UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Dos Anjos

So, betting the Spider Monkey again. I thought she was value all the way against Souza and deserved the nod.

Granger from what I can see maybe has a slight boxing edge but I haven't seen everything from her that says she can win wrestling or grappling exchanges and Yoder has continued to improve in these areas. Typical wmma bout where one side being a decent size favourite makes no sense, 50/50 fight at worst but Yoder with clearer path to victory.
 
I thought Felder looked a little rough on the scales and a little shaky as he flexd. RDA looked great.

Went into tape wanting to bet Felder but I think I am falling in the side of RDA. The cut was a concern but he's made the weight and didn't look drained.

Felder I feel isn't and hasn't ever been a true threat to the top 5. He's very tough, very durable and will not quit, but he isn't very complex as a fighter. His striking is good but I feel he lacks the ability to go up a gear and really apply the pressure. He starts and stays at one set moderate pace for the whole fight.

He has some power but he's not flat lining people, he's dangerous on top when he finds himself there but it's a rare occasion he will look to actually take the fight to the mat.

RDA may not want to stand and go strike for strike with him but he doesn't have to. He has a decent wrestling game, sets a good pace and can maintain it for several rounds, he has a dangerous submission game to back it up also.

I feel RDA just has more layers to his game and has more options to take the fight into different areas.

With that, there is a possibility RDA is washed, he's older now, picking up lots of loses, dropping back to 155 could be a last effort and an attempt by an aging veteran to cling on for a few more fights.

At the same time Felder had spoke of retirement, and also has often said how he wants big fights only and doesn't need to get into the cage any more, he has other options. Also obviously he's here on short notice and may not be five round ready.

I have a feeling things are close early and once we get to round 3 onwards it becomes clear who is going to take over the rest of the fight.

I found it interesting that neither guy has really had a style match up like this in a long time. RDA has been fighting wrestler after wrestler for years and Felders last three have been tall long rangey awkward strikers.

I like RDA round 4,5 or decision at +110 but I'm undecided on making the bet
 
A lot of people asking if I'm on Strickland or Allen. I leaned Strickland pretape but actually leaning Allen post tape. The small cage and 195lb catchweight are big factors in favour of Allen. I wish we'd seen Allen fight someone that didn't engage in grappling, I'm not sure how good his offensive wrestling is, but I think he's dogged enough to force the issue and Strickland doesn't have good TDD imo. Once on the mat I think that's the round for Allen. Strickland doesn't have much power to deter Allen from crashing the distance where he can work his clinch or hunt TDs.

Strickland has been talking about getting into wars, says he doesn't really care about the win. Also said his knee was still a mess going into the Marshman fight. Sean could turn out to be good LB if anything as I'm not sold on Allen's cardio, but Sean doesn't really make you work. Long ago but Alex Garcia who has poor cardio was still hitting easy TDs late in the 2nd and 3rd. Maybe I'm way off and this looks like Holloway/Ortega, my read on Allen isn't great and I haven't bet the fight, but may jump in if Allen goes back to + odds.
 
Sadistics said:
A lot of people asking if I'm on Strickland or Allen. I leaned Strickland pretape but actually leaning Allen post tape. The small cage and 195lb catchweight are big factors in favour of Allen. I wish we'd seen Allen fight someone that didn't engage in grappling, I'm not sure how good his offensive wrestling is, but I think he's dogged enough to force the issue and Strickland doesn't have good TDD imo. Once on the mat I think that's the round for Allen. Strickland doesn't have much power to deter Allen from crashing the distance where he can work his clinch or hunt TDs.

Strickland has been talking about getting into wars, says he doesn't really care about the win. Also said his knee was still a mess going into the Marshman fight. Sean could turn out to be good LB if anything as I'm not sold on Allen's cardio, but Sean doesn't really make you work. Long ago but Alex Garcia who has poor cardio was still hitting easy TDs late in the 2nd and 3rd. Maybe I'm way off and this looks like Holloway/Ortega, my read on Allen isn't great and I haven't bet the fight, but may jump in if Allen goes back to + odds.
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Down to -115 now. <{jackyeah}>
 
RDA jumped to -210 on betmgm, I can't play him @ those odds.

Probably just gonna play Yoder small, and wait for props to come out and play RDA ITD if it's +250 still.
 
Broe. said:
I think he might. This is actually what Strickland is good at. Brendan Allen also hasn't taken down any good wrestlers yet. I am curious to see what happens but would not be at all surprised if Strickland wins a comfortable 30-27 decision.
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Is Strickland really a good wrestler though? I think his TDD is...okay?

Gonna say it again: Grapplers that have a dogged determination to get the fight to the mat generally get it done unless they are facing someone with REALLY good TDD. I don't know if Strickland is that guy, I kinda lean he's not.

The parallels between Fili/Mitchell and this fight are pretty evident. I realize it's a different fight, could be a different result, etc. But man, the EXACT same things were being said about that fight. Yeah Mitchell's good on the ground, but what good grappler has he taken down? Fili is way better standing, he'll use his jab to keep Bryce at bay. All that stuff.

If you think Strickland's TDD is just way better than Fili's, okay. Or if you think Mitchell's TD's are just way better than Allen's. But I don't think either of those are true, and I think this fight plays out somewhat similarly to that one.
 
After watching more tape on Strickland/Allen, if I got Allen at his opening price I'd be content.

Right now it's a hard pass.
 
I'm evening second guessing betting on Yoder now. I should really stay the fuck away from this card.
 
Invictis said:
After watching more tape on Strickland/Allen, if I got Allen at his opening price I'd be content.

Right now it's a hard pass.
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Strickland the other day did a little trash talk towards Allen, hopefully that might motivate Allen to win. I am clearly going to bet on Allen ITD.
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
Strickland the other day did a little trash talk towards Allen, hopefully that might motivate Allen to win. I am clearly going to bet on Allen ITD.
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I lean Strickland, but I'd need a better price on him.

Either Allen bettors are going to look sharp, or Strickland is going to completely outclass him. There's no in between.
 
Invictis said:
I lean Strickland, but I'd need a better price on him.

Either Allen bettors are going to look sharp, or Strickland is going to completely outclass him. There's no in between.
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Allen's dumb aggression and Strickland's occasional lapses in fight IQ could easily produce a very dumb split dec, or a shitshow like the Daukaus fight.
 
Gugabe said:
Allen's dumb aggression and Strickland's occasional lapses in fight IQ could easily produce a very dumb split dec, or a shitshow like the Daukaus fight.
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True, just another reason to stay away.

Like Sadistics said, maybe LB Strickland after r1 if he's showing decent TDD.
 
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