Sandhagen outside of the UFC. Mean while some of Skellys wins in the UFC are Blanco, Gruetzemacher, Alers, Soriano and Griffin. His regional oponents are trash.
That 17-3 is very deceiving.
Winning against sandhagen is impressive.
I guess its deceiving for sure.
 
I remember Skelly being pretty decent. Is there anything we can go by to suggest he's been improving since having not fought in a while?

Also, I lean Arlovsky to take an ugly decision over Aspinall. AA is old, but unless you're Ngannou fast, he's going to be in most of these fights until the end.

I'm surprised no one's brought up Kunitskaya as a potential play. If she can stay uptight, doesn't she have a chance here? Not like Viera has mastered not blocking punches with her face yet.
 
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