I watched a 21 minute interview of his that Piglord posted earlier in this thread. I usually don't gain confidence from interviews, but this one in particular I did.
He knows the threat of Mitchell's ground game, and he's not going to be careless fighting him. He trains with elite grapplers/wrestlers, has a solid ground game, and has so much more experience than Bryce. He even went as far as to say that he could sub Bryce, which I don't doubt, considering Bryce was subbed 2 years ago by someone with grappling worse than Fili's.
There's a lot of recency bias going on with Bryce. He's getting praised for his win over Rosa(and quite frankly I think that's the only reason he's the favorite), who is a legit black belt, but if you rewatch the fight, Rosa fought like a fucking IDIOT.
All of Bryce's takedowns came off of spinning back kicks, or just kicks that he'd throw at 100% and Bryce would catch them and take him down within the first 15 seconds of the round.
Fili wont load up on shots like Rosa did. He has the superior cardio, superior striking, and a ground game to match Bryce's. Is he has dominant on top as Bryce? No. But can he handle himself off of his back and get back to his feet? More than likely.
I think Fili just pieces him up on the feet, wears Bryce out, and either wins a rather dominant decision or gets a finish later on when Bryce is tired. I mean look at Bryce's resume, it's not impressive. Brad Katona submitted him 2 years ago. Has he improved a lot in 2 years? No doubt.
Does he deserve to be a -140 favorite over a veteran like Fili? Fuck no.
