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Good take. Thanks for the info.
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt
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Good take. Thanks for the info.
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Yeah I agree he did seem to settle and find a pace to keep himself in the fight but Krause also looked really bad, like just didn't really do much of anything.
It's going to be close, it has a good chance of coming down to gas tank and I think McGee has more gas and I got him at slight dog odds so it's the side for me.
Wouldn't be at all surpised if Silva wins
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Initial thoughts I like Hadžović, Hermansson, Claudio Silva and maybe Cody.
Hadzovic - Yancy just eats too many strikes for me. I think he's just been in too many wars and Damir probably has the power to put him away. Yancy has some alright chokes but I imagine Damir will be able to take him down and win rounds via wrestling if he needs to, while Yancy will look to stand and bang where he may have success but I think likely ends up coming off worse from it.
Hermansson - Edmen is young enough and had enough time off from the Brunson fight that he may come out making leaps and bounds of improvement, be able to avoid the takedown and look fantastic on the feet, but Hermansson is a solid grappler with a deceptively good clinch game to get it down and a pretty good top game that he can probably keep Edmen down if he does get him there. I still think Edmen will go on to have a great career but Brunson set the blueprint and Hermansson can probably follow it here - happy to bet on the job being replicated given Hermanssons strengths and the lack of defensive grappling Edmen showed last fight - like I said he could have shored up the holes in his game but I'd need to see that be demonstrated rather than just assuming he's now got those skills.
Silva - more of a fade of Court who looked pretty terrible last fight. Obviously styles make fights though and Claudio doesn't have much in the way of striking and for all his decline Court is still tough to take down. If Court becomes a massive underdog I may switch and bet him by decision because it's probably going to be a rubbish 29-28 type fight with slow striking and grinding against the cage unless Claudio can land a takedown away from the fence early.
Cody - I thought he looked good against (albeit past his prime) Assuncao. Expecting a stand up brawl which is a bit of a worry given Font has shown some power but I think Cody might be a bit faster and his chin issues potentially overblown. The obvious fear is he gets in a wild brawl and gets cracked but I think he's probably got the better boxing just about and a bit of a speed advantage.
Hadzovic - Yancy just eats too many strikes for me. I think he's just been in too many wars and Damir probably has the power to put him away. Yancy has some alright chokes but I imagine Damir will be able to take him down and win rounds via wrestling if he needs to, while Yancy will look to stand and bang where he may have success but I think likely ends up coming off worse from it.
Hermansson - Edmen is young enough and had enough time off from the Brunson fight that he may come out making leaps and bounds of improvement, be able to avoid the takedown and look fantastic on the feet, but Hermansson is a solid grappler with a deceptively good clinch game to get it down and a pretty good top game that he can probably keep Edmen down if he does get him there. I still think Edmen will go on to have a great career but Brunson set the blueprint and Hermansson can probably follow it here - happy to bet on the job being replicated given Hermanssons strengths and the lack of defensive grappling Edmen showed last fight - like I said he could have shored up the holes in his game but I'd need to see that be demonstrated rather than just assuming he's now got those skills.
Silva - more of a fade of Court who looked pretty terrible last fight. Obviously styles make fights though and Claudio doesn't have much in the way of striking and for all his decline Court is still tough to take down. If Court becomes a massive underdog I may switch and bet him by decision because it's probably going to be a rubbish 29-28 type fight with slow striking and grinding against the cage unless Claudio can land a takedown away from the fence early.
Cody - I thought he looked good against (albeit past his prime) Assuncao. Expecting a stand up brawl which is a bit of a worry given Font has shown some power but I think Cody might be a bit faster and his chin issues potentially overblown. The obvious fear is he gets in a wild brawl and gets cracked but I think he's probably got the better boxing just about and a bit of a speed advantage.
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Edmen vs Hermanson
Edmen is dangerous in the 1st round but fades after that. Hermanson seemed to get better as the fight went on in his last fight against Vetorri. I'm gonna sprinkle something on a 3rd round finish for Hermanson.
Esparza vs Yan
At first I was thinking Yan for sure but looking at her record, she's 6-0 in the UFC but has never faced a wrestler. Gaudela was able to take her down and control her in the first round of their fight but then for some reason seemed to abandon trying to take her down in the 2nd and 3rd, Gaudela was able to pin her on the fence in the 3rd for a bit though. From what I remember of Esparza she's always pursuing the TD, Esparza might be live, probably just gonna not bet this fight.
Vandera VS Tafa
Vandera did not look good against Spivak in his last fight. Maybe he has good striking or something? because he doesn't look like he has any grappling. I'll take Tafa.
Garbrant vs Font
Best fight odds has the under set at 3.5 rounds at -170, seems like a good price I see this one ending early.
Edmen is dangerous in the 1st round but fades after that. Hermanson seemed to get better as the fight went on in his last fight against Vetorri. I'm gonna sprinkle something on a 3rd round finish for Hermanson.
Esparza vs Yan
At first I was thinking Yan for sure but looking at her record, she's 6-0 in the UFC but has never faced a wrestler. Gaudela was able to take her down and control her in the first round of their fight but then for some reason seemed to abandon trying to take her down in the 2nd and 3rd, Gaudela was able to pin her on the fence in the 3rd for a bit though. From what I remember of Esparza she's always pursuing the TD, Esparza might be live, probably just gonna not bet this fight.
Vandera VS Tafa
Vandera did not look good against Spivak in his last fight. Maybe he has good striking or something? because he doesn't look like he has any grappling. I'll take Tafa.
Garbrant vs Font
Best fight odds has the under set at 3.5 rounds at -170, seems like a good price I see this one ending early.
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I'd be careful with Tafa he is a low level heavyweight , ground game suspect, and Jared is a bjj black belt.I like the other picks.
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Vandera is black belt? Wow he looked bad on the ground in his last fight.
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To be fair it was Spivak. It's on his ufc athlete page(maybe its fake i dunno?) He displayed some grappling on the DWCS , all of his tko wins are ground and pound and he has a ankle lock win and a decent guillotine choke. No high rated sub wins, but still we haven't seen Tafa get tested on the ground. This is a pass for me, I think Jared can get knocked out or Tafa can get submitted or wrestled to the ground and exhausted, Jared has a combine pro amateur record of 15-9 , making him a 21 fight veteran , more than 4x the mma exp than Tafa. Its not a sure pick on either side, but i see some value on Jared.
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Bruno Silva is free monies and gonna play his ITD moderately too.
Good bd unfortunately I just finished tape for this one and Esparzas already down to +110 I actually still think there's value there hit it for 1u
People still betting ismagulov at -650? Dont get me wrong hes nasty and should win but alves is dangerous especially in the 1st rd, seems like its smarter to live bet this one, to potentially get a better price as alves is live early imo
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***For those using Betanysports***
Make sure to check your graded bets!!! I had a parlay of Ferguson/Dariush o2.5 and Oliveira ML and was looking through my graded bets and they graded it as a loss. The live chat girl didn't seem to understand what o2.5 was, a couple times she said "You bet over 2 and a half, and it shows the score as Dariush 1 Ferguson 0 so the points were under." ***Slaps head***
Finally she took it to her "wagering manager" and it did get fixed and graded as a win. But with how many bets some guys make, if you aren't tracking super close it would be easy to miss.
And with their site "upgrade" (which isn't an upgrade but whatever) I think errors like this are gonna be way more common. Eyes open gents.
Make sure to check your graded bets!!! I had a parlay of Ferguson/Dariush o2.5 and Oliveira ML and was looking through my graded bets and they graded it as a loss. The live chat girl didn't seem to understand what o2.5 was, a couple times she said "You bet over 2 and a half, and it shows the score as Dariush 1 Ferguson 0 so the points were under." ***Slaps head***
Finally she took it to her "wagering manager" and it did get fixed and graded as a win. But with how many bets some guys make, if you aren't tracking super close it would be easy to miss.
And with their site "upgrade" (which isn't an upgrade but whatever) I think errors like this are gonna be way more common. Eyes open gents.
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Under is +100, Silva itd +105
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I live in vegas and mostly play at sports books. Oddly enough sometimes the lines fall behind and dont move as fast as the offshore stuff does. Hoping the lines go back to plus money by this weekend but may have to make a play before then.
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dead Joker is -140 now
that’s a gift bros
Edmen is young and has all time in world to round out his game but as long as his coach is still edmond tarverdyan I don’t expect those things to happen
honestly at -140 I don’t even need to go prop hunting but I do think he finishes him
that’s a gift bros
Edmen is young and has all time in world to round out his game but as long as his coach is still edmond tarverdyan I don’t expect those things to happen
honestly at -140 I don’t even need to go prop hunting but I do think he finishes him
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also is the bout order actually set, what did we do to deserve a carla esparza co main event?
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I think you guys are sleeping on Edmen here. If you don't rate him as one of the better prospects in the UFC right now, OK that's fair.
What if he comes out and spams takedowns, but it winds up like the Cannonier fight and he gets one, doesn't get the quick sub, and is then stuffed on very predictable shots for the rest of the first round?
If you think Edmen is purely going to gas, I'd suggest part of his tank being empty in the Brunson fight was because one of the top wrestlers/GnP guys in the division put the beat down on him for a good bit of time. I don't think he purely gassed from the grappling, though I haven't yet watched his only other 3 round fight yet. Hermansson may be one of the better (best?) submission guys in the division, but you've gotta get the guy down there first. I think it's pretty reasonable to expect Edmen — who despite the coach, seems like a motivated young fella — to have improved his defensive game a decent bit. His TDD wasn't terrible against Brunson, certainly not in the first round. Brunson tried, failed, and lost the round. Brunson is a bigger striking threat than Jack is.
I haven't yet gotten around to tracking down Edmen's first (and only other) 3 rounder, and definitely will before making a final play. But I think he's got significantly more prowess with his hands than Jack, and I think that is going to be a big factor.
Got lots more fights to watch before a final pick, but having seen most of Edmen's short career, and most of Jack's UFC career, that's where I'm at right now.
@DabanggData thanks for posting the Jourdain/Culibao fight. I forgot that's who he was. He gave Jourdain a hell of a scrap, and I think Jourdain is likely a top 15 tier fighter at least. This Chinese guy Culibao is fighting has some losses to bad fighters on his record. Most of the guys he's fought have pretty suspect records. Seems to lose when he fights anyone with a decent one. It's Sherdog Fighter tracking their skills, but just smells like -250 might be undervaluing a guy that could hang with Jourdain vs a guy who has losses to fighters with losing records
What if he comes out and spams takedowns, but it winds up like the Cannonier fight and he gets one, doesn't get the quick sub, and is then stuffed on very predictable shots for the rest of the first round?
If you think Edmen is purely going to gas, I'd suggest part of his tank being empty in the Brunson fight was because one of the top wrestlers/GnP guys in the division put the beat down on him for a good bit of time. I don't think he purely gassed from the grappling, though I haven't yet watched his only other 3 round fight yet. Hermansson may be one of the better (best?) submission guys in the division, but you've gotta get the guy down there first. I think it's pretty reasonable to expect Edmen — who despite the coach, seems like a motivated young fella — to have improved his defensive game a decent bit. His TDD wasn't terrible against Brunson, certainly not in the first round. Brunson tried, failed, and lost the round. Brunson is a bigger striking threat than Jack is.
I haven't yet gotten around to tracking down Edmen's first (and only other) 3 rounder, and definitely will before making a final play. But I think he's got significantly more prowess with his hands than Jack, and I think that is going to be a big factor.
Got lots more fights to watch before a final pick, but having seen most of Edmen's short career, and most of Jack's UFC career, that's where I'm at right now.
@DabanggData thanks for posting the Jourdain/Culibao fight. I forgot that's who he was. He gave Jourdain a hell of a scrap, and I think Jourdain is likely a top 15 tier fighter at least. This Chinese guy Culibao is fighting has some losses to bad fighters on his record. Most of the guys he's fought have pretty suspect records. Seems to lose when he fights anyone with a decent one. It's Sherdog Fighter tracking their skills, but just smells like -250 might be undervaluing a guy that could hang with Jourdain vs a guy who has losses to fighters with losing records
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Felicia Spencer has 2/2 wins by finish in the ufc and 4/6 before the ufc. Great at getting opponents to give up their back and getting the RNC.
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She's also a thicc natural 145'r whereas dumont has fought at 135 and been doing catchweights at 140 range I think. Also her 100% tdd rate is BS. She's only defended 3 takedowns in ufc, 1 to megan who she got ko'd from in first round, and 2 from dog shit wmma alumini ashlee evans smith. Spencer stats are also misleading because she couldn't takedown cyborg or nunes, but the lesser competition she was able to takedown and control the girls then subsequently sub them which is around somewhere dumont should be categorized as.
