UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Dos Anjos

Crimp_Keeper said:
there’s nothing to it. If you look at fighters missing weight (last 100 fighters) there isn’t any noticeable trends worth betting on. Look for other advantages because this ain’t one. Unless the fighter looks like death on the scale, pay no mind.

Also, I’m on Khaos now. Hassan missing weight makes me think he had a rough cut and will possibly have a weakened chin. Chaos bangs. I’ll take the under rounds and the Dog in this situation.
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“You can’t conclude anything from a fighter missing weight. I’m on Khaos bc Hassan missed weight.”
 
mkess101 said:
Is Strickland really a good wrestler though? I think his TDD is...okay?

Gonna say it again: Grapplers that have a dogged determination to get the fight to the mat generally get it done unless they are facing someone with REALLY good TDD. I don't know if Strickland is that guy, I kinda lean he's not.

The parallels between Fili/Mitchell and this fight are pretty evident. I realize it's a different fight, could be a different result, etc. But man, the EXACT same things were being said about that fight. Yeah Mitchell's good on the ground, but what good grappler has he taken down? Fili is way better standing, he'll use his jab to keep Bryce at bay. All that stuff.

If you think Strickland's TDD is just way better than Fili's, okay. Or if you think Mitchell's TD's are just way better than Allen's. But I don't think either of those are true, and I think this fight plays out somewhat similarly to that one.
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See admittedly this makes me nervous bc I’m on Strickland and I also bet Fili. But! Strickland will light his ass up standing, that’s basically a given imo. Allen’s TDs really aren’t that good. Hits them 37% of the time. Strickland’s TDD is 81%. Strickland also got out from under Usman twice. Against McGee he was constantly circling away denying McGee the chance to square up on his entries and landing shots easily while he was at it. Hate that this is at catch weight but I like Strickland, especially if you managed to get it at + odds. Anyway, GL
 
Card said:
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Out of all the fights why this one. At least I was still able to cash out of my bets for a tiny profit but sucks that I could have basically made £480 hedging had Anders just not got injured.
 
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Ryan Kelly said:
See admittedly this makes me nervous bc I’m on Strickland and I also bet Fili. But! Strickland will light his ass up standing, that’s basically a given imo. Allen’s TDs really aren’t that good. Hits them 37% of the time. Strickland’s TDD is 81%. Strickland also got out from under Usman twice. Against McGee he was constantly circling away denying McGee the chance to square up on his entries and landing shots easily while he was at it. Hate that this is at catch weight but I like Strickland, especially if you managed to get it at + odds. Anyway, GL
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It's the fight I'm most excited for without question.
 
Can anyone explain the love for Yoder here? I’m not seeing it.
 
Ryan Kelly said:
See admittedly this makes me nervous bc I’m on Strickland and I also bet Fili. But! Strickland will light his ass up standing, that’s basically a given imo. Allen’s TDs really aren’t that good. Hits them 37% of the time. Strickland’s TDD is 81%. Strickland also got out from under Usman twice. Against McGee he was constantly circling away denying McGee the chance to square up on his entries and landing shots easily while he was at it. Hate that this is at catch weight but I like Strickland, especially if you managed to get it at + odds. Anyway, GL
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Gonna add: I agree on Allen's TD's. Not amazing. Strickland has okay TDD, but the good wrestlers he's faced have put him on his back. I will say his get ups are solid, although Allen is very good at making guys pay by getting their backs when they try to get up. Also...Court McGee is so much slower on his entries than Allen, not sure it's a good measuring stick. Maybe not 10 years ago when he was winning TUF, but by 2017 when he fought Strickland he had become a big time plodder.

The thing about Allen is that he doesn't seem (so far anyway) to get frustrated if he gets stuffed on a TD or 2. So yeah maybe he doesn't hit his first 2 and eats some shots (seems to have a good chin) but then he times the third one right and the rest of the round is him winning via grappling.

It's such an intriguing fight between two guys that I really like watching. I won't be shocked at all by any result. Hell, even Allen landing some wild haymaker he throws off faking a shot wouldn't totally shock me. Nor would Strickland doing better in the grappling than people (myself included) think he will.
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
Can anyone explain the love for Yoder here? I’m not seeing it.
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I taped wanting to bet Granger. Granger is unlikely to find a sub where Dern and Souza couldn’t. She’s also very physically weak, especially in the clinch. And she’s seen R3 only once, so who knows how she does in deep water.
 
Ryan Kelly said:
I taped wanting to bet Granger. Granger is unlikely to find a sub where Dern and Souza couldn’t. She’s also very physically weak, especially in the clinch. And she’s seen R3 only once, so who knows how she does in deep water.
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If people don't know (hard to imagine people here wouldn't), Dern is literally on another planet when it comes to grappling as compared to Granger. I'm not saying Granger sub is impossible, but if Dern didn't (and yes that was lazy unmotivated Dern that kept missing weight), it's somewhat hard to see Granger doing it.

The difference in grappling prowess from Dern to Granger honestly is like comparing the grappling of prime Demian Maia vs the grappling of someone like (since he's fighting today) Brendan Allen. It's just not comparable. Dern might literally be the best female grappler of all time when she cares. Granger is...Granger. A girl with some subs on her record vs nobodies.

I don't know if I like Yoder, but she at least seems to be improving. At the least she has to be considered a live dog. Plus...WMMA variable.
 
mmaday4day said:
Which mod did you piss off to receive double yellow?
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I called those 2 Russian MMA fighters who praised that beheading in Vienna a homophobic slur that is auto-censored on Sherdog...
Straight doubles

Then I got a warning a day or 2 after for fighter bashing, apparently supplements = PEDs
 
mkess101 said:
Gonna add: I agree on Allen's TD's. Not amazing. Strickland has okay TDD, but the good wrestlers he's faced have put him on his back. I will say his get ups are solid, although Allen is very good at making guys pay by getting their backs when they try to get up. Also...Court McGee is so much slower on his entries than Allen, not sure it's a good measuring stick. Maybe not 10 years ago when he was winning TUF, but by 2017 when he fought Strickland he had become a big time plodder.

The thing about Allen is that he doesn't seem (so far anyway) to get frustrated if he gets stuffed on a TD or 2. So yeah maybe he doesn't hit his first 2 and eats some shots (seems to have a good chin) but then he times the third one right and the rest of the round is him winning via grappling.

It's such an intriguing fight between two guys that I really like watching. I won't be shocked at all by any result. Hell, even Allen landing some wild haymaker he throws off faking a shot wouldn't totally shock me. Nor would Strickland doing better in the grappling than people (myself included) think he will.
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Keep in mind we haven’t seen stricklands grappling in over two years. We saw improvements in his striking and from the sound of it he’s also worked on his ground game.
 
So with the Anders fight scrapped it looks like the new start time is 4:00 central?
 
Post 2 Decision said:
I called those 2 Russian MMA fighters who praised that beheading in Vienna a homophobic slur that is auto-censored on Sherdog...
Straight doubles

Then I got a warning a day or 2 after for fighter bashing, apparently supplements = PEDs
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Oh boy

<TheWire1>
 
dispute Alhassan missing a bit of weight i still think he looked fine though. I do like Williams a bit more for the co event.
 
Can someone explain the Murata/Markos line? Markos has been fighting the elite of the elite and has some good wins (Hill/Esparza). Murata has been scraping by her opponents. How is murata a 2-1 favorite?
 
mkess101 said:
Wrong thread I know but want you to see this, maybe reply in other thread and not official bets thread so we don't piss anyone off LOL.

Thoughts on Allen/Strickland? It's for sure the fight I'm most intrigued by. Not for betting reasons (I have some DK lineups but that's it so I guess some small $ on the line) but want your take on the fight itself.
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@mkess101

For a certain pick'em contest, I went ahead and chose Allen. This isn't based on any deep analysis, but merely skepticism about how well Strickland has recovered from the motorcycle accident, which traditionally screws up a fighter's knees, hips, and thus takedown defense and ability to get back up from the bottom. I'll always remember Frank Mir versus Marcio Cruz or Daniel Straus versus Derek Campos.
 
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