UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till

Sono07 said:
I have to go back and tape Modestas again. Still after that last performance from Rountree its hard to say he has that fight for your money quality. Khalil's striking is impressive but from what I've seen he is more of the hammer and not the nail type that doesn't handle pressure well.
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Hard to see this one going to the cards with how Modestas fights, but FDNGTD is probably accurately priced around -250.

I haven't looked that closely, but man if you guys are finding real value on this card then good on you. I'm seeing a shit ton of lines that look **about** right.
 
mkess101 said:
Hard to see this one going to the cards with how Modestas fights, but FDNGTD is probably accurately priced around -250.

I haven't looked that closely, but man if you guys are finding real value on this card then good on you. I'm seeing a shit ton of lines that look **about** right.
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it might because Modestas is always on his bike, moving around the outside. Maybe when he blitzes in with his 1-2 Khalil can time him. He is mostly a counter striker and he couldn't land anything clean on a chinny Prachnio, probably because Prachnio was mostly kicking as hard as he could. Khalil looked better on the scale than last time, depending how my night goes and if the odds keep improving, might take a stab at Khalil
 
Bubzeh said:
Molly wins or not? What we thinking?
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fight has split decision written all over it..I think Molly has more volume which will look good but Kim is more powerful and I think she'll be able to get a few good power shots in
 
mkess101 said:
Hard to see this one going to the cards with how Modestas fights, but FDNGTD is probably accurately priced around -250.

I haven't looked that closely, but man if you guys are finding real value on this card then good on you. I'm seeing a shit ton of lines that look **about** right.
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Yeah I'm late taping this one. Probably more a fade on Khalil than anything. I can't get his last fight or that Ion fight out of my head though. Great striker but he does seem like the type to wilt under pressure.
 
Initially said:
When he got heel hooked in round 2, he was gassed as fuck.

That was 6 years ago, though. But he's a high output fighter, and as you said has only been out of the first round 3 times in his career, and has never been to a third round.

Spivac is being disrespected because of the hype of Aspinall, and because he couldn't finish Oleneik, someone he had to be super cautious with on the ground.

Like I said before, if he starches Spivac in round 1, I will not be shocked.

But Spivac rd3 @ +3300 is pretty value, and if it makes it out of the first round, I'll be looking to live bet Spivac.

Money is coming in on Brunson -- I expected Till to be -200ish after weigh-ins, but Brunson is as tall as him, and bigger.

There are a lot of live dogs on this card, Luigi, Khalil, Spivac, and Brunson all have favorable lines right now.

Even Jack Shore ITD is @ +115 on BetMGM.
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I dont see him gassing there, he was unloading on him with ground and pound and then got caught with a heel hook, to me it looked like he was just terrible at grappling,since then he got a bjj black belt, and ive seen improvement to his takedown defense. Im still in the middle of capping this fight so i havent locked in my pick, but i dont see the stamina as a major issue, the bigger issue will be does spivak get him to the ground and ground ctrl his way to victory.
 
Made a shitload of money on counterstrike the last few weeks so I am throwing down some money on no tape, shit fighters just for the fuck of it today with my newborn baby girl in my arms!
Hearts swollen as fuck right now
 
TrueAscension said:
Made a shitload of money on counterstrike the last few weeks so I am throwing down some money on no tape, shit fighters just for the fuck of it today with my newborn baby girl in my arms!
Hearts swollen as fuck right now
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Word!

Congratulations brother!
 
Till down to -160 or better on a lot of sites I use, interesting.
 
Prelims

Dalcha vs Marc

Dalcha is a technically poor striker with incredible athleticism. His feet are concrete with no rhythm, his intentions are overtly telegraphed and when he does throw it’s a massive explosion but it isn’t clean at all. There isn’t any degree of believable feinting and his only method of entering is a bursting flurry. He lacks variety or any real attempts to angle and to cap it off he leaves himself wide open for counters regularly. His striking is just up and down terrible beyond his dynamite hands. His grappling is decent, if not underwhelming for his Judo credentials, but I very much doubt he’ll be able to use it beyond maybe the first round, if at all in this matchup.

I say that because Marc is above average for a fighter at maintaining his desired range. He’s got light feet for his size, has a basic rhythm to his movement and is decently agile. His striking is what you want to see from a developing striker technically. Defensively aware, mostly sub maximal strikes thrown straight and a natural movement. He can lunge occasionally and his defense breaks down when he’s facing heavy volume.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Dalcha win the first with a powerful takedown or a big shot but I’d be absolutely stunned to see him win the 3rd. His cardio is atrocious and Marc is a cardio machine at this weight. The second round could be a decider and with Dalcha’s low volume and where his cardio will likely be, I’d be surprised to see him take it. Add in the durability, the lack of low kicks from Dalcha to take away the mobility of Marc and I think this becomes a very uphill battle for the power striker. The pick is Marc.

Juicy J vs Air Jourdain

I used to wonder why it was that Juicy got KO’d so viciously, so often, now I know. His perpetual crouch dropping his chin level and the way he stiffens and occasionally leans in when shots come in creates the perfect storm to leave him absolutely starched. This isn’t a good problem to have fighting Jourdain.

Despite his nickname, Jourdain is a very patient fighter, almost too patient. A slow starter that builds reads and implements them late. Another contradiction to his name, he really likes to work inside. Getting their with shifting shots or quick bursts and then implementing a solid clinch game. Juicy might be too tall and powerful in his own right for the usual dirty boxing cliches that Jourdain likes but they will be in clinch striking range quite a bit, especially as the fight goes late and entrances become easier.

Juicy could win this on volume, just outworking Jourdain in the first 2. That wouldn’t be a surprising fight, but Julian’s own live or die by the sword mentality and very iffy chin/defensive liabilities makes it unlikely. I think this line could be a little wide but I have to expect Jourdain to catch him in the pocket at some point with a nasty uppercut or hook. Pick is Jourdain.

Shore vs Shaolin

Brutal matchmaking for someone coming off contender. I expect Liudvik to really became a decent UFC fighter. He’s a dogged grappler with a grinder mentality and that tends to do well. He’s over a barrel here though against Shore who has yet to be taken down once in the UFC. I wouldn’t go in on a finish, though there’s potential. Instead take the juice boost and parlay this with something else.

Molly vs Kim

I came into this expecting to go for Kim, partially due to her massive reach advantage and ability to snipe and because I always underate Molly before re-watching her tape. Kim has a path in this fight but it’s a tricky one. She’s a counter puncher to a T and is painfully bad at initiating. When she tries to create it’s not set up, her head stays on-line and she doesn’t enter cleanly. She’s a fantastic counter striker though and really thrives when she can keep range and drive straight shots down the pipe. That’s the key part, she needs to see the shots and have that range. Her low hands, slow head and poor pocket awareness make for very ugly pocket exchanges.

This is where I think Molly has a decided advantage. While she’s at a colossal 10 inch reach disadvantage, she’s very adept at entering the pocket with her lateral footwork and small leaps. She slips straight shots well and has very tight looping shots, especially her lead hook which I think will catch Kim numerous times when she fails to pivot around fast enough catch the angle Molly creates.

The other two issues are volume and grappling. Kim, again, is a poor creator and needs either a finish or a lot of counter opportunities to take rounds. Inversely Molly has a decent workrate through all three rounds and is adept at making matches into messy affairs with her clinch work and pocket crashing. Molly is the only person in this fight who’ll attempt grappling. Whether or not she’ll succeed, I can’t say but she’ll be putting it out there and with a decent single leg game bolstered by better footwork, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if she secured a takedown or two. I have to lean Molly here in what could be a close affair early but I believe will widen as the fight goes on.
 
Faded Pimblett in what is going to be probably my only bet for tonight.

Good luck bros.
 
Main Card


Paddy vs Luigi

There’s about 2 minutes of tape for the last two years. Paddie’s last full fight was almost exactly 3 years ago and I don’t know how anyone can be confident capping a fight with such a small amount of recent footage. Pass.

Modestas vs Khalil

Two patient, defensively porous, technical kickboxers? Big pass. Khalil has a power and chin edge but Modestas has a better gas tank. If Khalil doesn’t get that early KO, I think we’re looking at a very tight striking affair.

Aspinall vs Spivak

What a mismatch. The striking difference here is stark and Spivak absolutely needs to find a way to get this to the ground. At the base level we already have a very big athletic discrepancy where Aspinall holds more speed, coordination and rhythm by echelons. Then you add in that he’s a phenomenal, layered striker who can control range and collapse distance effortlessly. He feints and strikes at all distances very naturally. Inversely Spivak lunges, flails and leaves his chin out there to be countered.

No whether or not Spivak can get him down is unknown, there isn’t a lot of tape on Aspinall defending takedowns but looking at what we do have, I think it’ll be an uphill fight for Spivak. Range is the greatest TDD and Spivak is gonna have a very hard time getting into the position he needs for a clean takedown. This is magnified by how overtly predictable the gameplan needs to be since he won’t be able to threaten striking to draw Aspinall up. The only thing I really don’t like is Aspinall’s habit of trying to create range with a leaning back pedal when facing bursting opponents. That’s a quick way to get taken down if someone’s chasing a double.

I personally just don’t see it happening for Spivak here though. Between his terrible striking, predictable gameplan and colossal athletic disadvantage it’s a lot to expect him to get a finish or win multiple rounds. Regardless of the outcome, we should have a better understanding of Tom’s TDD after this one.

Morono vs Zawada

I just hate watching Morono strike. Flailing, off balance, no angle haymakers and uncoordinated lunges. It’s like watching someone fight in a Walmart parking lot. His defense is no better trying to poorly hand parry, bite down on his mouth piece and throw his head back. That said he’s tough as nails, carries great volume and fights for your money. His takedowns aren’t that much better and his entire game really relies on his ability to just out grit you in a banger.

Zawada inversely is very clean. He throws fantastic straight shots, has a tight layered striking defense and strings his punches and kicks together fluidly. His low kick compliments the speed and precision of his jabs and straights allowing him to capitalize on the technical gap he’s likely to see with opponents. He’s clearly not from a grappling background but makes up for it with good defensive fundamentals. He doesn’t lie flat easily and scrambles up actively.

This could end up being a Morono special where he’s clearly outclassed technically but somehow make it gritty enough to steal rounds or he could just tangle Zawada up on the ground in ways he doesn’t expect and maybe even snatch a sub. I think more likely though, Zawada dials him up on the feet and stuffs the occasional lunging takedown. If it goes late I expect Zawada to have a book of reads and Morono’s leg to be multicolored. Zawada is the pick.

Till vs Brunson

NCAA Brunson is tough tough fight. He’s got dynamite power, good activity and can finish takedowns from multiple angles in multiple positions. It’s a lot for a fighter to sit on defensively. Preparing for the shot takes away mobility and makes preparing for his rush difficult. Inversely if he gets you in the clinch he can hit doubles, singles and bodylocks with fantastic angles. Exiting the clinch is when he’s at his most dangerous though. He’s reeled in his need to charge chin first into bangers and really restricted his big shots to when he’s coming off clinch range, where he can most leverage his athleticism. His defense at range is rough, he flails at big strikes, hangs his chin out and eats a lot. When pressed he either hits a reactive takedown or gets cracked with no craft in between.

Till’s pure counter striker. Stands very upright, eyes wide open and unblinkingly reads what his opponent’s giving him. He’s got a variety of clean, straight shots, an incredibly well timed and natural uppercut + a very good vocabulary of non-boxing strikes with kicks and elbows. The only major issue with his striking is his absolute lack of volume. It’s a shame because he isn’t bad at pressing the action in his own right, he just tends to wait for the counter to open up before striking. This is double edged beyond volume, with his low hands and uninspired head movement leading to either a picture perfect read and counter or getting cracked.

I think Till’s got a hard road ahead here. He’s at a big power/grappling/activity disadvantage here. He’s really going to be relying on big moments here, which is never optimal, especially when you don’t have real stopping power in your weight class. His biggest problems here are gonna be his upright stance opening up a lot of grappling opportunities along with his low hands. These low hands would typically help TDD, letting him dig underhooks/overhooks easier but that kind of clinch isn’t what you’re gonna want against a technician like Brunson who’ll simply chain and drag Till to the ground. I think TIll’s also in danger of giving up a massive strike and just getting his head blown off. His best chance is if his TDD is shockingly good and he wears Brunson out early. If that does happen Brunson’ll be a sitting duck to a much better striker, even then though, Till’s volume could make such a situation close. More likely I think Brunson puts on a grappling clinic and potentially lands something massive. Brunson is the play.
 
sonhow said:
One thing to consider about Paddy is that these naturally a bit more charismatic dudes tend to do quite well in their ufc debuts.
Might have something to do with the ability to handle the jitters better while being more pumped up or just well suited matchmaking.
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Good post,there is something too it definitely.
 
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